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Tropical Storm Bud Forecast Discussion Number 18
2018-06-14 04:12:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Wed Jun 13 2018 ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Bud Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 900 PM MDT Wed Jun 13 2018 After steadily weakening today, Bud's intensity appears to have leveled off for now. The cloud pattern of the tropical storm has generally changed little during the past several hours, with deep convection mostly confined to a curved band that wraps around the eastern half of the circulation. Earlier ASCAT data indicated that the maximum winds were around 45 kt, and since the system has generally changed little in structure since that time, the initial intensity is held at that value. This intensity estimate is also in agreement with an average of the Dvorak T- and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB. Bud is moving north-northwestward at 6 kt on the southwestern side of a mid-level ridge over Mexico and the southwestern U.S. This general motion is expected during the next 24 hours or so, and that should take Bud across the southern portion of Baja California Sur by late Thursday. After that time, a trough approaching the tropical storm should cause the system to accelerate to the north and north-northeast across the Gulf of California and over mainland Mexico. The models are in very good agreement, and only small adjustments were made to the previous track forecast. Gradual weakening is expected to resume soon as Bud moves over cooler SSTs and into a more stable air mass on its approach to Baja California Sur. Once Bud moves inland over mainland Mexico, the surface circulation will likely dissipate and even though a 72-h position is provided below, it is unlikely that Bud will survive that long due to the rugged terrain. The NHC intensity forecast follows the trend in the model guidance, and is generally an update of the previous one. Bud's remnant moisture plume is expected to spread northward and northeastward into northwestern Mexico and the U.S. Desert Southwest on Friday and Saturday, resulting in significant rainfall and possible flash flooding across those areas. For further information on the heavy rainfall threat, please see products issued by your local weather service office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 20.5N 109.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 21.4N 109.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 22.6N 109.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 24.3N 110.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 16/0000Z 26.8N 109.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 17/0000Z 33.0N 108.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi NNNN
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Tropical Storm Bud Forecast Discussion Number 17
2018-06-13 22:35:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Wed Jun 13 2018 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 132034 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Bud Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 300 PM MDT Wed Jun 13 2018 Bud has continued to steadily weaken as deep convection has been non-existent in the inner-core region for more than 6 hours now. A couple of recent ASCAT overpasses indicated a few 42-kt wind vectors in the northeastern quadrant. Even allowing for some undersampling of the small wind field, those data only support winds of about 45 kt, and that is the intensity used for this advisory. Bud has been moving in a steadier north-northwestward motion of about 345/05 kt over the past 6 h. The blocking ridge to the north of Bud is beginning to weaken and shift slowly eastward. This trend is expected to continue through the remainder of the forecast period as a mid-/upper-level trough approaches Baja California from the northwest. Southerly flow between the ridge and the approaching trough will gradually increase and induce a northward component of motion by Thursday, followed by a gradual turn toward the north-northeast and northeast on Friday. The latest NHC model guidance remains tightly packed about the previous few forecast tracks, so significant changes were required on this advisory package. Bud will be moving over sub-26C SSTs within the next 6 hours or so, which will act to inhibit inner-core convection from redeveloping, resulting in a slow spin down and weakening of the cyclone. However, there will be enough available instability in outer portion of the circulation to help maintain a convective banding structure, which should be sufficient to maintain Bud as a tropical storm until it reaches Baja California in about 36 hours. After that, interaction with the mountainous terrain of Baja California Sur and northwestern Mexico should promote more significant weakening, and Bud is expected to become a remnant low or dissipate shortly after 72 hours when the system is inland over northwestern Mexico. Bud's remnant moisture plume is expected to spread northward and northeastward into northwestern Mexico and the U.S. Desert Southwest over the weekend, resulting in significant rainfall and possible flash flooding across those areas. For further information on the heavy rainfall threat, please see products issued by your local weather service office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 19.9N 108.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 20.7N 109.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 21.8N 109.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 23.3N 109.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND OVER SRN BAJA 48H 15/1800Z 25.6N 109.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 16/1800Z 31.5N 108.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Bud Forecast Discussion Number 16
2018-06-13 16:57:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Wed Jun 13 2018 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 131457 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Bud Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 900 AM MDT Wed Jun 13 2018 Bud has continued to rapidly weaken due to significant upwelling of colder water beneath the cyclone, resulting in a pronounced erosion of the deep convection in the inner-core region. Sea-surface temperature data from U-Miami RSMAS indicate that Bud has churned up a cold wake that is least 3 deg C cooler than the surrounding ocean temperatures. The initial intensity of 55 kt is based on average of T- and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB. Bud has been wobbling slowly about a north-northwestward track of about 340/04 kt for the past 12 h, and that is the motion used for this advisory. A deep-layer ridge located over the southwestern United States that has been partly blocking Bud's poleward trek is expected to slowly weaken and shift eastward during the next 72 h, giving way to an approaching mid-latitude trough. The increasing southerly flow between the ridge and the approaching trough will gradually induce a more northward component of motion by Thursday, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast on Friday. No change has been made to the previous NHC track forecast, and the new advisory is similar to the previous one and lies along the eastern edge of the model guidance