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Summary for Tropical Storm JAVIER (EP1/EP112016)

2016-08-08 22:50:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...LATEST HURRICANE HUNTER OBSERVATIONS SHOW JAVIER A LITTLE STRONGER... As of 3:00 PM MDT Mon Aug 8 the center of JAVIER was located near 22.5, -109.6 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

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Tropical Storm JAVIER Public Advisory Number 7

2016-08-08 22:50:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 300 PM MDT MON AUG 08 2016 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 082049 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM JAVIER ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112016 300 PM MDT MON AUG 08 2016 ...LATEST HURRICANE HUNTER OBSERVATIONS SHOW JAVIER A LITTLE STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.5N 109.6W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cabo San Lazaro to Los Barriles A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * San Evaristo to Cabo San Lazaro A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * San Evaristo to Loreto * Cabo San Lazaro to Puerto San Andresito For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Javier was located near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 109.6 West. Javier is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion with a slight decrease in forward speed is expected through Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Javier will pass near or over the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula later today and tonight, and move near the west coast of Baja California Sur on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight additional strengthening is possible while the center passes near the southern Baja California peninsula this evening and tonight. A weakening trend is forecast to begin by Tuesday afternoon. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported a minimum central pressure of 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Javier is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches over coastal parts of the Mexican states of Sinaloa and southern Sonora into Baja California Sur with possible isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches through Wednesday morning. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area as early as this evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area over the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula later today and tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area over the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula on Tuesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM MDT. Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Tropical Storm JAVIER Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7

2016-08-08 22:50:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 08 2016 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 082050 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM JAVIER WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112016 2100 UTC MON AUG 08 2016 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JAVIER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 17(24) 12(36) X(36) X(36) P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) P ABREOJOS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 43 2(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 6 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAN JOSE CABO 34 95 X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) SAN JOSE CABO 50 9 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) LA PAZ 34 31 37(68) 1(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) LA PAZ 50 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) LORETO 34 X 4( 4) 12(16) 4(20) 3(23) X(23) X(23) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BAHIA KINO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GUAYMAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) HUATABAMPO 34 X 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LOS MOCHIS 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CULIACAN 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Tropical Storm JAVIER Forecast Advisory Number 7

2016-08-08 22:49:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 08 2016 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 082049 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM JAVIER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112016 2100 UTC MON AUG 08 2016 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CABO SAN LAZARO TO LOS BARRILES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAN EVARISTO TO CABO SAN LAZARO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAN EVARISTO TO LORETO * CABO SAN LAZARO TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 109.6W AT 08/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 10NE 10SE 10SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 40SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 109.6W AT 08/2100Z AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 109.3W FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 23.3N 110.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 24.3N 111.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 25.2N 112.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 26.2N 113.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 27.5N 114.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.5N 109.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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