je.st
news
Tag: karina
Tropical Storm KARINA Forecast Discussion Number 37
2014-08-22 04:36:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT THU AUG 21 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 220236 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 37 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 800 PM PDT THU AUG 21 2014 Deep convection has continued to develop near the center of Karina, especially in the southern semicircle, and the low-level center is embedded in the middle of the more circular cloud shield. Two earlier ASCAT passes showed 50 kt and 52 kt peak surface winds to the southeast of the center, so the intensity has been bumped up to 55 kt for this advisory. The initial motion estimate is 090/02 kt based on microwave satellite positions over the past several hours. After nearly three days of saying the same thing in our discussions, there isn't much more to add. Karina will gradually get pulled eastward and northeastward by the larger circulation of Tropical Storm Lowell, as the latter cyclone passes to the northeast of Karina in 2-3 days. The majority of the NHC track guidance is now indicating a considerably slower forward speed on Days 4 and 5 as Karina weakens over cold water and becomes more vertically shallow. The official advisory track is similar to but a little faster than the consensus model TVCE out of respect for the faster GFS model. Recent microwave images continue to show a partial eyewall structure. The vertical shear is forecast to subside to around 5 kt during the next 12 hours, so there is a brief window of opportunity for Karina to strengthen. However, the vertical shear is forecast to increase again at 24 hours and beyond as the cyclone begins to move over cooler water. This combination of unfavorable conditions should induce gradual weakening, with the Karina becoming a non-convective remnant low pressure by 96 hours when the cyclone is moving over 22-23C sea-surface temperatures and into a much cooler and drier airmass. The NHC intensity forecast closely follows the intensity consensus model ICON. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 14.8N 136.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 15.1N 135.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 15.7N 135.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 23/1200Z 16.4N 134.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 24/0000Z 17.3N 132.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 25/0000Z 19.0N 129.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 26/0000Z 21.5N 129.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 27/0000Z 25.5N 130.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Summary for Tropical Storm KARINA (EP1/EP112014)
2014-08-22 04:36:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KARINA DRIFTING EASTWARD... As of 8:00 PM PDT Thu Aug 21 the center of KARINA was located near 14.8, -136.5 with movement E at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
Tags: summary
storm
tropical
tropical storm
Tropical Storm KARINA Public Advisory Number 37
2014-08-22 04:36:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT THU AUG 21 2014 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 220236 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER 37 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 800 PM PDT THU AUG 21 2014 ...KARINA DRIFTING EASTWARD... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.8N 136.5W ABOUT 1270 MI...2045 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII ABOUT 1820 MI...2935 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 136.5 WEST. KARINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY. A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tags: number
public
storm
advisory
Tropical Storm KARINA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 37
2014-08-22 04:36:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 22 2014 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 220236 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 37 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 0300 UTC FRI AUG 22 2014 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 136.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm KARINA Forecast Advisory Number 37
2014-08-22 04:35:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 22 2014 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 220235 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 0300 UTC FRI AUG 22 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 136.5W AT 22/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 136.5W AT 22/0300Z AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 136.6W FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 15.1N 135.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 15.7N 135.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 16.4N 134.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 17.3N 132.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 19.0N 129.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 21.5N 129.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 25.5N 130.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 136.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tags: number
storm
advisory
tropical
Sites : [33] [34] [35] [36] [37] [38] [39] [40] [41] [42] [43] [44] [45] [46] [47] [48] [49] [50] [51] [52] next »