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Hurricane KARINA Forecast Discussion Number 44
2014-08-23 22:47:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SAT AUG 23 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 232047 TCDEP1 HURRICANE KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 44 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 200 PM PDT SAT AUG 23 2014 The eye of Karina has begun to fill during the past few hours, and deep convection has decreased slightly on the north side of the cyclone. A blend of the 1800 UTC Dvorak CI- and T-numbers still yields an initial wind speed estimate of 70 kt. Since that time, the cloud pattern of the cyclone has begun to deteriorate, suggesting that the predicted weakening trend may already be occurring. The hurricane is currently crossing the 26 deg C isotherm and dry air is wrapping around the circulation, as seen in total precipitable water imagery. The influence of these unfavorable thermodynamic factors should cause steady weakening to remnant low status in 3 to 4 days. The NHC intensity forecast is again an update of the previous one and lies close to the multi-model consensus. Karina is turning toward the right in the broad southwesterly flow to the south of Lowell, and the latest initial motion estimate is 055/6. The models are coming into better agreement in showing Karina moving on a general east-northeasterly path with a decrease in forward speed before being absorbed into the much larger circulation of Hurricane Marie in 4 to 5 days. However, there is still some guidance that shows Karina interacting with Lowell, which would result in a west-northwestward motion. Since most of the track guidance now favors the absorption of Karina by Marie, the NHC track forecast has been adjusted eastward and shows the cyclone becoming stationary at days 3 and 4. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 17.3N 133.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 17.7N 132.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 18.0N 130.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 18.3N 129.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 25/1800Z 18.6N 128.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 26/1800Z 19.0N 127.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 27/1800Z 19.0N 127.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane KARINA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 44
2014-08-23 22:45:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 23 2014 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 232045 PWSEP1 HURRICANE KARINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 44 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 2100 UTC SAT AUG 23 2014 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KARINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 133.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Hurricane KARINA Forecast Advisory Number 44
2014-08-23 22:39:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 23 2014 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 232039 TCMEP1 HURRICANE KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 44 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 2100 UTC SAT AUG 23 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 133.5W AT 23/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 10SE 10SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 60SE 60SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 180SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 133.5W AT 23/2100Z AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 133.8W FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 17.7N 132.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 18.0N 130.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 10NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 18.3N 129.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 18.6N 128.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 19.0N 127.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 19.0N 127.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 133.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Hurricane KARINA Graphics
2014-08-23 17:11:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 23 Aug 2014 14:38:48 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 23 Aug 2014 15:05:47 GMT
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Hurricane KARINA Forecast Discussion Number 43
2014-08-23 16:37:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SAT AUG 23 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 231437 TCDEP1 HURRICANE KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 43 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 800 AM PDT SAT AUG 23 2014 The compact hurricane is maintaining its strength this morning. The eye of Karina has become a little more distinct during the past few hours and cloud tops remain quite cold to the south of the center. The initial wind speed is held at 70 kt based on a blend of the latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB, SAB, and ADT values from UW-CIMSS. The hurricane will soon cross the 26 C isotherm, and total precipitable water imagery shows some dry air beginning to wrap around the circulation. These environmental conditions combined with some increase in shear should cause the weakening process to begin later today or tonight. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one and lies fairly close to the intensity model consensus, IVCN. Karina is moving northeastward at about 6 kt in the broad southwesterly flow to the south of much larger but weaker Tropical Storm Lowell. A turn toward the east-northeast is expected later today and that general motion should continue for the the next couple of days. Beyond that time, however, the models have differing solutions. The previous discussion outlined the varying scenarios of what could drive Karina northward and northwestward as it interacts with what is left of Lowell, and the possibility that Karina stalls or is driven further eastward due to its interaction with Hurricane Marie. The models are trending toward the latter scenario, and the NHC official track forecast shows a slower forward speed at days 3-5 to account for that information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 17.2N 134.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 17.6N 133.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 18.2N 131.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 18.7N 129.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 19.0N 129.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 26/1200Z 20.3N 129.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 27/1200Z 20.8N 130.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 28/1200Z 21.0N 131.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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