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Tropical Storm JAVIER Forecast Advisory Number 5

2016-08-08 10:50:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 08 2016 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 080850 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM JAVIER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112016 0900 UTC MON AUG 08 2016 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA EASTWARD TO LOS BARRILES. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ALSO ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LOS BARRILES TO TODO SANTOS A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR * TODO SANTOS TO CABO SAN LAZARO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LOS BARRILES TO SAN EVARISTO * TODO SANTOS TO CABO SAN LAZARO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAN EVARISTO TO LORETO * CABO SAN LAZARO TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 108.3W AT 08/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 90SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 108.3W AT 08/0900Z AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 108.0W FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 22.2N 109.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 23.1N 110.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 24.2N 111.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 25.4N 112.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 27.2N 113.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.5N 108.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Tropical Storm JAVIER Graphics

2016-08-08 07:55:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 08 Aug 2016 05:55:51 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 08 Aug 2016 03:05:07 GMT

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Summary for Tropical Storm JAVIER (EP1/EP112016)

2016-08-08 07:53:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...JAVIER EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN... As of 12:00 AM MDT Mon Aug 8 the center of JAVIER was located near 21.0, -108.0 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

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Tropical Storm JAVIER Public Advisory Number 4A

2016-08-08 07:53:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1200 AM MDT MON AUG 08 2016 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 080553 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM JAVIER INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112016 1200 AM MDT MON AUG 08 2016 ...JAVIER EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 1200 AM MDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.0N 108.0W ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Cabo San Lucas to Todo Santos A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning are in effect for... * Todo Santos to Cabo San Lazaro * Cabo San Lucas to Los Barriles A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Los Barriles to San Evaristo A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * San Evaristo to Loreto A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1200 AM MDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Javier was located near latitude 21.0 North, longitude 108.0 West. Javier is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Javier should approach the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula Monday afternoon. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next day or so, and Javier is forecast to become a hurricane by late Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Javier is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over western or coastal parts of the Mexican states of Colima, Jalisco, Michoacan, Nayarit and the southern part of Baja California Sur with possible isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches through Tuesday morning. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected over the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula within the warning area by Monday evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected over the remainder of the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula within the warning area by late Monday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area over the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula on Tuesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

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