je.st
news
Tag: javier
Tropical Storm JAVIER Graphics
2016-08-08 10:55:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 08 Aug 2016 08:55:16 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 08 Aug 2016 08:51:40 GMT
Tags: graphics
storm
tropical
javier
Tropical Storm JAVIER Forecast Discussion Number 5
2016-08-08 10:52:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT MON AUG 08 2016 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 080852 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112016 300 AM MDT MON AUG 08 2016 The tropical cyclone has changed little in organization since the previous advisory. The convective banding structure that was noted during the evening has become less apparent, but a new burst of convection has recently developed near the estimated center. A couple of ASCAT overpasses between 0400 and 0500 UTC indicated that the center is located slightly northeast of the previous estimates, and it may be near the northeastern portion of the new convective mass, due to some northeasterly shear. Javier's initial wind speed remains 45 kt for this advisory, which is based on Dvorak classifications of T3.0 and the ASCAT data which showed winds to around 40 kt. Javier will be traversing very warm water and the shear is expected to decrease today, which should allow for strengthening during the next 12 to 24 hours. The intensity guidance is slightly lower than before, so the NHC forecast shows a little less strengthening than earlier. Although it is not explicitly indicated in the NHC forecast, Javier could become a hurricane when it is near the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula. In a day or so, decreasing SSTs, land interaction, and a more stable airmass are expected to cause weakening. The tropical storm is moving northwestward at about 11 kt. The track forecast philosophy remains the same from the previous advisory. Javier should continue moving northwestward with some reduction in forward speed while it is steered around the southwestern portion of a deep-layer ridge over Texas. The track guidance is in generally good agreement, and the new NHC forecast is an update of the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 21.5N 108.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 22.2N 109.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 23.1N 110.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 24.2N 111.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 10/0600Z 25.4N 112.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 11/0600Z 27.2N 113.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm JAVIER Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2016-08-08 10:51:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 08 2016 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 080851 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM JAVIER WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112016 0900 UTC MON AUG 08 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JAVIER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 9(13) 20(33) X(33) X(33) P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) P ABREOJOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 41 52(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 4 50(54) 2(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X 11(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) SAN JOSE CABO 34 37 50(87) 1(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) SAN JOSE CABO 50 3 39(42) 2(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) LA PAZ 34 2 44(46) 22(68) 1(69) 1(70) X(70) X(70) LA PAZ 50 X 6( 6) 11(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) LA PAZ 64 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LORETO 34 1 3( 4) 9(13) 14(27) 7(34) X(34) X(34) LORETO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) P PENASCO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 9(11) X(11) X(11) GUAYMAS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 6(11) X(11) X(11) HUATABAMPO 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) LOS MOCHIS 34 1 3( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) CULIACAN 34 2 9(11) 5(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) MAZATLAN 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Summary for Tropical Storm JAVIER (EP1/EP112016)
2016-08-08 10:51:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...JAVIER EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT APPROACHES THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... As of 3:00 AM MDT Mon Aug 8 the center of JAVIER was located near 21.5, -108.3 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
Tags: summary
storm
tropical
javier
Tropical Storm JAVIER Public Advisory Number 5
2016-08-08 10:51:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT MON AUG 08 2016 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 080851 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM JAVIER ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112016 300 AM MDT MON AUG 08 2016 ...JAVIER EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT APPROACHES THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.5N 108.3W ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has extended the Hurricane Warning for the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula eastward to Los Barriles. The government of Mexico has also issued a Tropical Storm Watch along the west coast of the Baja California peninsula from north of Cabo San Lazaro to Puerto San Andresito SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Los Barriles to Todo Santos A Hurricane Watch is in effect for * Todo Santos to Cabo San Lazaro A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Los Barriles to San Evaristo * Todo Santos to Cabo San Lazaro A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * San Evaristo to Loreto * Cabo San Lazaro to Puerto San Andresito A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Javier was located near latitude 21.5 North, longitude 108.3 West. Javier is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Javier is forecast to pass near or over the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula late this afternoon or evening, and move near the west coast of Baja California Sur tonight and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next day or so, and Javier could become a hurricane as it passes near the southern portion of Baja California. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Javier is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches over coastal parts of the Mexican states of Sinaloa and southern Sonora into Baja California Sur with possible isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches through Wednesday morning. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected over the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula within the warning area by Monday evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected over the remainder of the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula within the warning area by late Monday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area over the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula on Tuesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM MDT. Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
Tags: number
public
storm
advisory
Sites : [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] next »