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Tropical Storm KARINA Public Advisory Number 34
2014-08-21 10:37:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT THU AUG 21 2014 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 210837 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 200 AM PDT THU AUG 21 2014 ...KARINA DRIFTING TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND A LITTLE WEAKER... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.6N 136.2W ABOUT 1275 MI...2050 KM E OF HILO HAWAII ABOUT 1785 MI...2870 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 110 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 136.2 WEST. KARINA IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H. A SLOW SOUTHEASTWARD TO EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY AN ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm KARINA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 34
2014-08-21 10:37:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 21 2014 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 210837 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 0900 UTC THU AUG 21 2014 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 136.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tropical Storm KARINA Forecast Advisory Number 34
2014-08-21 10:37:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 21 2014 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 210837 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 0900 UTC THU AUG 21 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 136.2W AT 21/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 110 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 136.2W AT 21/0900Z AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 136.3W FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 15.3N 136.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 15.1N 135.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 15.6N 134.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 16.5N 133.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 18.5N 130.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 50SE 30SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 22.5N 128.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 28.5N 131.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 136.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm KARINA Graphics
2014-08-21 05:09:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 21 Aug 2014 02:47:59 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 21 Aug 2014 03:04:45 GMT
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Tropical Storm KARINA Forecast Discussion Number 33
2014-08-21 04:47:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT WED AUG 20 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 210247 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 800 PM PDT WED AUG 20 2014 After looking fairly robust on the previous advisory, 25-30 kt of vertical wind shear has left the convective cloud pattern looking rather disheveled over the past several hours. A 20/2318 UTC AMSU overpass indicated that the strong shear had displaced the mid-level circulation at least 45 nmi southwest of the now fully exposed low-level center. Satellite intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB have decreased, yielding an average intensity estimate of 50 kt, which is the initial intensity used for this advisory. As expected, the steering currents have collapsed and Karina has been meandering in the same general area for the past 12 hours or so. Little motion is expected tonight, with a drift to the east or east-southeast forecast to begin on Thursday. After that, Karina is expected to begin moving slowly northeastward as it comes under the influence of the large circulation of Tropical Storm Lowell located well to the east of the cyclone. As the distance between the two systems decreases, smaller Karina is expected to accelerate northeastward and then northward within the eastern portion of Lowell's circulation, gradually getting drawn closer to the center of Lowell. NHC guidance remains in excellent agreement on this developing track scenario, and the official forecast is similar to but a little east of the consensus model TVCE in order to maintain a reasonable physical distance between the centers of the two tropical cyclones. Fluctuations in the amount of Lowell-induced shear that will affect Karina will also result in fluctuations in the cyclone's intensity for the 72 hours while it remains over 26C and warmer SSTs. But overall, no significant intensity changes are expected for the next 2 to 3 days. After that, however, increasing shear as Karina moves closer to Lowell's center, plus sharply decreasing sea-surface temperatures, will induce weakening on Days 4 and 5. Karina is expected to become a post-tropical remnant low pressure system by 96 hours, but given the rather small size of the cyclone, it is possible that the system could degenerate into an open trough as it interacts with the larger circulation of Tropical Storm Lowell. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 15.9N 136.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 15.7N 136.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 22/0000Z 15.5N 135.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 22/1200Z 15.6N 135.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 23/0000Z 16.3N 134.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 24/0000Z 18.3N 131.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 25/0000Z 21.4N 128.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 26/0000Z 27.0N 129.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart
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