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Summary for Tropical Storm JAVIER (EP1/EP112016)
2016-08-08 19:57:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE FINDS THAT JAVIER HAS NOT STRENGTHENED... As of 12:00 PM MDT Mon Aug 8 the center of JAVIER was located near 22.3, -109.3 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm JAVIER Public Advisory Number 6A
2016-08-08 19:57:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1200 PM MDT MON AUG 08 2016 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 081757 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM JAVIER INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112016 1200 PM MDT MON AUG 08 2016 ...HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE FINDS THAT JAVIER HAS NOT STRENGTHENED... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.3N 109.3W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Hurricane Warning from Los Barriles to Todos Santos, and has discontinued the Hurricane Watch from Todos Santos to Cabo San Lazaro. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * San Evaristo to Cabo San Lazaro A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * San Evaristo to Loreto * Cabo San Lazaro to Puerto San Andresito A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Javier was located near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 109.3 West. Javier is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Javier is forecast to pass near or over the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula later today, and move near the west coast of Baja California Sur tonight and Tuesday. Reports from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible while Javier passes near the extreme Baja California peninsula. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane Hunter data is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Javier is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches over coastal parts of the Mexican states of Sinaloa and southern Sonora into Baja California Sur with possible isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches through Wednesday morning. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area over the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula later today and tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area over the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula on Tuesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm JAVIER Forecast Discussion Number 6
2016-08-08 16:36:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT MON AUG 08 2016 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 081436 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112016 900 AM MDT MON AUG 08 2016 Javier has not become better organized since yesterday evening, with a significant decrease in the associated deep convection aside from a small burst near or north of the estimated center. Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB remain at T3.0 corresponding to 45 kt, and this will be the advisory intensity. Since the vertical shear is forecast to remain very low for the next couple of days, some strengthening is still forecast while Javier moves near the Baja California peninsula. The official intensity forecast for the next 24 to 36 hours is above the intensity guidance, but close to the latest SHIPS prediction. Within the next couple of days, cooling SSTs, land interaction, and an increasingly stable air mass are likely to induce weakening. Although the center is difficult to locate, it is estimated that the northwestward motion, 310/9 kt, continues. Javier is forecast to continue moving around the western periphery of a mid-level anticyclone centered over Texas. The official forecast is slightly to the left of the previous one but on the eastern side of the track guidance suite. Although the NHC forecast does not show Javier becoming a hurricane, it is prudent to keep the hurricane warning in place for the southern Baja California peninsula, at least until an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigates the system this afternoon. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 22.0N 109.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 22.5N 110.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 23.4N 111.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 10/0000Z 24.4N 111.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 10/1200Z 25.7N 112.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 11/1200Z 27.5N 114.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm JAVIER Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2016-08-08 16:36:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 08 2016 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 081436 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM JAVIER WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112016 1500 UTC MON AUG 08 2016 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JAVIER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 16(22) 19(41) X(41) X(41) P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) X(10) P ABREOJOS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 87 7(94) 1(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 34 17(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 3 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAN JOSE CABO 34 75 8(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) SAN JOSE CABO 50 14 11(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) SAN JOSE CABO 64 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) LA PAZ 34 4 46(50) 9(59) 1(60) 1(61) X(61) X(61) LA PAZ 50 X 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) LA PAZ 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) LORETO 34 1 3( 4) 11(15) 9(24) 4(28) X(28) X(28) LORETO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) P PENASCO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 9(12) X(12) X(12) GUAYMAS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 5(10) X(10) X(10) HUATABAMPO 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) LOS MOCHIS 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CULIACAN 34 2 6( 8) 3(11) X(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) MAZATLAN 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Summary for Tropical Storm JAVIER (EP1/EP112016)
2016-08-08 16:35:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HEAVY RAINS BEGINNING TO SPREAD OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA... As of 9:00 AM MDT Mon Aug 8 the center of JAVIER was located near 22.0, -109.2 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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