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Tropical Storm KARINA Graphics
2014-08-21 23:09:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 21 Aug 2014 20:38:17 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 21 Aug 2014 21:04:46 GMT
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Tropical Storm KARINA Forecast Discussion Number 36
2014-08-21 22:37:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT THU AUG 21 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 212037 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 36 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 200 PM PDT THU AUG 21 2014 Karina has a fairly well-organized appearance on visible satellite imagery, and microwave images show that a partial eyewall structure is being maintained. Based on these factors, the initial intensity is maintained at 50 kt for this advisory. This is somewhat above the most recent Dvorak estimates. The storm should more or less maintain its intensity for the next 24 hours or so. Dry mid-level air near the cyclone is expected to cause a weakening trend to begin tomorrow and, later in the forecast period, cooler waters should also result in weakening. Karina is expected to degenerate into a remnant low after 72 hours. The official wind speed forecast is in reasonable agreement with the intensity model consensus. The center is easy to track in visible imagery and the motion estimate is 160/3. The steering of Karina is likely to be dominated by the larger circulation of Hurricane Lowell, which should be passing to the northeast of Karina in a few days. The flow over the southern and southeastern portions of Lowell's circulation should draw Karina northeastward and, eventually, northward during the forecast period. The official track forecast is similar to the latest Florida State University Superensemble prediction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 14.7N 136.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 14.7N 136.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 15.3N 135.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 23/0600Z 15.9N 134.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 23/1800Z 16.7N 133.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 24/1800Z 18.5N 130.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 25/1800Z 22.0N 128.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 26/1800Z 26.0N 130.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm KARINA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 36
2014-08-21 22:36:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 21 2014 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 212036 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 36 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 2100 UTC THU AUG 21 2014 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 136.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Summary for Tropical Storm KARINA (EP1/EP112014)
2014-08-21 22:35:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KARINA MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD... As of 2:00 PM PDT Thu Aug 21 the center of KARINA was located near 14.7, -136.7 with movement SSE at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm KARINA Public Advisory Number 36
2014-08-21 22:35:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT THU AUG 21 2014 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 212035 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER 36 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 200 PM PDT THU AUG 21 2014 ...KARINA MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.7N 136.7W ABOUT 1260 MI...2030 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII ABOUT 1835 MI...2955 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 160 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 136.7 WEST. KARINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H...AND A TURN TOWARD THE EAST AND NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON FRIDAY. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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