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Tropical Storm Ileana Forecast Discussion Number 7
2018-08-06 10:59:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Aug 06 2018 011 WTPZ41 KNHC 060859 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Ileana Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112018 400 AM CDT Mon Aug 06 2018 A strong burst of deep convection consisting of some cloud top temperatures of -85 to -90 deg C near the center has developed during the past several hours. A Central Dense Overcast (CDO) feature has developed as a result, and the Acapulco, Mexico, radar indicates that a banded eye feature has developed in the center of the CDO. Based on the radar data and a UW-CIMSS ADT estimate of T3.6/57 kt, the initial intensity has been increased to 55 kt. Ileana has begun to accelerate around the eastern periphery of rapidly developing Tropical Storm John, and initial motion estimate is now 310/15 kt. Little change was made to the previous forecast track other than to nudge the forecast a little more to the right, closer to Mexico, due to the more eastward initial position based on the aforementioned radar data. Ileana is expected to continue moving northwestward between Tropical Storm John and a deep-layer ridge over Mexico. The NHC model guidance remains in good agreement on this track scenario until dissipation or absorption occurs in about 72 hours, and the new forecast track lies close to the HCCA and FSSE consensus track model solutions. The shear is forecast to decrease to around 15 kt over the next 24 hours, and the global model fields actually indicate that the shear could be lower than that since most of the stronger outflow from Tropical Storm John will remain north of Ileana. Based on the expected lower shear conditions, a very moist atmosphere, SSTs near 30 deg C, and the much improved internal structure noted in radar data, Ileana is forecast to become a hurricane within the next 24 hours. The official intensity forecast follows the upward trend of the consensus models FSSE and HCCA, but is a little lower and closer to the IVCN intensity consensus model. The forecast tropical-storm-force wind radii in the new official forecast has been expanded to the northeast based on recent ASCAT wind data. Although the core of strongest winds are forecast to remain offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico, only a slight deviation to the right of track and/or strong localized funneling effects would bring hurricane-force winds onshore. As a result, the government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch from Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 15.2N 100.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 16.5N 102.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 18.5N 105.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 07/1800Z 20.3N 107.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 08/0600Z 21.6N 110.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Ileana Forecast Discussion Number 6
2018-08-06 04:51:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sun Aug 05 2018 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 060251 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Ileana Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112018 1000 PM CDT Sun Aug 05 2018 A new burst of deep convection developed near the low-level center beginning around 2200 UTC. A second ASCAT pass earlier this afternoon showed winds of 40-45 kt, while SATCON estimates from UW-CIMSS were a little above 50 kt. Given these data, Ileana's maximum winds are estimated to be 45 kt. The shear is forecast to be on the order of 15 kt, which is not the most ideal environment for strengthening, but the cyclone will also be moving over very warm waters of 30-31 degrees Celsius and through a moisture-laden environment. Nearly all of the intensity models indicate additional strengthening, with some, such as the SHIPS and LGEM models, bringing Ileana near or to hurricane strength in a day or so. On the flip side, the GFS and ECMWF have Ileana opening up into a trough on the northern side of Tropical Storm John in 36-48 hours. Given the large spread in model scenarios, the updated NHC intensity forecast is increased only a little from the previous advisory. A 48-hour forecast is still provided for continuity, but if the GFS and ECMWF are right, the cyclone could dissipate by that time. Ileana is moving a little faster toward the west-northwest with an initial motion of 290/11 kt. Additional acceleration with a turn toward the northwest is expected over the next day or so as the cyclone moves between Tropical Storm John and large-scale ridging over Mexico and the southern United States. The updated NHC track forecast is essentially right along the projection from the previous advisory, but it is a little faster to account for the speedier GFS, ECMWF, and HCCA solutions. The forecast tropical-storm-force wind radii in the new official forecast now graze the coast of southwestern Mexico, and as a result, the government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes. Even though Ileana is forecast to dissipate after 48 hours, it is not out of the question that the cyclone could last a little longer, and interests on the southern Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of the storm. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 14.3N 99.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 15.3N 101.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 17.2N 103.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 19.1N 106.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 08/0000Z 20.9N 108.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm John Forecast Discussion Number 2
