je.st
news
Tag: emilia
Tropical Storm Emilia Forecast Discussion Number 5
2018-06-28 22:31:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Jun 28 2018 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 282031 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062018 300 PM MDT Thu Jun 28 2018 Satellite images indicate that Emilia is better organized than this morning, with a large banding feature wrapping around the western semicircle. There is still a fair amount of northeasterly shear, however, since the eastern part of the circulation is partially exposed. A blend of the Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB gives an initial wind speed of 40 kt. Further strengthening is expected over the next day or so while Emilia experiences decreasing shear over warm waters. A gradual decline in intensity should begin over the weekend due to the storm encountering cooler SSTs and entraining drier more stable air. Model guidance is a bit higher with the peak intensity of Emilia on this cycle, and the official prediction follows suit, ending up near the corrected consensus models. The storm continues to move west-northwestward this afternoon. A gradual decrease in Emilia's forward speed should occur over the next few days due to a weakening mid-level ridge to the north. The global models are still indicating a break in the subtropical ridge persisting at long range, which would keep the west-northwestward motion going throughout the period. The only change to the track forecast is a northward adjustment at days 4 and 5 to better match the poleward-trending models, although the official forecast remains on the southern side of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 14.9N 113.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 15.5N 115.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 29/1800Z 16.2N 117.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 30/0600Z 16.9N 118.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 30/1800Z 17.5N 120.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 01/1800Z 19.0N 123.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 02/1800Z 21.0N 127.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 03/1800Z 22.5N 131.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Blake
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Summary for Tropical Storm Emilia (EP1/EP062018)
2018-06-28 22:31:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...EMILIA A LITTLE STRONGER... As of 3:00 PM MDT Thu Jun 28 the center of Emilia was located near 14.9, -113.6 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
Tags: summary
storm
tropical
tropical storm
Tropical Storm Emilia Public Advisory Number 5
2018-06-28 22:31:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Jun 28 2018 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 282030 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Emilia Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062018 300 PM MDT Thu Jun 28 2018 ...EMILIA A LITTLE STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.9N 113.6W ABOUT 605 MI...970 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Emilia was located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 113.6 West. Emilia is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours before weakening begins over the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
Tags: number
public
storm
advisory
Tropical Storm Emilia Forecast Advisory Number 5
2018-06-28 22:31:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUN 28 2018 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 282030 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062018 2100 UTC THU JUN 28 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 113.6W AT 28/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 90SE 60SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 113.6W AT 28/2100Z AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 113.1W FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 15.5N 115.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 16.2N 117.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 16.9N 118.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 17.5N 120.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 19.0N 123.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 21.0N 127.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 22.5N 131.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 113.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Tags: number
storm
advisory
tropical
Tropical Storm Emilia Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2018-06-28 22:31:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUN 28 2018 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 282030 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062018 2100 UTC THU JUN 28 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 1 5( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 15N 115W 34 91 2(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) 15N 115W 50 11 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) 15N 115W 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 120W 34 X 5( 5) 10(15) 4(19) 2(21) X(21) X(21) 20N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) 5(16) X(16) X(16) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 13(27) X(27) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Sites : [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] next »