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Summary for Tropical Storm Emilia (EP1/EP062018)
2018-06-29 10:37:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...EMILIA MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE OPEN PACIFIC... As of 2:00 AM PDT Fri Jun 29 the center of Emilia was located near 16.0, -115.3 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Emilia Public Advisory Number 7
2018-06-29 10:37:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Fri Jun 29 2018 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 290837 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Emilia Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062018 200 AM PDT Fri Jun 29 2018 ...EMILIA MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE OPEN PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.0N 115.3W ABOUT 590 MI...955 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Emilia was located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 115.3 West. Emilia is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Slight strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours or so before Emilia moves over cool waters and begins to weaken over the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Emilia Forecast Advisory Number 7
2018-06-29 10:37:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUN 29 2018 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 290837 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062018 0900 UTC FRI JUN 29 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 115.3W AT 29/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 115.3W AT 29/0900Z AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 114.8W FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 16.5N 116.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 17.2N 118.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 17.8N 120.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 18.4N 122.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 20.0N 126.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 21.5N 129.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 23.0N 133.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 115.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Emilia Graphics
2018-06-29 04:33:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 29 Jun 2018 02:33:24 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 29 Jun 2018 02:33:24 GMT
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Tropical Storm Emilia Forecast Discussion Number 6
2018-06-29 04:32:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Thu Jun 28 2018 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 290232 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062018 900 PM MDT Thu Jun 28 2018 Several microwave images during the day revealed that Emilia continues to be a sheared cyclone with the center to the east of a convective mass. However, it appears that during the past hour or so, the center is a little closer to the edge of the thunderstorm activity, and Dvorak T-numbers are now indicative of a 45-kt tropical cyclone. Model guidance is not showing much decrease in the northeasterly shear for the next 24 to 36 h, and this scenario only allows for slight strengthening. In addition, by the time the shear is forecast to decrease, the circulation of Emilia will be affected by cooler waters. By then, a decay in intensity is anticipated. Emilia is moving toward the west-northwest or 290 degrees at about 10 kt, steered by the flow around a narrow subtropical ridge to the north of the cyclone. Most of the global models indicate that the ridge will persist for the next several days, and the forecast flow pattern should keep Emilia on the same general track until dissipation. The NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one and follows very closely the HFIP Corrected Consensus (HCCA), which is in the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 15.4N 114.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 16.0N 116.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 16.6N 117.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 30/1200Z 17.3N 119.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 01/0000Z 18.0N 121.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 02/0000Z 19.7N 125.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 03/0000Z 21.5N 129.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 04/0000Z 23.0N 133.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Avila
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