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Tropical Storm Emilia Graphics
2018-06-29 22:33:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 29 Jun 2018 20:33:44 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 29 Jun 2018 20:33:44 GMT
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Tropical Storm Emilia Forecast Discussion Number 9
2018-06-29 22:32:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Jun 29 2018 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 292032 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062018 200 PM PDT Fri Jun 29 2018 Emilia remains a sheared tropical cyclone, as visible satellite images show that the center is located near the northeastern edge of a large mass of deep convection. The center has become a little more exposed this afternoon, but Dvorak Data T-numbers are unchanged from this morning and the initial intensity is kept at 50 kt for this advisory. Although the shear is forecast to decrease during the next 24 hours, the cyclone will be moving over gradually decreasing SSTs, so little overall change in strength is anticipated during that time. By late Saturday, Emilia is forecast to cross the 26 degree isotherm and move into a less favorable thermodynamic environment, which should initiate weakening. Dry air and cool waters should accelerate the spin down and Emilia is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low in about 72 hours, if not sooner. The initial motion estimate is 295/9 kt. Emilia should continue moving west-northwestward to the south of a low to mid-level ridge. After weakening, a more westward motion is forecast as the system comes under the influence of the low-level trade wind flow. The track guidance remains in good agreement and the updated official foreast is near the center of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 16.6N 116.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 17.0N 118.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 17.5N 120.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 01/0600Z 18.3N 122.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 01/1800Z 19.1N 123.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 02/1800Z 21.0N 127.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 03/1800Z 22.1N 131.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 04/1800Z 22.5N 136.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Emilia Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2018-06-29 22:32:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUN 29 2018 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 292032 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062018 2100 UTC FRI JUN 29 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 120W 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 23(38) X(38) X(38) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Summary for Tropical Storm Emilia (EP1/EP062018)
2018-06-29 22:31:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...EMILIA MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 2:00 PM PDT Fri Jun 29 the center of Emilia was located near 16.6, -116.9 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Emilia Public Advisory Number 9
2018-06-29 22:31:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Jun 29 2018 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 292031 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Emilia Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062018 200 PM PDT Fri Jun 29 2018 ...EMILIA MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.6N 116.9W ABOUT 630 MI...1015 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Emilia was located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 116.9 West. Emilia is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected during the next 24 hours. Emilia is forecast to move over cooler waters late Saturday and gradual weakening should begin after that time. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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