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Hurricane Bud Forecast Discussion Number 13
2018-06-12 22:51:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue Jun 12 2018 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 122051 TCDEP3 Hurricane Bud Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 300 PM MDT Tue Jun 12 2018 Bud has slowed down since the previous advisory and is now crawling northwestward at 325/03 kt. No changes were required to the previous forecast track due to the recent NHC model guidance remaining tightly packed and in excellent agreement on both track and forward speed. Bud should turn toward the north-northwest later this evening and continue that motion for another 24 h or so. After that, the cyclone is expected to turn northward at a slightly faster forward speed on Thursday and Friday, passing over the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula as a weakening tropical storm by Friday morning. By Saturday, Bud or its remnants are forecast to move inland over western mainland Mexico, and dissipate over northwestern Mexico by Sunday. Although it is unlikely that the low-level circulation will be able to make it across the high coastal mountains of western Mexico, a 120-h forecast point has been provided for continuity purposes, and would be more representative of the location of Bud's remnant mid-level circulation. The new NHC forecast track is basically on top of the previous advisory track, and remains close to a blend of the various consensus models. Bud's slow motion over already marginally warm SSTs and near zero upper-ocean heat content is likely producing significant cold upwelling beneath the cyclone, a negative factor that is forecast to worsen over the next 48 hours. The result should be continued rapid weakening right up until the time Bud approaches southern Baja California on Thursday. Expected land interaction thereafter will further weaken the cyclone, and Bud could become a remnant low or even dissipate before it reaches mainland Mexico in 96 hours. The official intensity forecast is close to a blend of the intensity consensus models IVCN, HCCA, and FSSE. Based on the forecast track and 34-kt wind radii, a Tropical Storm Watch could be required for portions of Baja California Sur on the next advisory package. Bud's remnant moisture plume is expected to spread northward and northeastward into northwestern Mexico and the U.S. Desert Southwest over the weekend, resulting in significant rains and possible flash flooding across those areas. For further information on the heavy rainfall threat, please see products issued by your local weather service office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 18.6N 108.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 19.1N 108.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 19.9N 109.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 14/0600Z 20.8N 109.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 14/1800Z 22.0N 110.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 15/1800Z 25.2N 110.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 16/1800Z 29.3N 110.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 17/1800Z 35.0N 110.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane Bud Forecast Discussion Number 12
2018-06-12 16:58:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Tue Jun 12 2018 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 121458 TCDEP3 Hurricane Bud Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 900 AM MDT Tue Jun 12 2018 Satellite imagery indicate that Bud peaked in intensity around 0600 UTC, and cloud tops surrounding the well-defined, 20-nmi-diameter eye have been steadily warming since then. The intensity estimate of 110 kt is based on a blend of TAFB T- and CI-numbers, and a UW-CIMSS ADT estimate of 110 kt. Bud has continued to make a trochoidal motion in the general direction of 320/05 kt during the past 6 hours. Overall, no significant changes were required to the previous advisory track due to the latest NHC model guidance remaining very tightly packed. Bud is forecast to move slowly in a north-northwestward direction around a large mid-level ridge extending westward across central Mexico for the next 36 hours or so, followed by a gradual turn toward the north by late Thursday. On the forecast track, Bud is expected to move across Baja California Sur as a tropical storm on Thursday. The official track forecast is essentially just an extension of the previous advisory track, and lies close to a blend of the various consensus models. Although Bud has an impressive upper-level outflow pattern and is forecast to remain in very low wind shear conditions for the next 48 hours, the cyclone will be moving over cooling SSTs of 26C or less and ocean heat content values near zero. This should result in significant cold upwelling beneath the cyclone, which may already be happening based on erosion of the northern eyewall noted in recent SSMI/S microwave satellite imagery. Due to the expected poor oceanic conditions and upwelling, rapid weakening is forecast to begin shortly and continue through the remainder of the forecast period. By 96 hours, Bud is expected to be inland or near the western coast of mainland Mexico, and likely have dissipated by 120 hours over northwestern Mexico. However, a 120h point has been priovided for continuity purposes. The official intensity forecast is close to a blend of the intensity consensus models IVCN, HCCA, and FSSE. Based on the forecast track and 34-kt wind radii, a Tropical Storm Watch could be required for portions of Baja California Sur on the next advisory package. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 18.4N 108.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 13/0000Z 18.9N 108.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 13/1200Z 19.6N 109.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 14/0000Z 20.5N 109.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 14/1200Z 21.6N 109.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 15/1200Z 24.4N 110.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 16/1200Z 28.5N 111.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 120H 17/1200Z 32.1N 111.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane Bud Forecast Discussion Number 11
