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Tropical Storm Emilia Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2018-06-29 16:32:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUN 29 2018 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 291432 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062018 1500 UTC FRI JUN 29 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 115W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 120W 34 2 5( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 20N 120W 34 1 2( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 27(37) 1(38) X(38) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
Tropical Storm Emilia Forecast Advisory Number 8
2018-06-29 16:32:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUN 29 2018 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 291432 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062018 1500 UTC FRI JUN 29 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 116.3W AT 29/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 20SE 20SW 10NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 75SE 70SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 116.3W AT 29/1500Z AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 115.9W FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 16.6N 117.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 70SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 17.2N 119.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 70SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 17.8N 121.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 18.5N 123.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 20.3N 127.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 21.7N 130.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 22.7N 134.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 116.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Tropical Storm Emilia Graphics
2018-06-29 10:42:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 29 Jun 2018 08:42:28 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 29 Jun 2018 08:42:28 GMT
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Tropical Storm Emilia Forecast Discussion Number 7
2018-06-29 10:38:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Fri Jun 29 2018 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 290838 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062018 200 AM PDT Fri Jun 29 2018 Emilia has changed little in organization since the previous advisory, with the convection continuing to be displaced to the west and southwest of the low-level center by 15-20 kt of easterly vertical wind shear. The initial intensity remains 45 kt based on a blend of various satellite intensity estimates. The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 300/10. A low- to mid-level subtropical ridge to the north of Emilia should steer the cyclone generally west-northwestward through the forecast period, and the track guidance is in good agreement with this scenario. The new forecast track is an update of the previous forecast. The dynamical model guidance suggests that the shear should gradually decrease during the next 24-48 h. However, the sea surface temperatures along the forecast track decrease during this time, and it is uncertain if Emilia will be able to take advantage of the more favorable upper-level winds. The new forecast follows the trend of the previous forecast in showing slight strengthening during this time. After 48 h, the cyclone is expected to move over cool enough waters to cause steady weakening, and Emilia is currently forecast to decay to a remnant low by 96 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 16.0N 115.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 16.5N 116.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 17.2N 118.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 30/1800Z 17.8N 120.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 01/0600Z 18.4N 122.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 02/0600Z 20.0N 126.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 03/0600Z 21.5N 129.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 04/0600Z 23.0N 133.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Emilia Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2018-06-29 10:38:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUN 29 2018 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 290838 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062018 0900 UTC FRI JUN 29 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 115W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 115W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 120W 34 1 5( 6) 4(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) 20N 120W 34 X 4( 4) 10(14) 4(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 32(38) 1(39) X(39) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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