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Tropical Storm JAVIER Graphics
2016-08-09 01:57:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 08 Aug 2016 23:57:29 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 08 Aug 2016 21:06:12 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm JAVIER (EP1/EP112016)
2016-08-09 01:52:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER REPORTS INDICATE JAVIER MOVING SLOWER TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA... As of 6:00 PM MDT Mon Aug 8 the center of JAVIER was located near 22.3, -109.6 with movement NW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm JAVIER Public Advisory Number 7A
2016-08-09 01:52:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 600 PM MDT MON AUG 08 2016 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 082352 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM JAVIER INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112016 600 PM MDT MON AUG 08 2016 ...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER REPORTS INDICATE JAVIER MOVING SLOWER TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA... SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.3N 109.6W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cabo San Lazaro to Los Barriles A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * San Evaristo to Cabo San Lazaro A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * San Evaristo to Loreto * Cabo San Lazaro to Puerto San Andresito For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Javier was located near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 109.6 West. Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Javier has slowed down and is now moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue through Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Javier will pass near or over the southern tip of the Baja California tonight, and move near the west coast of Baja California Sur on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible while the center passes near the southern Baja California peninsula tonight and early Tuesday. A weakening trend is forecast to begin by Tuesday afternoon. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. Reports from the NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the minimum central pressure is estimated to be 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Javier is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches over coastal parts of the Mexican states of Sinaloa and southern Sonora into Baja California Sur with possible isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches through Wednesday morning. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area over the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula later tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area over the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula on Tuesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart/Roberts
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Tropical Storm JAVIER Graphics
2016-08-08 23:06:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 08 Aug 2016 20:53:16 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 08 Aug 2016 21:06:12 GMT
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javier
Tropical Storm JAVIER Forecast Discussion Number 7
2016-08-08 22:50:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT MON AUG 08 2016 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 082050 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112016 300 PM MDT MON AUG 08 2016 An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft recently investigated Javier on a long mission from base. They measured peak SFMR-observed surface winds of 54 kt and maximum 850 mb flight-level winds of 52 kt. On the basis of these data, the intensity is set at 55 kt. Some slight additional strengthening is possible tonight while the center pass near or over the extreme southern Baja California peninsula. Later the period, cooler SSTs, interaction with land, and an increasingly stable air mass should cause gradual weakening. The official intensity forecast is a little above the latest model consensus. Center fixes from the aircraft give an initial motion estimate of 315/8. Javier is expected to continue to move around the western periphery of a mid-level anticyclone centered near Texas. The official track forecast lies close to the dynamical model consensus, TVCN. Observations from the aircraft indicate that Javier is a small tropical cyclone. Although some slight expansion of the wind field may occur over the next day or so, the radius of tropical-storm-force winds is not expected to be much more than 60 n mi. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 22.5N 109.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 23.3N 110.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 24.3N 111.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 25.2N 112.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 10/1800Z 26.2N 113.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 11/1800Z 27.5N 114.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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