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Tropical Storm Emilia Forecast Advisory Number 4
2018-06-28 16:35:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUN 28 2018 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 281435 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062018 1500 UTC THU JUN 28 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 112.4W AT 28/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 90SE 90SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 112.4W AT 28/1500Z AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 112.0W FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 15.1N 114.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 15.9N 116.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 16.6N 118.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 17.2N 119.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 18.6N 123.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 20.5N 126.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 21.5N 131.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 112.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Storm Emilia Forecast Discussion Number 3
2018-06-28 10:55:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Thu Jun 28 2018 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 280855 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062018 300 AM MDT Thu Jun 28 2018 Convection has steadily increased and become better organized since the previous advisory, especially in the inner-core region. Satellite intensity estimates at 0600 UTC were T2.0/30 kt from both TAFB and SAB, and T2.3/33 kt from UW-CIMSS ADT. Since that time, however, convection near the low-level center has increased, resulting in a steady increase in the raw ADT estimates to T2.5/35 kt. Based on the latter data, the initial intensity is increased to 35 kt at the advisory time, making Emilia the fifth tropical storm so far this season as well as the fifth tropical storm so far during the month of June. The motion estimate is an uncertain 285/13 kt due to uncertainty in the exact location of the low-level center. Passive microwave satellite data, plus extrapolation of the previous motion, were used to locate the center. However, recent GOES-16 nighttime cloud physics satellite data suggest that the center may be developing closer to the ball of strong convection in the southern portion of the north-to-southwest elongated circulation. Having said that, the latest model guidance remains in fair agreement on Emilia moving in a general west-northwestward direction during the next 96 hours, accompanied by a gradual decrease in forward speed. Afterwards, what should be a weakened and more shallow cyclone is expected to be turned westward by a strong subtropical ridge and brisk easterly tradewind flow. The GFS and UKMET models take Emilia more northwestward into the strong subtropical ridge after 72 hours, which seems unlikely. As a result, the new track forecast is similar to the previous advisory, which lies near the southern edge of the guidance envelope and close to a blend of the ECMWF and HWRF models. Emilia's outflow is good to the west but restricted to the east due to near 20 kt of easterly vertical wind shear. The shear is forecast to decrease to around 15 kt by 48 hours and to less than 10 kt by 72 h and beyond. This should allow for some modest strengthening during the next 48 h while the cyclone remains over SSTs greater than 26 deg C. After that time, however, SSTs drop off sharply to less than 25C, and the cooler water temperatures are expected to combine with much drier mid-level to induce a steady weakening trend despite the favorable shear environment. The new NHC intensity forecast is essentially just the same as the previous advisory, and is slightly higher the consensus intensity model IVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0900Z 13.8N 111.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 28/1800Z 14.4N 113.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 29/0600Z 15.2N 115.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 29/1800Z 15.9N 117.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 30/0600Z 16.5N 118.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 01/0600Z 17.6N 121.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 02/0600Z 19.1N 125.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 03/0600Z 20.3N 129.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Emilia Graphics
2018-06-28 10:33:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 28 Jun 2018 08:33:39 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 28 Jun 2018 08:33:40 GMT
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Tropical Storm Emilia Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2018-06-28 10:32:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUN 28 2018 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 280832 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062018 0900 UTC THU JUN 28 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 115W 34 1 54(55) 6(61) 1(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) 15N 115W 50 X 10(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) 15N 115W 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 115W 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 8(23) 1(24) X(24) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 8(12) 1(13) X(13) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) 3(16) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Summary for Tropical Storm Emilia (EP1/EP062018)
2018-06-28 10:31:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO THE FIFTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON... As of 3:00 AM MDT Thu Jun 28 the center of Emilia was located near 13.8, -111.3 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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