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Tropical Storm Emilia Forecast Discussion Number 4
2018-06-28 16:37:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Thu Jun 28 2018 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 281436 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062018 900 AM MDT Thu Jun 28 2018 Deep convection continues in the western semicircle of the cyclone, although a fair portion of the eastern side of the low-level circulation is exposed due to shear. Satellite classifications are essentially the same as 6 hours ago, so the initial wind speed will stay 35 kt. Global models are in good agreement that the wind shear will decrease over the next 24 hours, which should promote strengthening. In a couple of days, Emilia is predicted to move over cool SSTs and through a drier environment, causing its inevitable weakening to begin. The official forecast is essentially an update of the previous one, showing a gradual increase in strength until late Friday, then weakening on Sunday. Emilia should become a remnant low by 96 hours as it moves over SSTs of about 23C. Emilia has been a challenging storm to track because of limited microwave passes and an elongated low-level structure. Even with 1-min GOES-16 visible data, it is difficult to tell how embedded the center of Emilia is within the deep convection. The available data suggest the storm has slowed a little bit and turned to the right, so my motion estimate is 290/12 kt. A mid-level ridge over Mexico and the adjacent eastern Pacific should gradually weaken during the next few days, resulting in a reduction of Emilia's forward speed. The biggest change from the last forecast cycle is that there could be a more substantial break in the subtropical ridge in the medium-range period, allowing the storm to continue a more west-northwestward motion, rather than taking a climatological westward turn. This track is dependent on how strong the cyclone is at that time and, since Emilia is forecast to be rather weak at long range, the official forecast is on the southern side of the guidance envelope, albeit with a northward adjustment since the last advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 14.4N 112.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 15.1N 114.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 15.9N 116.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 16.6N 118.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 17.2N 119.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 01/1200Z 18.6N 123.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 02/1200Z 20.5N 126.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 03/1200Z 21.5N 131.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Emilia Graphics
2018-06-28 16:36:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 28 Jun 2018 14:36:58 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 28 Jun 2018 15:25:49 GMT
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Tropical Storm Emilia Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2018-06-28 16:36:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUN 28 2018 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 281436 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062018 1500 UTC THU JUN 28 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 115W 34 9 62(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) 15N 115W 50 1 10(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) 15N 115W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 3(15) X(15) X(15) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) X(12) X(12) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 12(19) 1(20) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Summary for Tropical Storm Emilia (EP1/EP062018)
2018-06-28 16:35:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...EMILIA EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN... As of 9:00 AM MDT Thu Jun 28 the center of Emilia was located near 14.4, -112.4 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Emilia Public Advisory Number 4
2018-06-28 16:35:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Thu Jun 28 2018 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 281435 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Emilia Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062018 900 AM MDT Thu Jun 28 2018 ...EMILIA EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.4N 112.4W ABOUT 610 MI...980 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Emilia was located near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 112.4 West. Emilia is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours before weakening begins on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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