2018-06-12 10:38:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue Jun 12 2018 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 120838 TCDEP3 Hurricane Bud Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 300 AM MDT Tue Jun 12 2018 Bud has been maintaining a well-defined eye for the past several hours but recent satellite images suggest some loss of definition. The current intensity is set to 115 kt in agreement with a Dvorak current intensity estimate from TAFB. Even though Bud is currently a powerful hurricane, it is going to pass over ocean waters of progressively decreasing heat content and lower SSTs. Therefore, weakening is likely. Gradual weakening should commence later today, but by Wednesday the rate of weakening should increase as the ocean becomes significantly less conducive. The official intensity forecast is close to the multi-model consensus guidance IVCN, however the corrected/smart consensus models HCCA and the Florida State University Superensemble show a more rapid decline in intensity than shown here. Bud is likely to degenerate into a remnant low by the time it reaches mainland Mexico. Bud's movement has continued to exhibit a trochoidal oscillation, which is typical of major hurricanes. Smoothing through these trochoidal wobbles gives an estimated motion that is the same as in the previous advisory, or 315/6 kt. The track forecast reasoning is essentially unchanged. Bud is moving between a large mid-level anticyclone centered near the United States/Mexico border and the circulation of Post-Tropical Cyclone Aletta. Over the next day or so, increased ridging to the north of Bud should result in a slowing of the forward motion of the tropical cyclone. Later, a trough off the southern California and northern Baja California Peninsula coasts should cause Bud to turn to the north with some increase in forward speed. The official track forecast is close to the previous one, and in good agreement with the latest multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 18.1N 108.2W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 18.5N 108.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 13/0600Z 19.2N 108.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 13/1800Z 19.9N 109.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 14/0600Z 20.9N 109.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 15/0600Z 23.4N 110.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 16/0600Z 26.7N 111.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 17/0600Z 31.0N 111.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Bud Forecast Discussion Number 10
2018-06-12 04:42:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Mon Jun 11 2018 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 120242 TCDEP3 Hurricane Bud Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 900 PM MDT Mon Jun 11 2018 Bud has been sending mixed signals this evening regarding its intensity. On one hand, the eye has been warming and become more distinct in infrared satellite imagery. On the other hand, the central dense overcast has been shrinking, and temperatures of the convective cloud tops have been warming as well. Subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB are T5.5/102 kt while the objective ADT peaked at 6.5/127 kt. The initial intensity is raised to 110 kt as a compromise of these values. Bud appears to be going through a trochoidal oscillation, but the longer-term motion estimate is northwestward, or 315/6 kt. The hurricane is moving between a large mid-level high centered near the U.S./Mexico border and Post-Tropical Cyclone Aletta, but with the ridge directly to its north, Bud's forward speed is expected to slow down to 4-5 kt for the next 48 hours. After that time, a developing mid- to upper-level trough off the California coast will cause Bud to turn northward and accelerate across the Baja California Peninsula. The track models are tightly clustered, with the only subtle outlier being the ECMWF, which is a little slower and to the west of the other models. The NHC forecast is closest to the TVCX multi-model consensus and not too different from the previous forecast. Since vertical shear is forecast to remain low for the next 3 days or so and there is plenty of atmospheric moisture, the biggest limiting factor on intensification appears to be low oceanic heat content. Bud has reached an area where waters of 26C or warmer only extend 20 meters or less below the ocean surface. Upwelling of colder water is likely due to the hurricane's expected slow motion, and the colder water will likely induce a rather quick weakening trend. The HCCA and Florida State Superensemble show the most dramatic drop-off in winds, while the SHIPS model maintains Bud's intensity for another 24 hours or so before showing much weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is between these two scenarios, with Bud expected to fall below hurricane intensity near the 48-hour mark (late Wednesday). Continued weakening is expected as Bud approaches and moves across the southern Baja California Peninsula, and the cyclone is likely to be a remnant low over the Mexican state of Sonora by day 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0300Z 17.6N 107.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 12/1200Z 18.1N 107.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 13/0000Z 18.8N 108.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 13/1200Z 19.4N 108.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 14/0000Z 20.2N 109.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 15/0000Z 22.4N 110.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 16/0000Z 25.5N 111.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 17/0000Z 30.0N 110.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND $$ Forecaster Berg
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Aletta Forecast Discussion Number 25
2018-06-11 22:33:12| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 200 PM PDT Mon Jun 11 2018
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