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Tropical Storm Ileana Forecast Discussion Number 9

2018-08-06 22:34:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Aug 06 2018 223 WTPZ41 KNHC 062034 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Ileana Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112018 400 PM CDT Mon Aug 06 2018 There have been significant changes to the forecast reasoning for Ileana. Recent satellite imagery suggest that the system is being adversely affected by the large circulation of John much sooner than anticipated. In fact, Ileana is looking more like an outer band of John at this time. Nonetheless, a recent ASCAT overpass indicated that Ileana is still a separate system to the east-northeast of John and continues to support a current intensity of 55 kt. However given the evolution of Ileana today, the previous NHC short-term intensity forecast is reversed. Ileana is no longer predicted to become a hurricane, and the tropical cyclone is likely to dissipate or become absorbed by John's circulation in 24-36 hours. It should be noted that some models, such as the HWRF, GFS, and ECMWF depict Ileana's demise even sooner than that. Since the cloud pattern of Ileana has become rather disorganized, it is difficult to track a center and the initial motion is an uncertain 305/15 kt. The cyclone should move between a mid-level ridge and the circulation of John until dissipation. The official track forecast is a little left of the previous one, but a little to the right of the track model consensus. The 34- and 50-kt wind radii have been adjusted based on the scatterometer data. The hurricane watch for the southwest coast of Mexico is discontinued. The tropical storm watch for the extreme southern Baja California peninsula is also discontinued for Ileana, but a watch for this same general are may soon be required for John. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 17.0N 103.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 18.2N 105.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 19.5N 109.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Tropical Storm John Forecast Discussion Number 4

2018-08-06 17:23:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 AM MDT Mon Aug 06 2018 669 WTPZ42 KNHC 061522 CCB TCDEP2 Tropical Storm John Discussion Number 4...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122018 900 AM MDT Mon Aug 06 2018 Corrected to remove the percent symbols in the text Early morning visible satellite images and recent microwave data show that John continues to quickly become better organized. Banding features now wrap nearly completely around the center, with the development of a fairly symmetric CDO. One-minute GOES-16 imagery also show several overshooting convective cloud tops near and to the east of the center. A TAFB Dvorak estimate of T3.5 was the basis of the 1200 UTC intensity of 55 kt, but with the increase in organization since that time, and raw objective T-numbers above 4.0 for the past few hours, the advisory intensity has been increased to 60 kt. John is within a very favorable environment for intensification. The hurricane will be moving over SSTs around 30C, and in a low shear and moist environment. These conditions are expected to allow for rapid strengthening during the next day or so. The SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index shows a nearly 80 percent chance of RI over the the next 24 h, and DTOPS gives an 80 percent chance of a 40 kt increase in intensity during the next 24 h. Based on these data and the very aggressive guidance, the NHC forecast calls for a 40 kt increase in strength from 1200 this morning through 1200 UTC Tuesday. The NHC forecast calls for a peak intensity that is close to the FSSE and HCCA models in 36 to 48 hours. After that time, John will be moving over cooler waters and into a more stable environment which is expected to cause rapid weakening. John is moving west-northwestward at about 7 kt. The tropical storm should turn northwestward and accelerate over the next day or so as it is steered around the western portion of a mid-level ridge that is centered over northern Mexico. As noted in the previous discussion, some interaction with Ileana is likely, which could cause some slow down of the forward speed of John. However since John is the larger system, it should remain the dominant tropical cyclone. The latest dynamical model guidance was similar to the previous cycle and no significant change to the NHC forecast was required. The NHC forecast is in best agreement with the ECMWF and is close to the HFIP corrected consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 15.5N 107.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 16.0N 108.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 17.0N 109.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 18.3N 111.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 08/1200Z 19.8N 112.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 09/1200Z 22.9N 116.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 10/1200Z 25.5N 120.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 11/1200Z 26.8N 125.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Storm John Forecast Discussion Number 4

2018-08-06 17:13:55| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 900 AM MDT Mon Aug 06 2018

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Tropical Storm Ileana Forecast Discussion Number 8

2018-08-06 16:39:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Mon Aug 06 2018 557 WTPZ41 KNHC 061439 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Ileana Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112018 1000 AM CDT Mon Aug 06 2018 Ileana continues to produce very deep convection near its center, with cloud tops colder than -80 deg C. Microwave imagery and the Acapulco radar have shown some eyewall structure, at least at mid-levels. Although conventional Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB provided intensity estimates of only 45 kt, the advisory intensity is kept at 55 kt in better agreement with SATCON estimates from UW-CIMSS. Since Ileana will be in a moist, low-shear, and warm water environment, the system is likely to strengthen into a hurricane within 12 hours or so, with some additional intensification through Tuesday morning. Thereafter, the influence of the much larger circulation of John to the southwest is expected to begin having an adverse effect on Ileana. The system should begin weakening later on Tuesday, and dissipate or become absorbed by John on Wednesday. This is the scenario that is depicted by the ECMWF and GFS global model guidance. Ileana continues to move briskly toward the northwest or about 310/15 kt. The tropical cyclone is expected to move between a mid-level ridge and the circulation of John for the next couple of days. The official track forecast is a little to the left of the previous one but a little north of the latest multi-model consensus. No changes to the watches and warnings are required at this time. Although the core of strongest winds is forecast to remain offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico, only a slight deviation to the right of track could bring stronger winds onshore, particularly in the area where the hurricane watch has been posted. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 16.3N 101.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 17.8N 104.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 19.3N 107.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 20.5N 109.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 08/1200Z 21.5N 111.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Tropical Storm John Forecast Discussion Number 3

2018-08-06 10:59:24| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 300 AM MDT Mon Aug 06 2018

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