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Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 2

2015-10-15 10:38:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT THU OCT 15 2015 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 150837 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 200 AM PDT THU OCT 15 2015 The cloud pattern of the depression has not changed much during the past several hours. A large area of convection remains near the center, with some banding features noted in the northwestern quadrant. The initial wind speed estimate remains 30 kt in agreement with the TAFB/SAB Dvorak values and ASCAT data. The large-scale environment seems favorable for strengthening over the next several days with low wind shear, very warm water and moist mid-level conditions likely in the cyclone's path. Thus strengthening is predicted, similar to the previous forecast, and the official forecast is near the intensity consensus. Rapid intensification seems like a reasonable possibility in the next few days if the cyclone develops an inner core, and a few models are showing the cyclone as a major hurricane in the 3-5 day time frame. Although a hurricane that strong would be quite rare so far west in the eastern Pacific in late October, this season's storms have peaked quite a bit farther west than typical, so this scenario should be mentioned. A pair of ASCAT passes indicates that the center of the depression was a bit farther north than geostationary satellite suggested, although the initial motion remains west, now at about 14 kt. This general motion with a decrease in forward speed is still expected for the system during the next couple of days while the subtropical ridge remains in place but weakens. After that time, the cyclone should gradually turn toward the northwest due to a weakness in the ridge caused by a mid- to upper-level trough. Model guidance remains in good agreement, and the official forecast is basically an update of the previous one, with a slight northward adjustment to account for the initial position change. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 10.2N 119.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 10.0N 121.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 9.9N 123.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 9.9N 125.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 17/0600Z 9.9N 127.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 18/0600Z 10.6N 130.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 19/0600Z 12.1N 133.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 20/0600Z 14.5N 135.5W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake

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Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 1

2015-10-15 04:34:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT WED OCT 14 2015 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 150234 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 800 PM PDT WED OCT 14 2015 Satellite images indicate that the low pressure system located about 1000 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has become better organized. The cloud pattern consists of a large curved band on its western side and a central dense overcast feature. In addition, a partial ASCAT pass from earlier today suggested that the center of circulation has become better defined. On this basis, this system is classified as a tropical depression, the nineteenth one of the 2015 eastern North Pacific season. The initial wind speed is set at 30 kt, following a Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB and the earlier ASCAT data. The depression is moving just south of due west at about 16 kt steered by a subtropical ridge to its north. A general westward motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected during the next few days while the ridge remains in place but weakens. After that time, a turn to the northwest is predicted as the cyclone moves toward a weakness in the ridge caused by a mid- to upper-level trough. The model guidance is in fair agreement, and the official track forecast lies near the consensus aids. Low wind shear, warm water, and a fairly moist environment should allow the system to strengthen during the next several days. The SHIPS and LGEM models show significant strengthening, bringing the system to hurricane strength within 48 hours with continued intensification thereafter. The official forecast is less aggressive than those models, but still does call for the depression to strengthen steadily for the next few days. This forecast is between the dynamical and statistical guidance, and a little lower than the intensity model consensus. It is interesting to note that the GFS and ECMWF models also show the system deepening significantly toward the end of the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 9.9N 117.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 9.7N 120.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 9.5N 122.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 9.5N 124.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 17/0000Z 9.6N 126.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 18/0000Z 10.0N 130.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 19/0000Z 11.4N 132.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 20/0000Z 13.5N 135.0W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Barneys Hosts U.S. Government Officials for Discussion on Women's History

2015-10-14 06:56:52| Apparel - Topix.net

POWER ON: Barneys New York welcomed three government officials at its Madison Avenue flagship Monday, who participated in a panel discussion in celebration of the International Day of the Girl. The retailer, in collaboration with women's empowerment council Girls' Lounge, has rolled out a national campaign called # GirlPossible in support of the honorary holiday - forging a social media campaign, window displays at 15 stores and specially-created online content.

