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Hurricane John Forecast Discussion Number 10
2018-08-08 04:29:08| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 900 PM MDT Tue Aug 07 2018
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Hurricane John Forecast Discussion Number 9
2018-08-07 22:34:20| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue Aug 07 2018
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Tropical Storm Kristy Forecast Discussion Number 4
2018-08-07 22:33:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Aug 07 2018 103 WTPZ43 KNHC 072033 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132018 200 PM PDT Tue Aug 07 2018 Geostationary satellite and microwave images indicate that Kristy has well-defined curved bands, but the convection in these bands has decreased during the past several hours. A recent ASCAT pass showed maximum winds of about 40 kt. Based on that data and Dvorak classifications, the initial intensity is again held at 45 kt. Kristy has been moving just south of due west during the past 12 hours, and the initial motion estimate is 260/11 kt. The models agree that a decrease in forward speed and a turn to the west-northwest is expected to begin tonight or on Wednesday, but that is about all they agree on for the future track of Kristy. There remains significant spread in the models about how the storm will interact with Hurricane John to its northeast. The GFS continues to show Kristy being pulled northward and then northeastward into the outer circulation of John. On the other hand, the ECMWF has been consistent in showing little interaction between the tropical cyclones, and keeps Kristy moving on a westward or west-northwestward path. The NHC official track forecast lies between these scenarios and is close to the recent run of the UKMET model. This forecast has been adjusted to the north and east of the previous one to get closer to the middle of the guidance envelope. It should be noted that the track forecast is of low confidence given the very different model solutions. Kristy's struggles are likely due to the influences of dry air and moderate shear. The SHIPS model shows the shear decreasing during the next couple of days, which could allow the storm to gradually strengthening during that time period. Beyond a couple of days, however, cooler waters and a more stable airmass should end the strengthening trend and result in weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one and lies close to the HCCA model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 13.7N 127.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 13.9N 128.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 14.5N 129.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 09/0600Z 15.4N 129.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 09/1800Z 16.4N 130.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 10/1800Z 18.5N 130.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 11/1800Z 21.0N 130.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 12/1800Z 23.0N 132.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Subtropical Storm Debby Forecast Discussion Number 2
2018-08-07 22:32:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Aug 07 2018 716 WTNT44 KNHC 072032 TCDAT4 Subtropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042018 500 PM AST Tue Aug 07 2018 Debby's cloud pattern consists of a cyclonically curved convective band wrapping around a large but somewhat vigorous circulation. TAFB provided a subtropical classification of ST2.5, while an earlier ship located to the east of the center reported 35 kt. These data is used to assign the current intensity of the subtropical cyclone. Although transition to a tropical cyclone is still possible during the next 24 hours, no significant strengthening is anticipated since Debby will soon be moving over cool waters and become fully embedded within a larger mid-latitude trough in a day or so. Debby is forecast to dissipate in about 48 hours or earlier. The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the north or 355 degrees at 13 kt. The subtropical storm should continue on this general track with a decrease in forward speed for the next 24 hours or so and then turn to the northeast ahead of the trough, which will eventually absorb Debby. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 39.7N 49.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 41.0N 49.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 42.3N 48.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 09/0600Z 44.0N 46.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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Subtropical Storm Debby Forecast Discussion Number 1
2018-08-07 16:55:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Aug 07 2018 899 WTNT44 KNHC 071455 TCDAT4 Subtropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042018 1100 AM AST Tue Aug 07 2018 The non-tropical low that NHC has been tracking over the North Atlantic for the past few days has developed subtropical characteristics and has been upgraded to subtropical storm status. The tropical-storm-force winds associated with Debby are well removed from the center as indicated by a recent ASCAT pass and are occurring within a cyclonically curved band of moderate convection. Although transition to a tropical cyclone is possible, no significant strengthening is anticipated since the cyclone will soon be moving over cool water and become fully embedded within a larger mid-latitude trough approaching from the west. Debby is expected to dissipate in about 48 hours or earlier. The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the north or 355 degrees at 14 kt. The subtropical storm should continue on this general track with a decrease in forward speed for the next 24 hours or so and then turn to the northeast ahead of the trough, which will eventually absorb Debby. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 38.9N 48.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 41.0N 48.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 42.7N 48.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 44.0N 47.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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