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Summary for Tropical Storm Emilia (EP1/EP062018)

2018-06-29 04:31:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...EMILIA HEADING FOR COOLER WATERS... As of 9:00 PM MDT Thu Jun 28 the center of Emilia was located near 15.4, -114.5 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

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Tropical Storm Emilia Public Advisory Number 6

2018-06-29 04:31:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 PM MDT Thu Jun 28 2018 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 290231 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Emilia Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062018 900 PM MDT Thu Jun 28 2018 ...EMILIA HEADING FOR COOLER WATERS... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.4N 114.5W ABOUT 600 MI...965 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Emilia was located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 114.5 West. Emilia is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours before weakening over cool waters begins over the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Avila

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Tropical Storm Emilia Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6

2018-06-29 04:31:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUN 29 2018 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 290231 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062018 0300 UTC FRI JUN 29 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 115W 34 97 X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) 15N 115W 50 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 120W 34 1 4( 5) 9(14) 2(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) 20N 120W 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 7(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 25(28) 5(33) X(33) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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Tropical Storm Emilia Forecast Advisory Number 6

2018-06-29 04:31:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUN 29 2018 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 290231 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062018 0300 UTC FRI JUN 29 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 114.5W AT 29/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 114.5W AT 29/0300Z AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 114.0W FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 16.0N 116.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 16.6N 117.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 17.3N 119.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 18.0N 121.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 19.7N 125.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 21.5N 129.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 23.0N 133.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 114.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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