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Summary for Hurricane Dorian (AT5/AL052019)
2019-08-30 10:54:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DORIAN FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TODAY... ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... As of 5:00 AM AST Fri Aug 30 the center of Dorian was located near 23.8, -69.1 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 979 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.
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Hurricane Dorian Wind Speed Probabilities Number 24
2019-08-30 10:54:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 30 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 300854 PWSAT5 HURRICANE DORIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 0900 UTC FRI AUG 30 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 12(16) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 22(34) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 19(26) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) WAYCROSS GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 11(19) 27(46) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 25(38) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 16(21) 29(50) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 23(34) 27(61) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 17(26) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 24(32) 30(62) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 22(29) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 30(46) 26(72) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 21(39) ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 13(19) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 41(45) 28(73) 13(86) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 19(32) 18(50) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 12(28) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 25(27) 32(59) 19(78) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 20(26) 18(44) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 11(23) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 55(60) 25(85) 8(93) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 29(54) 14(68) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 22(31) 13(44) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 62(68) 22(90) 5(95) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 32(32) 33(65) 9(74) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 30(43) 10(53) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 58(63) 26(89) 5(94) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 34(59) 10(69) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 25(36) 8(44) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 32(35) 37(72) 10(82) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 29(40) 11(51) MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20(23) 7(30) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 25(28) 36(64) 11(75) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 26(34) 9(43) HOMESTEAD ARB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 6(24) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 30(50) 9(59) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) 6(25) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 4(13) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 23(35) 10(45) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 7(18) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 39(52) 20(72) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) 16(37) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 10(18) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 39(52) 23(75) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) 20(41) FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 13(20) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 33(42) 27(69) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 22(36) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 12(18) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 28(36) 31(67) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 26(36) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 19(26) 33(59) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 23(28) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 20(26) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 21(29) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 23(30) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 25(36) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 18(22) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) DESTIN EXEC AP 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 20(24) 66(90) 7(97) 1(98) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 63(66) 14(80) 2(82) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 42(42) 17(59) 3(62) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 29(34) 41(75) 5(80) 1(81) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 32(38) 5(43) 1(44) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 5(24) 1(25) ANDROS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 28(40) 9(49) 2(51) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 4(14) 2(16) ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) GREAT EXUMA 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 8(13) 11(24) 4(28) 1(29) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN SALVADOR 34 1 3( 4) 17(21) 11(32) 5(37) 3(40) X(40) SAN SALVADOR 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MAYAGUANA 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GRAND TURK 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 3(13) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 2(10) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Hurricane Dorian Public Advisory Number 24
2019-08-30 10:54:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Aug 30 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 300854 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 500 AM AST Fri Aug 30 2019 ...DORIAN FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TODAY... ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.8N 69.1W ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM ENE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ABOUT 530 MI...850 KM E OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Watch for the northwestern Bahamas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Northwestern Bahamas A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Interests in southern and central Florida should monitor the progress of Dorian. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 23.8 North, longitude 69.1 West. Dorian is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through the day. A slower west-northwestward to westward motion is forecast to begin tonight and continue through the weekend. On this track, Dorian should move over the Atlantic well east of the southeastern and central Bahamas today, approach the northwestern Bahamas Saturday, and move near or over portions of the northwestern Bahamas on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Dorian is expected to become a major hurricane later today. Dorian is likely to remain an extremely dangerous hurricane while it moves near the northwestern Bahamas and approaches the Florida peninsula through the weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The minimum central pressure based on data from an earlier Hurricane Hunter mission is 979 mb (28.91 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Saturday night or Sunday morning. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds in the northwestern Bahamas. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations this weekend into the middle of next week: The northwestern Bahamas and coastal sections of the Southeast United States...6 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches. The central Bahamas...1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. SURF: Swells are likely to begin affecting the east-facing shores of the Bahamas and the southeastern United States coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane Dorian Forecast Advisory Number 24
2019-08-30 10:53:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 30 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 300853 TCMAT5 HURRICANE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 0900 UTC FRI AUG 30 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 69.1W AT 30/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 69.1W AT 30/0900Z AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 68.8W FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 24.8N 70.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 25.6N 72.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 26.1N 73.8W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 26.4N 75.5W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 26.7N 78.3W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 26.9N 80.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 28.1N 81.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.8N 69.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 30/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Hurricane Dorian Forecast Discussion Number 23
2019-08-30 04:56:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Aug 29 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 300256 TCDAT5 Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 1100 PM AST Thu Aug 29 2019 The NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft have been tag-teaming the reconaissance of Dorian tonight, providing useful information about what has changed during the past several hours. They found the pressure has dropped to about 977 mb, with recent SFMR data of about 90 kt (also supported by flight-level winds). These data are also consistent with satellite imagery that show Dorian with a larger, deeper central dense overcast than this afternoon. Thus the wind speed is raised to 90 kt on this advisory. The initial motion is about the same as before, 325/10 kt. Dorian is expected to gradually turn to the west-northwest on Saturday, and westward on Sunday due to a building ridge over the southwestern Atlantic. While the model guidance generally shows this scenario in a broad sense, there are substantial timing differences among the guidance. The source of the uncertainty can be attributed to challenges in forecasting the strength and orientation of the mid-level ridge over the southeastern United States in a few days, along with exactly where and how large Dorian is by then. As you can imagine, with so many complex variables in play, it is no wonder the models have been having a difficult time nailing down the path of the hurricane. There's been a notable trend on this model cycle toward a slower, more westward track beyond 36 hours, which can be seen most strongly in the GFS-based guidance. The track forecast is shifted southward beyond 36 hours, and is about 30 n mi south of the previous one at 96 h. We will see if this southward trend in the models continues after the dropsonde data collected by the G-IV gets incorporated into the 00Z models. Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track, as typical forecast errors at days 4 and 5 are around 155 and 205 miles, respectively. There is still substantial middle- and upper-level dry air on the south side of the hurricane, as shown by tonight's G-IV mission, which has been allowing only slow strengthening during the day. As Dorian turns west-northwestward, however, shear should drop somewhat due to it moving on the northeast side of an upper-level low near the Florida Straits, and the winds aloft will no longer be pointed toward the core, which will help decrease dry air entrainment. All these changes should promote intensification while Dorian moves over the 29C waters east of Florida, so the intensity forecast is raised from the previous one, consistent with the corrected-consensus guidance. Unfortunately, I don't see any large-scale factors that would prevent Dorian from becoming an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane during the next few days. Key Messages: 1. The risk of life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds this weekend continues to increase in the northwestern Bahamas, and hurricane watches could be issued on Friday. Residents should have their hurricane plan in place and listen to advice given by local emergency officials. 2. There is an increasing likelihood of life-threatening storm surge along portions of the Florida east coast late this weekend or early next week, although it is too soon to determine where the highest storm surge will occur. Residents should have their hurricane plan in place, know if they are in a hurricane evacuation zone, and listen to advice given by local emergency officials. 3. The risk of devastating hurricane-force winds along the Florida east coast and peninsula late this weekend and early next week continues to increase, although it is too soon to determine where the strongest winds will occur. 4. Regardless of the exact track of Dorian, heavy rains are expected to occur over portions of the Bahamas, Florida, and elsewhere in the southeastern United States this weekend and into the middle of next week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 23.3N 68.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 24.3N 69.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 31/0000Z 25.4N 71.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 31/1200Z 26.0N 73.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 01/0000Z 26.3N 74.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 02/0000Z 26.8N 77.9W 120 KT 140 MPH 96H 03/0000Z 27.0N 79.8W 120 KT 140 MPH 120H 04/0000Z 27.5N 81.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Blake
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