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Hurricane Jose Forecast Discussion Number 44
2017-09-16 10:55:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 160855 TCDAT2 Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 44 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 500 AM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017 NOAA buoy 41047 has been very helpful in determining the position and central pressure of Jose this morning. The center of Jose passed just north of the buoy around 0500 UTC, and a surface pressure of 986 mb with 20-30 kt of winds was measured. Since the buoy did not sample the stronger northeast quadrant of the storm, the initial intensity has been held at 70 kt. Another reconnaissance flight later today will provide a better estimate of the max winds. There is some indication of northeasterly shear inhibiting the outflow of Jose, which is restricted in the northwest quadrant. Since it appears to be negatively affecting the cyclone, the shear may inhibit any more substantial intensification. The intensity guidance is a little lower than before, so the new NHC forecast has been lowered slightly, and is now close to the intensity consensus throughout the forecast. Jose has moved just a little to the southwest of the expected track, and the initial motion remains 305/8 kt. However, Jose is still expected to begin turning toward the north later today, so no significant changes were needed for the early part of the forecast. More importantly, the GFS and ECMWF have met in the middle of their previous solutions, and have come into much better agreement on the forward speed of the hurricane beyond day 2. The new track forecast is very close to a 50/50 blend of the GFS and ECMWF. Although confidence in the track forecast is a little higher due to the model agreement, it is still important to note that the average NHC track errors at days 4 and 5 are about 175 and 225 miles, respectively. While the official track forecast keeps the center of Jose offshore for the next few days, all of the global models show the hurricane becoming rather large by late this weekend as it moves to the east of North Carolina. For that reason, a tropical storm watch may be needed for a portion of the North Carolina coast later today. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and the southeast coast of the United States, and will spread northward, reaching the mid-Atlantic coast and the coast of southern New England during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions. 2. Although the center of Jose is forecast to pass well east of the North Carolina coast early next week, tropical-storm-force winds are expected to extend well west of the center and could approach the North Carolina Outer Banks on Monday. Farther north along the U.S. east coast, the chance of some direct impacts from Jose is increasing, but it is too soon to determine their exact magnitude and location. Interests along the U.S. east coast from North Carolina to New England should monitor the progress of Jose through the weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 27.9N 71.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 28.6N 72.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 29.7N 72.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 17/1800Z 31.2N 72.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 18/0600Z 32.9N 72.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 19/0600Z 35.8N 71.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 20/0600Z 39.5N 70.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 21/0600Z 41.0N 66.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 19
2017-09-16 10:53:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Sep 16 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 160853 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017 200 AM PDT Sat Sep 16 2017 An ASCAT pass just before 0600 UTC indicated that the depression has weakened a little bit. Winds of only around 25 kt were present, and since the depression lacks a true inner core, I don't believe that undersampling is a big concern at this time. The initial intensity has therefore been lowered to 25 kt. It is beginning to seem unlikely that the depression will become a tropical storm at any time. The mid-level humidity and SSTs seem sufficient to only support continued pulsating convection and none of the guidance really shows significant strengthening. Since the environment is not expected to change for the next 3 days, the new NHC intensity forecast keeps the cyclone as a tropical depression. Sometime between days 4 and 5, most of the dynamical models show the cyclone becoming a remnant low, though it could happen a little sooner than that. The depression has continued to drift slowly westward. There is no change to the forecast reasoning, and all of the models continue to show very little movement throughout the forecast period. The NHC track forecast is close to a blend of the ECMWF and GFS, and doesn't show the depression moving faster than 3 kt until after it becomes a remnant low around day 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 15.8N 126.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 15.7N 126.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 16.1N 126.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 17/1800Z 16.6N 126.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 18/0600Z 17.0N 126.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 19/0600Z 17.7N 126.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 20/0600Z 18.0N 128.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 120H 21/0600Z 17.0N 130.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Hurricane Norma Forecast Discussion Number 8
2017-09-16 10:49:51| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 300 AM MDT Sat Sep 16 2017
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Tropical Depression Fourteen Forecast Discussion Number 6
2017-09-16 10:47:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Sep 16 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 160847 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Fourteen Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 500 AM AST Sat Sep 16 2017 The center of the depression continues to be located on the north side of a curved band of deep convection, and the outflow is only expanding to the south and west. Dvorak T-numbers have not changed and support an initial intensity of 30 kt. The depression has the opportunity to become a tropical storm during the next 24 to 36 hours before a pronounced upper-level trough digs southward over the eastern Atlantic and brings strong northerly shear over the cyclone. The NHC forecast shows some strengthening through Sunday, but weakening should begin thereafter. The system should degenerate into a remnant low in about 4 days. The depression is moving westward at 6 kt, steered by a narrow mid-level ridge to the north. The same trough that is bringing the shear will likely further weaken the ridge to the north, and this should result in a turn of the cyclone toward the west-northwest. The NHC track is in the middle of the guidance envelope through 48 hours, but after that time the forecast is uncertain since the guidance spreads out considerably. During that last period, the NHC forecast follows the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA and the trend of the ECMWF. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 12.6N 32.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 12.6N 33.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 12.6N 34.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 17/1800Z 12.7N 35.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 18/0600Z 13.3N 37.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 19/0600Z 15.2N 41.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 20/0600Z 17.0N 44.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 21/0600Z 18.0N 48.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Avila
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Hurricane Norma Forecast Discussion Number 7
2017-09-16 04:57:25| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 900 PM MDT Fri Sep 15 2017
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