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Tropical Storm KARINA Forecast Advisory Number 36
2014-08-21 22:35:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 21 2014 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 212035 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 2100 UTC THU AUG 21 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 136.7W AT 21/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OR 160 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 136.7W AT 21/2100Z AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 136.8W FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 14.7N 136.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 15.3N 135.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 15.9N 134.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 16.7N 133.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 18.5N 130.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 22.0N 128.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 26.0N 130.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 136.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm KARINA Graphics
2014-08-21 17:09:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 21 Aug 2014 14:36:15 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 21 Aug 2014 15:04:45 GMT
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Tropical Storm KARINA Forecast Discussion Number 35
2014-08-21 16:35:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT THU AUG 21 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 211435 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 800 AM PDT THU AUG 21 2014 Although Karina's appearance on geostationary satellite imagery is not very impressive, a recent GPM microwave satellite image showed a partial eyewall feature. This indicates that the inner core is well defined, and the intensity estimate is increased to 50 kt, which is a little above the latest Dvorak estimates. It appears that the vertical shear over the storm has relaxed a little, but Karina is over marginal sea surface temperatures and the forecast track takes the cyclone over cooler waters. A weakening trend is likely to commence in 24 hours or so, as shown by the official wind speed forecast. This forecast is a little below the intensity model consensus. Based on an excellent fix from the aforementioned microwave image, the center has been repositioned a bit south of the previously estimated track. This yields an initial motion estimate of 180/2 kt. Karina remains in an environment of weak steering currents at this time. However, as the larger Hurricane Lowell moves northwest, the separation distance between Karina and Lowell will be decreasing, which will increase the influence of the latter cyclone on the former. The flow over the southern and southeastern portions of Lowell's circulation should cause Karina to turn toward the northeast with some acceleration over the next few days, and eventually move northward to north-northwestward late in the period. The official forecast is a little slower than the dynamical model consensus, and similar to the latest Florida State University Superensemble track. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 15.0N 136.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 14.8N 136.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 15.0N 135.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 15.6N 135.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 23/1200Z 16.4N 134.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 24/1200Z 18.5N 131.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 25/1200Z 23.0N 129.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 26/1200Z 27.5N 131.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm KARINA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 35
2014-08-21 16:34:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 21 2014 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 211434 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 1500 UTC THU AUG 21 2014 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 136.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Summary for Tropical Storm KARINA (EP1/EP112014)
2014-08-21 16:34:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KARINA RESTRENGTHENS A LITTLE... As of 8:00 AM PDT Thu Aug 21 the center of KARINA was located near 15.0, -136.9 with movement S at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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