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Hurricane KARINA Forecast Advisory Number 41
2014-08-23 04:47:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 23 2014 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 230247 TCMEP1 HURRICANE KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 41 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 0300 UTC SAT AUG 23 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 134.9W AT 23/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 10SE 10SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 60SE 60SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 180SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 134.9W AT 23/0300Z AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 135.0W FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 16.8N 134.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 10SE 10SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 17.6N 132.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 10NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 18.2N 131.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 18.7N 129.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 20.0N 128.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 20.7N 130.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 21.0N 132.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 134.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY/BEVEN
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Hurricane KARINA Graphics
2014-08-22 23:11:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 22 Aug 2014 20:33:00 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 22 Aug 2014 21:05:48 GMT
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Hurricane KARINA Forecast Discussion Number 40
2014-08-22 22:35:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 222035 TCDEP1 HURRICANE KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 40 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 200 PM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014 A symmetric convective ring or eye feature noted in a 1659 UTC SSMIS microwave overpass and a cloud-filled eye in visible images indicate that Karina has regained hurricane status. Dvorak satellite intensity estimates of T4.0/65kt from both TAFB and SAB are the basis for raising the initial intensity to 65 kt. Karina is expected to maintain hurricane strength during the next 12 hours or so before the cyclone moves over sub-26C sea surface temperatures and into a less conducive thermodynamic environment. Weakening is expected to continue through the remainder of the forecast period and Karina is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by day 5. The new NHC forecast is a little below the latest IVCN consensus. The initial motion is estimated to be 050/5, or northeastward, within the mid-tropospheric flow of large Tropical Storm Lowell located to the north. There is little change in the forecast track from the previous advisory. Karina is expected to move northeastward to east-northeastward during the next 48 hours under the influence of Lowell's large circulation. Through the remaining portion of the forecast period, Karina should turn toward the northwest and ultimately toward the west as a mid-level ridge builds in behind Lowell from the southwestern U.S. The NHC official forecast is basically an update from the previous package and is close to the GFEX (GFS and ECMWF consensus) and the TVCE multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 15.5N 135.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 16.1N 134.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 17.0N 133.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 17.6N 132.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 24/1800Z 18.2N 130.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 25/1800Z 19.5N 129.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 26/1800Z 21.0N 130.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 27/1800Z 21.7N 133.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Hurricane KARINA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 40
2014-08-22 22:32:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 22 2014 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 222032 PWSEP1 HURRICANE KARINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 40 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 2100 UTC FRI AUG 22 2014 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KARINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 135.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Summary for Hurricane KARINA (EP1/EP112014)
2014-08-22 22:31:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KARINA BECOMES A HURRICANE AGAIN... As of 2:00 PM PDT Fri Aug 22 the center of KARINA was located near 15.5, -135.2 with movement NE at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 989 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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