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Hurricane Bud Forecast Discussion Number 6

2018-06-11 04:36:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sun Jun 10 2018 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 110236 TCDEP3 Hurricane Bud Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 1000 PM CDT Sun Jun 10 2018 Satellite data suggest that Bud is strengthening. Shortwave infrared images and an SSMIS pass from a few hours ago indicate that Bud's inner core and banding features are becoming better defined, and an eye feature has recently become evident in most satellite channels. However, deep convection is not yet symmetric with the strongest convection remaining to the east of the center. The 00Z Dvorak classifications ranged from 55 to 75 kt, and the initial intensity is set to 70 kt, closer to the high end of the range given the improved structure of the inner core during the past several hours. Bud is moving northwestward at 9 kt on the southwestern side of a mid-level ridge centered over Mexico. This general heading with a decrease in forward speed is forecast during the next few days. Some of the models show Bud stalling on Tuesday or Wednesday as the steering currents weaken between the ridge to the north of the hurricane and a developing mid- to upper-level low to its west. After that time, the mid- to upper-level low is expected to weaken, allowing Bud to resume a northwestward to north-northwestward motion toward the Baja California peninsula. The track model guidance is in fairly good agreement, and the NHC forecast lies near the various consensus aids. This prediction is largely an update of the previous one. A recent 37 GHz GMI microwave pass indicated a closed ring around the eye, which is often a precursor of rapid intensification. Based on this structure and conducive environmental conditions, rapid intensification is forecast during the next 24 hours. This forecast though, unlike the previous one, does call for slow weakening beyond 24 hours as the expected slow motion of Bud could cause cool water to upwell, ending the strengthening trend. More significant weakening is predicted to begin in 2 to 3 days when Bud tracks over progressively cooler waters and into a more stable air mass. The NHC intensity forecast is above the guidance in the short term, given the aforementioned signals of intensification, but falls in line with the guidance thereafter. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 16.0N 104.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 11/1200Z 16.7N 105.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 12/0000Z 17.5N 106.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 12/1200Z 18.0N 107.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 13/0000Z 18.4N 107.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 14/0000Z 19.9N 108.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 15/0000Z 21.7N 109.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 16/0000Z 24.1N 110.4W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Tropical Storm Aletta Forecast Discussion Number 22

2018-06-11 04:33:03| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 800 PM PDT Sun Jun 10 2018

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Hurricane Bud Forecast Discussion Number 5

2018-06-10 22:42:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Jun 10 2018 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 102041 TCDEP3 Hurricane Bud Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 400 PM CDT Sun Jun 10 2018 The cloud pattern of Bud has continued to become better organized, and a ragged eye has become apparent intermittently on visible images. T-numbers from TAFB and CIMSS have reached 4.0 on the Dvorak scale, so Bud has been upgraded to hurricane status with 65- kt winds in this advisory. The environment continues to be quite favorable for strengthening, while the rapid intensification indexes continue to be high. On this basis, the NHC forecast, which is very close to both the corrected consensus HCCA and FSSE models calls for additional strengthening for the next 24 hours or so. Beyond 48 hours, a steady state or weakening should begin as the cyclone approaches the cold waters near the Baja California peninsula. The best estimate of the initial motion continues to be toward the northwest or 315 degrees at 8 kt. Bud is being steered by the flow around the periphery of a high pressure system over the western United States. In about 3 days, Bud is expected to reach the western edge of the high, and the cyclone should then begin to turn toward the north-northwest and then northward. There is high confidence in the track forecast for the next 3 days since guidance continues to be in quite good agreement. After that time, the guidance becomes less reliable, but in general, all models bring a weakening tropical cyclone over or near Baja California peninsula. Although the core of Bud is expected to pass well off the southwestern coast of Mexico, the hurricane is accompanied by rainbands mainly to the east of the center. These bands have the possibility of producing tropical-storm-force winds along a portion of the coast. Consequently, the Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for a small portion of the coast from Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 15.3N 104.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 11/0600Z 16.4N 105.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 11/1800Z 17.2N 106.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 12/0600Z 18.0N 107.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 12/1800Z 18.5N 107.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 13/1800Z 19.7N 108.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 14/1800Z 21.5N 109.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 15/1800Z 24.0N 110.5W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila

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Tropical Storm Aletta Forecast Discussion Number 21

2018-06-10 22:33:55| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Jun 10 2018

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Tropical Storm Aletta Forecast Discussion Number 20

2018-06-10 16:32:53| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Jun 10 2018

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