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Hurricane Helene Public Advisory Number 14
2018-09-10 22:32:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Sep 10 2018 563 WTNT33 KNHC 102032 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Helene Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018 500 PM AST Mon Sep 10 2018 ...HURRICANE HELENE FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC IN A DAY OR TWO... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.9N 31.5W ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1620 MI...2605 KM S OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Helene was located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 31.5 West. Helene is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A continued west- northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through late Tuesday, followed by a turn toward the northwest and then toward the north-northwest on Wednesday and Thursday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible during the next 12 to 24 hours, but gradual weakening should begin thereafter. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb (28.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Hurricane Helene Forecast Advisory Number 14
2018-09-10 22:32:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 10 2018 564 WTNT23 KNHC 102032 TCMAT3 HURRICANE HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082018 2100 UTC MON SEP 10 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 31.5W AT 10/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT.......100NE 70SE 40SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 150SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 31.5W AT 10/2100Z AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 30.9W FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 15.5N 33.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 16.4N 35.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...110NE 70SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 17.5N 37.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 19.0N 38.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 23.0N 39.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 28.5N 40.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 34.0N 37.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 31.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Hurricane Helene Graphics
2018-09-10 16:38:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 10 Sep 2018 14:38:15 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 10 Sep 2018 14:38:15 GMT
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Hurricane Helene Forecast Discussion Number 13
2018-09-10 16:36:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 10 2018 274 WTNT43 KNHC 101436 TCDAT3 Hurricane Helene Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 10 2018 Helene's cloud pattern has become much better organized during the past few hours, with a clear 20 n mi wide eye seen in Meteosat infrared imagery, and a clear eye noted in a 1135 UTC AMSU overpass. A Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB were both T5.0/90 knots at 1200 UTC, and that is the initial intensity for this advisory. Helene will remain in an environment that should support some additional strengthening for the next 12 hours or so, with very low shear and SSTs of 27C or above. After that time, the SSTs cool quickly and the shear increases dramatically by 36 hours, which should induce steady weakening. Late in the period, the shear continues, and while SSTs increase the atmosphere dries out, and the intensity is held steady at day 5. The new NHC intensity forecast is above most of the guidance through 24 hours to account for the recent intensification of the storm, but then is close to or slightly above HCCA and IVCN. The initial motion estimate is 285/14. The subtropical ridge north of Helene will gradually weaken as an upper-level trough digs southward around 40W. This pattern will cause Helene to slow down and gradually recurve during the forecast period, with a faster northward motion expected at days 4 and 5 as Helene interacts with the aforementioned upper-level trough. While there is significant variability between the various global models in the exact evolution of the upper-level pattern, the track model guidance is in generally good agreement on this evolution, although the UKMET, its ensemble mean and the GEFS mean are notable outliers to the right. The new NHC track was not changed much from the previous one and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope and is close to HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 14.6N 30.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 15.2N 32.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 15.9N 34.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 12/0000Z 16.8N 36.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 12/1200Z 18.0N 37.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 13/1200Z 21.5N 39.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 14/1200Z 27.0N 40.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 15/1200Z 32.5N 40.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Hurricane Helene Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2018-09-10 16:35:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 10 2018 815 FONT13 KNHC 101435 PWSAT3 HURRICANE HELENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082018 1500 UTC MON SEP 10 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 30.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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