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Tropical Depression Fourteen Forecast Discussion Number 5

2017-09-16 04:52:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 15 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 160252 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Fourteen Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 15 2017 The overall organization of the tropical depression has changed little since this afternoon. The center remains exposed to the north and northwest of the deep convection, but there has been a slight increase in banding over the southern semicircle within the past hour or two. The initial intensity remains 30 kt, which is in agreement with Dvorak data T-numbers from both TAFB and SAB. The depression is forecast to remain within an area of moderate to strong northwesterly shear during the next 24 to 36 hours while it moves over warm water. Therefore, only slight strengthening is indicated over the weekend. After that time, increasing westerly shear is forecast to weaken the cyclone, and it is expected to become a remnant low by the end of the forecast period. The depression has turned westward since the previous advisory, and the initial motion estimate is 280/9 kt. There has been no change to the track forecast reasoning. The cyclone should move westward to west-northwestward to the south of a narrow ridge over the eastern Atlantic through Sunday. The global models indicate that the ridge will weaken early next week as a large deep-layer trough forms over the east-central Atlantic. This is expected to result in a slightly more poleward track later in the period. The updated NHC forecast is near the middle of the guidance through 48 hours, but leans toward the left side of the envelope later in the period since the typically reliable ECMWF and HFIP corrected consensus models are along the southern edge envelope at 72 h and beyond. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 12.8N 30.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 12.8N 31.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 12.9N 33.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 13.0N 34.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 18/0000Z 13.3N 35.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 19/0000Z 15.0N 39.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 20/0000Z 17.2N 43.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 21/0000Z 19.0N 47.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown

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Hurricane Jose Forecast Discussion Number 43

2017-09-16 04:51:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 160251 TCDAT2 Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 43 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017 Since the reconnaissance flight earlier this afternoon, convection within the inner-core of Jose has increased in coverage and organization. A banding eye appears to be forming, and a warm spot is apparent in IR imagery near the center of the cyclone. Dvorak classifications at 0000 UTC still supported an intensity of 65 kt, but given the increase in organization since then, the initial intensity has been increased to 70 kt. Additional strengthening is still expected for at least the next 24 to 36 h. After that time, an increase in southwesterly shear and gradually cooling SSTs are still expected to cap the intensification and eventually cause Jose to gradually weaken. The official intensity forecast remains a little above the model consensus for the first 48 h, and is close after that. Jose continues to move toward the northwest, and the initial motion estimate is 305/8 kt. The main source of uncertainty in the track forecast is at days 4 and 5, since the global models disagree on the speed at which Jose will move northward along the western edge of the subtropical ridge. The GFS continues to show a faster movement, which allows Jose to pass very close to the U.S. east coast before an approaching trough forces the cyclone to turn more toward the northeast. On the other hand, the ECMWF shows a slower track, so the trough steers the hurricane farther east. The NHC forecast has not been changed substantially and is still just a touch slower than the model consensus, out of respect to the ECMWF. When the 00Z ECMWF and UKMET models become available tonight, it could shed more light on the future speed of the hurricane. It is still important to note that the average NHC track errors at days 4 and 5 are about 175 and 225 miles, respectively, and this error could be in the speed of the hurricane (along track error). While the official track forecast keeps the center of Jose offshore for the next few days, all of the global models show the hurricane becoming rather large by late this weekend as it moves to the east of North Carolina. For that reason, a tropical storm watch may be needed for a portion of the North Carolina coast tomorrow. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and the southeast coast of the United States, and will spread northward, reaching the mid-Atlantic coast and the coast of southern New England during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions. 2. Although the center of Jose is forecast to pass well east of the North Carolina coast early next week, tropical-storm-force winds are expected to extend well west of the center and could approach the North Carolina Outer Banks on Monday. Farther north along the U.S. east coast, the chance of some direct impacts from Jose is increasing, but it is too soon to determine their exact magnitude and location. Interests along the U.S. east coast from North Carolina to New England should monitor the progress of Jose through the weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 27.4N 71.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 28.1N 71.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 29.2N 72.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 30.6N 72.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 18/0000Z 32.0N 72.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 19/0000Z 34.6N 71.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 20/0000Z 37.5N 71.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 21/0000Z 41.0N 68.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 18

