je.st
news
Tag: javier
Tropical Storm JAVIER Public Advisory Number 3A
2016-08-08 01:57:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 600 PM MDT SUN AUG 07 2016 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 072357 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM JAVIER INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112016 600 PM MDT SUN AUG 07 2016 ...JAVIER STRENGTHENS A LITTLE... SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.2N 107.3W ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM SW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning from Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Southern portion of the Baja California peninsula from La Paz southward and westward to Santa Fe, including Cabo San Lucas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... *Southern portion of the Baja California peninsula north of Santa Fe to Cabo San Lazaro A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours for the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Javier was located near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 107.3 West. Javier is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected tonight, and this motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected to continue through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of the tropical cyclone should pass offshore of the southwest coast of Mexico today, and approach the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or so. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Javier is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over western or coastal parts of the Mexican states of Colima, Jalisco, Michoacan, Nayarit and the southern part of Baja California Sur with possible isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches through Tuesday morning. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of the southwest coast of Mexico in the warning area, and should continue for the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected over the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula within the warning area by Monday night Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area over the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula on Tuesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart/Cangialosi
Tags: number
public
storm
advisory
Tropical Storm JAVIER Graphics
2016-08-07 23:11:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 07 Aug 2016 20:47:14 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 07 Aug 2016 21:05:12 GMT
Tags: graphics
storm
tropical
javier
Tropical Storm JAVIER Forecast Discussion Number 3
2016-08-07 22:46:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT SUN AUG 07 2016 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 072046 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112016 300 PM MDT SUN AUG 07 2016 Javier has not become better organized during the day, and the associated deep convection is ragged-looking and not very extensive. Based on the earlier surface wind report from Manzanillo, the current intensity is held at 40 kt. The storm is experiencing some easterly shear, but gradual intensification while Javier passes over the warm waters to the south of the Baja California peninsula seems likely. The official intensity forecast again follows the SHIPS model guidance. The cyclone accelerated somewhat today, and the initial motion estimate is 300/12 kt. Javier is moving along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level anticyclone centered near Texas. In the next couple of days, the system should gradually turn toward the right as a trough near California weakens the ridge. The GFS and ECMWF global models have shifted to the left of their previous forecasts, so the official forecast is also shifted in that direction. The official forecast track lies between the GFS/ECMWF solutions and the latest HWRF model run. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 19.5N 106.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 20.4N 108.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 21.4N 109.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 09/0600Z 22.2N 110.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 09/1800Z 23.2N 111.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 10/1800Z 25.6N 112.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 11/1800Z 28.0N 114.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm JAVIER Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2016-08-07 22:46:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 07 2016 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 072046 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM JAVIER WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112016 2100 UTC SUN AUG 07 2016 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JAVIER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 10(13) 6(19) X(19) P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 1 31(32) 33(65) 7(72) 1(73) X(73) X(73) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X 2( 2) 15(17) 6(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAN JOSE CABO 34 1 26(27) 29(56) 7(63) 1(64) X(64) X(64) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 5(14) X(14) 1(15) X(15) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LA PAZ 34 1 6( 7) 18(25) 22(47) 6(53) X(53) X(53) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11) LA PAZ 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) LORETO 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 14(23) 3(26) X(26) LORETO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) LOS MOCHIS 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) CULIACAN 34 1 4( 5) 5(10) 7(17) 3(20) X(20) X(20) MAZATLAN 34 1 5( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) SAN BLAS 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) P VALLARTA 34 7 2( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ISLAS MARIAS 34 25 3(28) 2(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tropical Storm JAVIER Forecast Advisory Number 3
2016-08-07 22:45:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 07 2016 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 072045 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM JAVIER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112016 2100 UTC SUN AUG 07 2016 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO SANTA FE...INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS...AND ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH NORTH OF SANTA FE TO CABO SAN LAZARO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES * SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO SANTA FE...INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... *SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF SANTA FE TO CABO SAN LAZARO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 106.6W AT 07/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 106.6W AT 07/2100Z AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 106.2W FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 20.4N 108.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 21.4N 109.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 22.2N 110.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 23.2N 111.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 25.6N 112.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 28.0N 114.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 106.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tags: number
storm
advisory
tropical
Sites : [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] next »