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Hurricane KARINA Public Advisory Number 40
2014-08-22 22:31:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 222031 TCPEP1 BULLETIN HURRICANE KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER 40 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 200 PM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014 ...KARINA BECOMES A HURRICANE AGAIN... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.5N 135.2W ABOUT 1340 MI...2155 KM E OF HILO HAWAII ABOUT 1725 MI...2775 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KARINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 135.2 WEST. KARINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KARINA IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...ALTHOUGH SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE. KARINA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM ON SATURDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Hurricane KARINA Forecast Advisory Number 40
2014-08-22 22:31:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 22 2014 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 222031 TCMEP1 HURRICANE KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 40 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 2100 UTC FRI AUG 22 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 135.2W AT 22/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 10SE 10SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 60SE 60SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 135.2W AT 22/2100Z AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 135.4W FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 16.1N 134.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 10SE 10SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 17.0N 133.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 10NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 17.6N 132.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 18.2N 130.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 19.5N 129.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 21.0N 130.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 21.7N 133.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 135.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Tropical Storm KARINA Graphics
2014-08-22 17:11:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 22 Aug 2014 14:38:28 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 22 Aug 2014 15:05:48 GMT
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Tropical Storm KARINA Forecast Discussion Number 39
2014-08-22 16:37:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 221437 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 39 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 800 AM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014 Conventional satellite imagery shows that the cloud pattern of Karina has been improving during the past 6 hours, and a banding eye feature is becoming apparent in the most recent images. An ADT objective intensity estimate and a Dvorak classification from TAFB support an intensity of 55 kt. However, based on the forming banding eye feature and an emerging small warm spot visible in the infrared BD-curve enhancement, the initial intensity is increased to 60 kt. The official intensity forecast follows the IVCN intensity model blend, with little change in intensity expected through the next couple of days. Beyond 48 hours, a weakening trend should commence primarily due to the cyclone traversing cooler water and the intrusion of a stable and dry air mass from the northwest. The current motion is estimated to be 055/3, or northeastward, within the mid-tropospheric flow produced by the larger tropical storm Lowell to the north. The deterministic models indicate that Lowell will continue to influence Karina to move in a northeastward to east-northeastward fashion through day 3. At days 4 and 5, a weakening Lowell is expected to pass to the north and northwest of Karina while a mid-level ridge builds in behind Lowell from the southwestern U.S. The westward building ridge is expected to turn Karina toward the northwest and eventually toward the west by the end of the period. This scenario and the official forecast is based on the GFEX (GFS and ECMWF consensus), and is close to the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 15.0N 135.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 15.8N 135.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 16.6N 134.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 17.3N 132.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 17.8N 131.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 25/1200Z 19.0N 129.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 26/1200Z 20.7N 130.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 27/1200Z 22.3N 133.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm KARINA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 39
2014-08-22 16:37:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 22 2014 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 221437 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 39 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 1500 UTC FRI AUG 22 2014 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 135.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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