2017-09-16 04:42:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT Fri Sep 15 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 160242 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017 800 PM PDT Fri Sep 15 2017 For the past several days, convection has developed repeatedly near the center of the depression, only to dissipate a few hours later. This trend has continued today, and the depression is currently at a convective minimum. The intensity has been held at 30 kt, based on earlier ASCAT data. Despite the lack of intensification so far, most of the guidance continues to show that the depression will become a tropical storm sometime in the next couple of days. Only the LGEM keeps the system weak throughout the forecast, though so far that has been a good forecast. For now, my forecast continues to follow the intensity consensus and shows very gradual weakening over the next couple of days. Given the low shear and moderate SSTs, it would still be a little surprising if the depression never strengthens. The depression continues to slow down, and is now drifting westward at about 2 kt. Very little change has been made to the track forecast, and the global models continue to show little motion for the next day or so while the cyclone remains trapped in weak steering flow. After about 24 h, a slow turn toward the north is expected in response to a mid-level trough located well to the north. A turn back toward the west should occur once the subtropical ridge becomes re-established around day 4. The NHC forecast remains near the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 16.0N 125.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 15.9N 125.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 15.9N 126.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 16.3N 126.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 18/0000Z 16.8N 126.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 19/0000Z 18.0N 126.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 20/0000Z 18.5N 127.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 21/0000Z 18.0N 130.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 17

2017-09-15 22:39:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Sep 15 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 152039 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017 200 PM PDT Fri Sep 15 2017 A cluster of deep convection, albeit small, has become more concentrated near the center of circulation, indicating that the shear has diminished. However, a recent ASCAT pass indicated that the maximum winds remain 30 kt. The lower shear and warm sea surface temperatures should allow the depression to gradually strengthen over the next couple of days, although since dry air has been ingested into the circulation, that intensification will probably be slow. The new NHC forecast shows a slightly lower peak intensity compared to the previous forecast, following the latest model trends. Weakening is likely by days 4 and 5, and the cyclone is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low at the end of the forecast period due to stronger shear and marginal sea surface temperatures. The depression has slowed down and is moving westward, or 270/3 kt. The subtropical ridge is expected to push the depression west- southwestward during the next 12 to 24 hours, but after that time, a break in the ridge will allow the cyclone to turn northward through day 3. A re-establishment of the ridge should cause the cyclone to turn back toward the west on days 4 and 5. There were no significant changes required on this forecast package, and the NHC forecast generally lies close to the consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 16.0N 125.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 15.8N 125.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 15.8N 126.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 17/0600Z 16.0N 126.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 17/1800Z 16.5N 126.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 18/1800Z 17.7N 126.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 19/1800Z 18.4N 126.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 20/1800Z 18.1N 129.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg

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Hurricane Jose Forecast Discussion Number 42

2017-09-15 22:35:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 152035 TCDAT2 Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 42 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 500 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017 Air Force reconnaissance data indicate that Jose has become a hurricane again, with a blend of the flight-level data and SFMR values giving an initial intensity of 65 kt. Further strengthening is possible over the next day or two while the hurricane remains over warm waters with light-to-moderate shear. By Sunday, southwesterly shear is forecast to increase, along with a gradual cooling of the SSTs. These conditions should promote some weakening of Jose, although all of the guidance are showing a fairly large hurricane for the next several days. The official forecast is close to the previous one for the first couple of days, then is blended downward to the latest model consensus. Jose continues moving northwestward, now at about 9 kt. The hurricane should turn north-northwestward tomorrow and northward by Sunday while it is steered around a western Atlantic ridge. Jose is then forecast to turn north-northeastward by Wednesday as it moves along the northwestern side of that ridge. The model guidance is in relatively good agreement on the forecast track, but the ECMWF is slower than the rest of the guidance. With the UKMET and its ensemble speeding up from 6 hours ago, the official forecast is nudged toward the model consensus at long range, but is still on the slow side, resulting in little overall change to the previous forecast. It is still important to note that the average NHC track errors at days 4 and 5 are about 175 and 225 miles, respectively. While most of the guidance keep the center of Jose offshore for the next few days, all of the global models show the hurricane becoming rather large by late this weekend as it moves to the east of North Carolina. For that reason, a tropical storm watch may be needed for a portion of the North Carolina coast tomorrow. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and the southeast coast of the United States, and will spread northward, reaching the mid-Atlantic coast and the coast of southern New England during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions. 2. Although the center of Jose is forecast to pass well east of the North Carolina coast early next week, tropical-storm-force winds are expected to extend well west of the center and could approach the North Carolina Outer Banks on Monday. Farther north along the U.S. east coast, the chance of some direct impacts from Jose is increasing, but it is too soon to determine their exact magnitude and location. Interests along the U.S. east coast from North Carolina to New England should monitor the progress of Jose through the weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 27.1N 70.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 27.8N 71.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 28.8N 72.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 17/0600Z 29.9N 72.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 17/1800Z 31.4N 72.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 18/1800Z 33.9N 72.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 19/1800Z 36.7N 71.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 20/1800Z 40.0N 69.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake

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