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Hurricane NICOLE Public Advisory Number 13
2016-10-07 10:36:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST FRI OCT 07 2016 000 WTNT35 KNHC 070835 TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE NICOLE ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 500 AM AST FRI OCT 07 2016 ...NICOLE WEAKENS A LITTLE WHILE DRIFTING SOUTHWARD... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.3N 65.2W ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM S OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 180 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nicole was located near latitude 27.3 North, longitude 65.2 West. Nicole is drifting southward, and a slightly faster southward motion is expected tonight and on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells associated with Nicole, along with rough surf conditions, will affect Bermuda for the next few days. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane NICOLE Forecast Discussion Number 12
2016-10-07 04:42:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST THU OCT 06 2016 000 WTNT45 KNHC 070241 TCDAT5 HURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 1100 PM AST THU OCT 06 2016 Nicole has rapidly intensified during the day, with a pinhole eye apparent in satellite and microwave imagery. Although the eye has recently become obscured, Dvorak satellite estimates support an initial intensity of 90 kt for this advisory. All of the guidance suggests that the shear near Nicole should increase during the next couple of days since the tropical cyclone will be in an environment of increasingly strong upper-level northerly winds. Thus Nicole is probably near its peak intensity, and slow weakening is forecast from Friday through the weekend. The large-scale environment could become more conducive for re-intensification by days 4 or 5, and some restrengthening is shown around that time. The new intensity forecast is very close to the previous one, slightly above the model consensus. Nicole has moved very little during the past several hours. The hurricane will likely begin to drift southward by tomorrow afternoon due to steering from the western side of a mid-level trough. Thereafter, Nicole could gradually turn toward the southwest, west, and northwest over the next few days around a ridge over the western Atlantic Ocean. There is better agreement in the guidance than yesterday, although the ECMWF remains a bit of an outlier solution to the east. Since a stronger system would likely respond more to the deep-layer northerly flow, the new NHC track is shifted a bit to the south of the previous forecast in a couple of days, but ends up close to the last NHC advisory by day 5. A climate note: This is the first time since September 10, 1964 that two Category 2 (or stronger) hurricanes have occurred simultaneously in the Atlantic basin west of 65W. Interestingly, those hurricanes in 1964, Dora and Ethel, were in similar positions as Matthew and Nicole are now. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 27.4N 65.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 27.3N 65.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 26.8N 65.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 26.1N 64.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 09/0000Z 25.5N 64.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 10/0000Z 26.0N 66.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 11/0000Z 27.5N 67.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 12/0000Z 29.0N 68.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane NICOLE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2016-10-07 04:36:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI OCT 07 2016 000 FONT15 KNHC 070236 PWSAT5 HURRICANE NICOLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 0300 UTC FRI OCT 07 2016 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NICOLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BERMUDA 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 5(11) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Summary for Hurricane NICOLE (AT5/AL152016)
2016-10-07 04:36:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NICOLE BECOMES A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE... As of 11:00 PM AST Thu Oct 6 the center of NICOLE was located near 27.4, -65.2 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 968 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.
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Hurricane NICOLE Public Advisory Number 12
2016-10-07 04:36:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST THU OCT 06 2016 000 WTNT35 KNHC 070236 TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE NICOLE ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 1100 PM AST THU OCT 06 2016 ...NICOLE BECOMES A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.4N 65.2W ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM S OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nicole was located near latitude 27.4 North, longitude 65.2 West. Nicole is currently stationary but is expected to drift generally southward on Friday and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is likely to begin on Friday with Nicole. Nicole is a small tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm- force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells associated with Nicole, along with rough surf conditions, will affect Bermuda for the next few days. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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