2018-08-06 04:50:51| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 900 PM MDT Sun Aug 05 2018
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Hurricane Hector Forecast Discussion Number 23
2018-08-06 04:33:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sun Aug 05 2018 225 WTPZ45 KNHC 060233 TCDEP5 Hurricane Hector Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102018 800 PM PDT Sun Aug 05 2018 Hector has changed little in organization since the previous special advisory, and the various satellite intensity estimates are in the 115-125 kt range. Based on these data, the initial intensity remains 120 kt. The forecast track takes the cyclone over an area of cooler water between 24-60 h and into a drier air mass after 60 h, and based on this the intensity forecast continues the trend of the previous forecast in showing a gradual weakening through the forecast period. There are two caveats to this forecast, however. The first is that Hector will move over warmer water after 60 h, and the HWRF amd LGEM models are suggesting re-intensification could occur from 96-120 h. Second, the environment of light easterly shear and moderate sea surface temperatures could allow Hector to evolve into an annular hurricane, which would cause it to stay more intense than the guidance and the official forecast are indicating. The hurricane is starting a northward nudge that the track models have been advertising, and the initial motion is now 280/12. The subtropical ridge to the north of Hector should steer it west-northwestward with an increase in forward speed for the next 24-36 h, followed by a more westerly motion to the south of the Hawaiian Islands for the remainder of the forecast period. Track guidance has become less divergent since yesterday, and the new forecast track lies near the center of the track guidance envelope. While the official forecast track continues to lie south of the Hawaiian Islands, only a slight deviation to the north of the forecast track would significantly increase potential impacts on the Hawaiian Islands. Now is a good time for everyone in the Hawaiian Islands to ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place. For additional information on any potential local impacts from Hector in Hawaii, please refer to products issued by the NWS Weather Forecast Office in Honolulu at: http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl . This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Hector. Future information on this system can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center beginning at 11 PM HST, under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP1, WMO header WTPA31 PHFO, and on the web at http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc . FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 14.7N 139.2W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 15.1N 141.1W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 15.8N 144.1W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 16.2N 147.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 08/0000Z 16.6N 150.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 09/0000Z 17.0N 156.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 10/0000Z 17.0N 162.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 11/0000Z 17.5N 168.0W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Hector Forecast Discussion Number 22
2018-08-06 01:54:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 PM PDT Sun Aug 05 2018 830 WTPZ45 KNHC 052354 TCDEP5 Hurricane Hector Special Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102018 500 PM PDT Sun Aug 05 2018 This special advisory is to update the initial and forecast intensities for Hector. Satellite data indicate that the hurricane has continued to strengthen during the past 6 h, and the initial intensity has increased to at least 120 kt. Based on this, the intensities for the first 36 h of the forecast have been increased. There are no changes to the forecast track, the wind radii, or the intensities from 48-120 h. The NOAA G-IV aircraft is releasing dropsondes as it circumnavigates Hector during its flight to Hawaii to support forecast operations over the next few days. Data from these dropsondes should be incorporated into this evening's 0000 UTC dynamical models. While the official forecast track continues to lie south of the Hawaiian Islands, only a slight deviation to the north of the forecast track would significantly increase potential impacts on the Hawaiian Islands. It is a good time for everyone in the Hawaiian Islands to ensure they have their hurricane plan in place. For additional information on any potential local impacts from Hector in Hawaii, please refer to products issued by the NWS Weather Forecast Office in Honolulu at: http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0000Z 14.5N 138.6W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 14.7N 139.8W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 15.3N 142.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 15.9N 145.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 16.4N 148.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 08/1800Z 16.7N 154.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 09/1800Z 17.0N 160.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 10/1800Z 17.7N 166.0W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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