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Tropical Storm Emilia Forecast Advisory Number 9
2018-06-29 22:31:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUN 29 2018 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 292031 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062018 2100 UTC FRI JUN 29 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 116.9W AT 29/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 80SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 116.9W AT 29/2100Z AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 116.5W FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 17.0N 118.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 80SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 17.5N 120.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 80SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 18.3N 122.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 19.1N 123.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 21.0N 127.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 22.1N 131.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 22.5N 136.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 116.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Emilia Graphics
2018-06-29 16:35:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 29 Jun 2018 14:35:12 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 29 Jun 2018 14:35:12 GMT
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Tropical Storm Emilia Forecast Discussion Number 8
2018-06-29 16:33:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Jun 29 2018 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 291433 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062018 800 AM PDT Fri Jun 29 2018 Shortwave infrared imagery and an earlier 0855 UTC AMSR2 polar orbiter pass show deep convective bursts, with associated -78C cloud tops, developing near the surface center. The microwave pass also revealed improved curved banding to the south of the center. Based on these recent cloud pattern trends, it appears as though the east-northeasterly shear is beginning to diminish, as predicted by the SHIPS and LGEM intensity models. The initial intensity is increased to 50 kt on this advisory based on a blend of the Dvorak subjective T-numbers from TAFB and SAB, and an earlier SATCON analysis of 50 kt. Some further strengthening is still possible during the next 24 hours or so as the shear continues to relax. Afterward, decreasing sea surface temperatures and a stabilizing air mass should initiate a weakening trend. A majority of the large-scale models indicate that Emily will degenerate into a remnant low in 4 days, if not sooner. The NHC forecast follows suit and is based on the HCCA and FSU Superensemble intensity consensus forecasts. The initial motion is estimated to be 295/10 kt. Emily continues to be steered by a relatively narrow low to mid-level tropospheric ridge situated to the north. Global and hurricane models continue to remain in good agreement with a general west-northwestward motion until dissipation. The official forecast is slightly to the left of the previous advisory and closely follows the HCCA and TVCN consensus models through day 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 16.2N 116.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 16.6N 117.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 17.2N 119.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 01/0000Z 17.8N 121.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 01/1200Z 18.5N 123.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 02/1200Z 20.3N 127.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 03/1200Z 21.7N 130.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 04/1200Z 22.7N 134.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Summary for Tropical Storm Emilia (EP1/EP062018)
2018-06-29 16:32:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...EMILIA A LITTLE STRONGER... As of 8:00 AM PDT Fri Jun 29 the center of Emilia was located near 16.2, -116.3 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Emilia Public Advisory Number 8
2018-06-29 16:32:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Jun 29 2018 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 291432 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Emilia Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062018 800 AM PDT Fri Jun 29 2018 ...EMILIA A LITTLE STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.2N 116.3W ABOUT 620 MI...1000 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Emilia was located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 116.3 West. Emilia is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours before Emilia moves over cool waters and begins to weaken over the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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