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Tag: dorian

Hurricane Dorian Forecast Advisory Number 22

2019-08-29 22:44:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 29 2019 927 WTNT25 KNHC 292044 TCMAT5 HURRICANE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 2100 UTC THU AUG 29 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 67.7W AT 29/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 45SE 15SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 67.7W AT 29/2100Z AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 67.4W FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 23.8N 68.7W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 25.2N 70.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 26.0N 72.3W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 26.5N 74.2W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 27.0N 77.7W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 27.5N 80.0W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 28.1N 81.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.5N 67.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Tags: number advisory forecast hurricane

Hurricane Dorian Graphics

2019-08-29 16:47:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 29 Aug 2019 14:47:46 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 29 Aug 2019 15:24:41 GMT

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Hurricane Dorian Forecast Discussion Number 21

2019-08-29 16:47:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Aug 29 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 291447 TCDAT5 Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 1100 AM AST Thu Aug 29 2019 The small eye of Dorian has appeared intermittently in infrared satellite imagery this morning. Recent reports from a NOAA P-3 aircraft indicate that there is now a double eyewall structure, with a small inner eye only 5 n mi in diameter and a larger 25-n mi diameter outer eyewall. The minimum pressure has fallen to around 986 mb. The concentric eyewall structure is likely why the aircraft has not found any stronger winds yet in the storm, despite the decrease in central pressure. The initial intensity remains 75 kt for this advisory. Aircraft and satellite fixes show that Dorian is moving northwestward, or 325 degrees at 11 kt. Dorian is forecast to continue moving northwestward during the next 24-36 hours between an upper-level low that will be dropping southwestward across the Florida Straits and a mid-level ridge to the northeast of the hurricane. After that time, a ridge is forecast to build to the north of Dorian, which should cause the track to bend back toward the west-northwest. The track guidance becomes more divergent beyond 72 hours, primarily due to model differences in the strength of the ridge and whether a weakness develops in the ridge late in the period. The new NHC track forecast is virtually unchanged from the previous advisory, and lies very close to the multi-model consensus. It should be noted that the ECMWF, UKMET, and HFIP corrected consensus models remain south of the official forecast. The spread of the deterministic models and the various ensemble guidance is still considerable at days 4 and 5, and it is too soon to specify where along the Florida east coast the greatest impacts could occur. Environmental conditions consisting of warm waters and low vertical wind shear along the path of the hurricane should allow for at least steady intensification during the next 2 to 3 days. With the small inner core and favorable conditions, rapid strengthening also remains a possibility, although not likely in the very short term given the concentric eyewall structure. The updated NHC intensity forecast calls for Dorian to become a major hurricane on Friday, and shows a slightly higher peak intensity than the previous forecast. The official forecast is at the upper end of the guidance, in best agreement with the HCCA and HWRF models. Key Messages: 1. The risk of life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds this weekend continues to increase in the northwestern Bahamas, and hurricane watches could be issued there tonight or Friday. Residents should have their hurricane plan in place and listen to advice given by local emergency officials. 2. There is an increasing likelihood of life-threatening storm surge along portions of the Florida east coast late this weekend or early next week, although it is too soon to determine where the highest storm surge will occur. Residents should have their hurricane plan in place, know if they are in a hurricane evacuation zone, and listen to advice given by local emergency officials. 3. The risk of devastating hurricane-force winds along the Florida east coast and peninsula late this weekend and early next week continues to increase, although it is too soon to determine where the strongest winds will occur. 4. Regardless of the exact track of Dorian, heavy rains are expected to occur over portions of the Bahamas, Florida, and elsewhere in the southeastern United States this weekend and into the middle of next week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 21.4N 67.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 22.9N 68.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 24.5N 69.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 31/0000Z 25.6N 71.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 31/1200Z 26.3N 73.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 01/1200Z 27.0N 76.9W 115 KT 130 MPH 96H 02/1200Z 27.5N 79.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 120H 03/1200Z 28.1N 81.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Brown

Tags: number discussion forecast hurricane

Hurricane Dorian Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21

2019-08-29 16:46:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 29 2019 529 FONT15 KNHC 291446 PWSAT5 HURRICANE DORIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 1500 UTC THU AUG 29 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 18(34) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 16(25) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) WAYCROSS GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 23(27) 20(47) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 21(40) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 28(51) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 15(20) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 37(42) 24(66) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 17(33) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 9(15) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 34(36) 30(66) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 22(33) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 45(51) 24(75) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 22(45) ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 14(25) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 53(75) 14(89) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 37(40) 18(58) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 15(36) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 53(63) 18(81) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 31(33) 20(53) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 15(30) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) 52(82) 9(91) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 47(52) 15(67) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 30(32) 14(46) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 31(31) 51(82) 7(89) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 42(48) 13(61) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 27(29) 11(40) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 47(73) 8(81) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 33(37) 10(47) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 7(27) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 38(47) 15(62) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 9(32) MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 6(17) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 34(42) 12(54) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 8(25) HOMESTEAD ARB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 5(14) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 23(29) 11(40) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) 13(34) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 32(35) 23(58) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 15(26) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 35(38) 27(65) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 19(31) FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 31(33) 32(65) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 21(30) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 32(34) 32(66) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 24(35) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 14(19) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 27(28) 32(60) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 19(26) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 18(25) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 22(29) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 24(32) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 27(36) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 19(24) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) DESTIN EXEC AP 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 59(62) 28(90) 3(93) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 39(65) 4(69) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 32(44) 4(48) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 46(51) 13(64) 2(66) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 10(28) 1(29) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) 1(14) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20(24) 11(35) 3(38) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 13(20) 5(25) 1(26) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAN SALVADOR 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 15(20) 14(34) 3(37) X(37) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MAYAGUANA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 3(10) 1(11) X(11) GRAND TURK 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Summary for Hurricane Dorian (AT5/AL052019)

2019-08-29 16:46:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...DORIAN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... As of 11:00 AM AST Thu Aug 29 the center of Dorian was located near 21.4, -67.2 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 986 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

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