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Hurricane Bud Forecast Discussion Number 9
2018-06-11 22:32:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Mon Jun 11 2018 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 112032 TCDEP3 Hurricane Bud Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 300 PM MDT Mon Jun 11 2018 The organization of the cloud pattern has improved overall, but the eye has been fluctuating between clear and obscure. An average of TAFB/SAB subjective T-numbers and much higher objective values from UW/CIMSS yield an initial intensity of 105 kt. Bud still has the opportunity to gain some additional strength during the next 12 hours or so before the environmental conditions become less conducive and the cyclone gradually encounters the cooler waters near the Baja California peninsula in about 3 days. By then, Bud is expected to be below hurricane strength. The official intensity forecast is in between the Corrected Consensus HCCA model, which weakens Bud fast, and the SHIPS guidance which shows a more gradual decay. Bud appears to be moving toward the northwest or 315 degrees at about 6 kt. The steering pattern is well established while Bud continues to be embedded within the flow around a subtropical ridge centered over Mexico and the southwestern United States. Once Bud reaches the southwestern edge of the ridge in about 24 to 36 hours, it should gradually turn north-northwestward and then northward toward the Baja California peninsula. The NHC forecast is not different from the previous one and is in the middle of the guidance envelope. It is also a little to the west of the HCCA corrected consensus and the FSSE, which are among the rightmost of the models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/2100Z 17.0N 107.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 12/0600Z 17.5N 108.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 12/1800Z 18.2N 108.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 13/0600Z 19.0N 108.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 13/1800Z 19.7N 109.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 14/1800Z 21.5N 110.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 15/1800Z 24.5N 111.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 16/1800Z 28.5N 111.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND $$ Forecaster Avila
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Hurricane Bud Forecast Discussion Number 8
2018-06-11 16:40:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Mon Jun 11 2018 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 111439 TCDEP3 Hurricane Bud Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 900 AM MDT Mon Jun 11 2018 There have been some fluctuations in the amount of deep convection surrounding the ragged eye during the past several hours, but the overall trend has been upward. Although the subjective T-numbers have not changed significantly, NHC and UW/CIMMS objective numbers have increased, and support an initial intensity of 105 kt for this advisory. Bud has the opportunity to gain some additional strength during the next 12 to 24 hours before the environmental conditions become less conducive. A faster weakening is expected to occur when Bud moves over the cooler waters near the Baja California peninsula. By then, Bud is expected to be below hurricane strength. The official intensity forecast closely follows the Corrected Consensus HCCA model, which has been performing well. Satellite fixes indicate that Bud is moving toward the northwest or 310 degrees at about 6 kt. The hurricane continues to be steered by the weak flow around a subtropical ridge centered over Mexico and the southwestern United States. Once Bud reaches the southwestern edge of the ridge in about 24 to 36 hours, it should gradually turn north-northwestward and then northward toward the Baja California peninsula. The NHC forecast is not different from the previous one and is in between HCCA and the multi-model ensemble. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1500Z 16.7N 106.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 12/0000Z 17.2N 107.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 12/1200Z 17.8N 108.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 13/0000Z 18.3N 108.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 13/1200Z 19.0N 108.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 14/1200Z 20.7N 109.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 15/1200Z 22.5N 110.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 16/1200Z 24.5N 110.5W 25 KT 30 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Depression Aletta Forecast Discussion Number 24
2018-06-11 16:38:10| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 800 AM PDT Mon Jun 11 2018
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Tropical Storm Aletta Forecast Discussion Number 23
2018-06-11 10:37:05| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 200 AM PDT Mon Jun 11 2018
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Hurricane Bud Forecast Discussion Number 7
2018-06-11 10:34:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Mon Jun 11 2018 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 110833 TCDEP3 Hurricane Bud Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 300 AM MDT Mon Jun 11 2018 After an abrupt strengthening episode around 0300-0500 UTC, Bud seems to have at least temporarily leveled off since the eye has recently become less distinct. The intensity estimate of 90 kt is based on a subjective Dvorak classification from TAFB, and ADT estimates from UW/CIMSS that were a little higher. Bud should remain in a favorable environment for strengthening through today, and gradually cooling water temperatures are expected to induce a slow weakening trend thereafter. The official intensity forecast is a little above the latest model consensus. Significantly cooler waters around the southern tip of Baja California should reduce Bud's intensity below hurricane status before it reaches that land area. The hurricane tracked a little more westward overnight, but the initial motion is still estimated to be northwest, or 305/9 kt. A weak mid-level ridge over Mexico and the southwestern United States is expected to persist for the next few days. Bud is expected to move along the southwestern periphery of the ridge and turn toward the north-northwest in 1-2 days. Around that time, the steering flow is expected to become quite weak and Bud's forward speed is forecast to slow to 3-4 kt. Later in the forecast period, the ridge become slightly stronger so Bud should move at least a little faster toward the Baja peninsula. The official forecast is similar to the previous one and roughly in the middle of the track guidance. The 34- and 50-kt wind radii have been reduced slightly based on data from the latest ASCAT overpass. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 16.3N 106.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 11/1800Z 17.1N 106.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 12/0600Z 17.7N 107.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 12/1800Z 18.2N 107.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 13/0600Z 18.7N 107.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 14/0600Z 20.4N 108.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 15/0600Z 22.2N 109.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 16/0600Z 24.0N 110.2W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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