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Tropical Storm JAVIER Forecast Discussion Number 4

2016-08-08 05:00:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 PM MDT SUN AUG 07 2016 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 080300 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112016 900 PM MDT SUN AUG 07 2016 Although cloud tops have warmed some since the previous advisory, the overall convective cloud pattern of the cyclone has improved and passive microwave imagery indicate that the internal structure has also improved. The intensity has been increased to 45 kt based on consensus T3.0/45 kt satellite estimates from TAFB and SAB, and a T3.2/49 kt objective estimate from UW-CIMSS ADT. Microwave fixes indicate that the initial motion estimate is now 310/11 kt. Javier is forecast to move along the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer ridge centered near Texas, with the cyclone passing very near the west coast of the Baja California peninsula in 24-72 hours. The NHC model guidance is in good agreement on this track scenario, and the official forecast track closely follows the consensus model TVCN. A 0121Z SSMI/S image indicated that Javier appears to be developing a small mid-level eye feature. Given the compact inner-core structure of the cyclone, along with low shear of 5-8 kt and SSTs of at least 29C along the forecast track, at least steady strengthening seems reasonable for the next 36 hours or so. The official intensity forecast is slightly above the available guidance and closely follows the trend of the Decay-SHIPS model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 20.6N 107.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 21.4N 108.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 22.2N 109.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 23.1N 110.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 24.5N 111.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 72H 11/0000Z 26.5N 113.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 12/0000Z 28.9N 114.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Tropical Storm JAVIER Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4

2016-08-08 04:50:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 08 2016 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 080250 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM JAVIER WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112016 0300 UTC MON AUG 08 2016 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JAVIER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 13(20) 4(24) X(24) P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 23 53(76) 15(91) 1(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X 31(31) 22(53) 1(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X 7( 7) 12(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) SAN JOSE CABO 34 22 49(71) 13(84) 1(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X 21(21) 17(38) 1(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X 4( 4) 7(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) LA PAZ 34 5 25(30) 29(59) 9(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) LA PAZ 50 X 2( 2) 9(11) 5(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) LA PAZ 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LORETO 34 X 6( 6) 5(11) 11(22) 10(32) 1(33) X(33) LORETO 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) X(10) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) X(10) HUATABAMPO 34 X 4( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) 2(12) 1(13) X(13) LOS MOCHIS 34 2 7( 9) 5(14) 3(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) CULIACAN 34 4 13(17) 9(26) 3(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) MAZATLAN 34 11 7(18) 2(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) SAN BLAS 34 7 4(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) P VALLARTA 34 6 4(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MANZANILLO 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 3 6( 9) 1(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) ISLAS MARIAS 34 49 1(50) 1(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Tropical Storm JAVIER Public Advisory Number 4

2016-08-08 04:50:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 PM MDT SUN AUG 07 2016 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 080250 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM JAVIER ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112016 900 PM MDT SUN AUG 07 2016 ...JAVIER GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED... ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.6N 107.7W ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for the southern portion of Baja California peninsula from Cabo San Lucas to Todo Santos, Mexico. Elsewhere on the southern portion of Baja California peninsula, a Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from north of Todo Santos to Cabo San Lazaro, and from east of Cabo San Lucas to Los Barriles. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from north of Los Barriles to San Evaristo. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from north of San Evaristo to Loreto. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Cabo San Lucas to Todo Santos A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning are in effect for... * Todo Santos to Cabo San Lazaro * Cabo San Lucas to Los Barriles A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Los Barriles to San Evaristo A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * San Evaristo to Loreto A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours for the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Javier was located near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 107.7 West. Javier is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected to continue through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Javier should approach the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula by late Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next day or so, and Javier is forecast to become a hurricane by late Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Javier is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over western or coastal parts of the Mexican states of Colima, Jalisco, Michoacan, Nayarit and the southern part of Baja California Sur with possible isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches through Tuesday morning. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected over the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula within the warning area by Monday night and early Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected over the remainder of the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula within the warning area by Monday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area over the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula on Tuesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM MDT. Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Tropical Storm JAVIER Forecast Advisory Number 4

2016-08-08 04:46:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 08 2016 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 080246 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM JAVIER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112016 0300 UTC MON AUG 08 2016 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM CABO SAN LUCAS TO TODO SANTOS...MEXICO. ELSEWHERE ON THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF TODO SANTOS TO CABO SAN LAZARO...AND FROM EAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS TO LOS BARRILES. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF LOS BARRILES TO SAN EVARISTO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO TO LORETO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CABO SAN LUCAS TO TODO SANTOS A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR... * TODO SANTOS TO CABO SAN LAZARO * CABO SAN LUCAS TO LOS BARRILES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LOS BARRILES TO SAN EVARISTO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAN EVARISTO TO LORETO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 107.7W AT 08/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 30SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 107.7W AT 08/0300Z AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 107.3W FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 21.4N 108.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 22.2N 109.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 23.1N 110.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 24.5N 111.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 26.5N 113.2W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 28.9N 114.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 107.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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