envelope. Now that Bud has weakened to a tropical storm, significant upwelling beneath the cyclone should abate somewhat. However, Bud will be moving over sub-26C SSTs within the next 6-12 h, which will act to keep the atmosphere only marginally conducive for the formation of significant convection despite the vertical wind shear remaining quite favorable at only around 5 kt. A gradual spin down of Bud's circulation is expected until landfall occurs on southern Baja California Sur, followed by more significant erosion of the wind field on Friday due to cyclone interacting with the mountainous terrain of Baja California Sur and northwestern Mexico. The new intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and the Decay-SHIPS intensity model, and is slightly below the intensity consensus models. Despite Bud's expected weakening, the cyclone is still anticipated to be a tropical storm when it reaches southern Baja California Sur in 36-48 hours. Bud's remnant moisture plume is expected to spread northward and northeastward into northwestern Mexico and the U.S. Desert Southwest over the weekend, resulting in significant rainfall and possible flash flooding across those areas. For further information on the heavy rainfall threat, please see products issued by your local weather service office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 19.4N 108.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 20.1N 109.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 14/1200Z 21.1N 109.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 15/0000Z 22.4N 109.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 15/1200Z 24.2N 109.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 16/1200Z 29.3N 109.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 17/1200Z 35.5N 106.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane Bud Forecast Discussion Number 15
2018-06-13 10:34:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Wed Jun 13 2018 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 130833 TCDEP3 Hurricane Bud Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 300 AM MDT Wed Jun 13 2018 Bud continues to be adversely affect by cooler waters and decreasing oceanic heat content. The eye has disappeared from geostationary imagery, and the inner core convection has been eroded. Using a blend of objective and subjective Dvorak estimates, the current intensity is set at 65 kt for this advisory. Bud should encounter even cooler waters over the next day or so, which should result in additional weakening. The official intensity forecast is similar to the latest model consensus and to the DSHIPS output. Despite Bud's expected weakening, the cyclone is still anticipated to be a tropical storm when it reaches southern Baja California Sur in about 48 hours. A mid-level high centered over the southwestern United States has been partly blocking Bud's north-northwestward advance and the current motion of the cyclone is about 330/4 kt. A mid-level trough approaching southern California and the northern Baja California peninsula should cause Bud to move faster toward the north in a couple of days. Not much change has been made to the previous official forecast, and the new NHC forecast is close the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach, HCCA, track. Bud's remnant moisture plume is expected to spread northward and northeastward into northwestern Mexico and the U.S. Desert Southwest over the weekend, resulting in significant rains and possible flash flooding across those areas. For further information on the heavy rainfall threat, please see products issued by your local weather service office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 19.1N 108.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 13/1800Z 19.6N 109.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 14/0600Z 20.6N 109.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 14/1800Z 21.6N 109.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 15/0600Z 23.1N 110.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 16/0600Z 27.5N 110.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 17/0600Z 34.0N 107.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Bud Forecast Discussion Number 14
2018-06-13 04:32:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Tue Jun 12 2018 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 130232 TCDEP3 Hurricane Bud Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 900 PM MDT Tue Jun 12 2018 Upwelled cold water is taking its toll on Bud. The hurricane no longer has an eye, and the deep convection is favoring the southern side of the circulation. Satellite intensity estimates are decreasing precipitously, with CI numbers ranging from 4.3/72 kt from the UW-CIMSS ADT to 5.0/90 kt from TAFB. The advisory intensity is set at 80 kt, near the midpoint of this range. Bud is situated almost due south of a mid-level high anchored over New Mexico, which is only allowing the hurricane to creep north-northwestward (330 degrees) at 3 kt. The ridge is not expected to move much during the next couple of days, but a deepening trough extending from California southward should cause Bud to gradually gain speed and turn toward the north by 48 hours. After 48 hours, the trough is forecast to move inland and push the ridge to the east, allowing Bud to accelerate northward over the Baja California Peninsula and northwestern Mexico on days 3 and 4. The track guidance is tightly clustered, and the new NHC forecast is very close to the TVCX multi-model consensus. This forecast is along the previous track for the first 48 hours and then slightly to the east on days 3 and 4. Bud will be moving over even colder waters in the coming days, which will zap the hurricane of its energy and cause it to steadily weaken as it approaches the Baja California Peninsula. The updated NHC intensity forecast is lower than the previous forecast during the first 36 hours to account for the lower initial intensity, and it is fairly close to the IVCN intensity consensus. Bud is likely to weaken to a tropical storm within 24 hours, and then become a tropical depression after crossing the Baja California Peninsula. Despite Bud's expected weakening, the cyclone is anticipated to be a tropical storm when it reaches southern Baja California Sur in 48 hours, and the government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch from Santa Fe to La Paz. Bud's remnant moisture plume is expected to spread northward and northeastward into northwestern Mexico and the U.S. Desert Southwest over the weekend, resulting in significant rains and possible flash flooding across those areas. For further information on the heavy rainfall threat, please see products issued by your local weather service office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 18.7N 108.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 13/1200Z 19.3N 108.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 14/0000Z 20.2N 109.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 14/1200Z 21.1N 109.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 15/0000Z 22.3N 110.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 16/0000Z 25.9N 110.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 17/0000Z 32.5N 109.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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