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Tropical Storm NORA Forecast Discussion Number 7

2015-10-11 04:41:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT SAT OCT 10 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 110240 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182015 800 PM PDT SAT OCT 10 2015 Nora's satellite presentation continues to feature an irregular CDO with little in the way of convective banding. The initial intensity remains 45 kt based on a blend of the latest TAFB and SAB Dvorak classifications. ASCAT data received around the time of the last advisory suggested that Nora is a very small tropical cyclone, with tropical storm force winds only extending outward up to 30 n mi in the northern semicircle. An AMSR2 microwave image from the JAXA GCOM-W2 satellite around 22Z clearly showed the low-level center on the southeastern edge of the deep convection, but convection has formed closer to the center since that time. The near-storm environment should be favorable for some strengthening in the next 48 hours or so, with warm waters and low vertical shear, but there is some mid-tropospheric dry air in the environment that could limit strengthening. After that time, the vertical shear begins to increase as the cyclone recurves, and steady weakening is forecast to begin after 72 hours. The NHC forecast generally follows the trend of the previous one, but no longer explicitly shows Nora reaching hurricane strength. However, this is certainly still possible. The NHC prediction is close to the FSU Superensemble through 36 hours and near the intensity consensus after that time. The ASCAT data and microwave fixes indicated that the center of Nora was located a little southwest of the position in the previous advisory, but the initial motion remains westward at 12 kt. The synoptic reasoning for the track forecast has not changed, as Nora will be steered westward at a decreasing forward speed for the next 36 to 48 hours by a weakening ridge to the north. After that time, Nora should begin to recurve into a break in the ridge and then turn northeastward by the end of the period under the influence of a longwave trough over the north-central Pacific. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted to the south and west of the previous one through 72 hours to account for the initial position and motion, and is near the previous official forecast track after that time. The NHC forecast lies between the latest ECMWF forecast and the TVCE multi-model consensus. With Nora moving into the central North Pacific basin, this will be the last advisory from NHC. Future information on Nora can be found in advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center beginning at 1100 PM HST (0900Z). FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 11.7N 139.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 11/1200Z 11.8N 141.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 12/0000Z 11.9N 143.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 12/1200Z 12.0N 144.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 13/0000Z 12.2N 145.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 14/0000Z 14.0N 146.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 15/0000Z 16.0N 145.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 16/0000Z 17.5N 144.5W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Brennan

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Tropical Storm NORA Forecast Discussion Number 6

2015-10-10 22:53:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT SAT OCT 10 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 102053 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182015 200 PM PDT SAT OCT 10 2015 Nora is small tropical cyclone with an irregular central dense overcast and some banding features especially northwest of the center. Microwave data show that the inner core has improved in organization, with a mostly closed ring noted in the 37 GHz channel. With the increasing inner core structure, the initial wind speed is raised to 45 kt, at the higher end of the estimates near the Dvorak value from TAFB. The initial 34-kt wind radii were adjusted inward based on an ASCAT-A pass from 1826Z. Over the next couple of days, the environment near the storm is expected to generally be favorable for strengthening, with very warm waters and low shear anticipated. However, some dry air aloft is expected to temper the intensification, and only a gradual increase in wind speed is expected at this time. Still, with the inner core getting better organized, a faster rate of intensification is possible, with the SHIPS-RI index showing a 25 percent chance of a 30-kt change over the next 24 hours. The intensity forecast will remain close to the previous one in the first 48 hours, above most of the guidance and closest to the GFDL and Florida State Superensemble models. Global models are increasing the wind shear near Nora quite a bit in a few days and keeping it high for the remainder of the period. This will likely cause significant weakening, and the NHC prediction is decreased a little bit at long range, and is below the model consensus. Nora continues moving westward at roughly 12 kt. There has been no change to the synoptic pattern with a ridge expected to gradually weaken to the north of the tropical cyclone over the next couple of days. This pattern should result in Nora decelerating during that time, while generally moving a little north of west. Thereafter, the storm is expected to encounter a weakness in the ridge while a mid-latitude trough digs north of Hawaii. These features should turn Nora to the north and northeast, well east of the Hawaiian Islands. Model guidance has shifted a bit to the south and west on this model cycle, in better agreement overall on a later northward turn. The NHC forecast is shifted westward through 96 hours to come into better agreement with the consensus-based guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 11.8N 138.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 11/0600Z 11.9N 140.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 11/1800Z 12.0N 141.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 12/0600Z 12.1N 143.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 12/1800Z 12.3N 144.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 13/1800Z 13.8N 146.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 14/1800Z 16.0N 145.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 15/1800Z 18.0N 144.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake/Brennan

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