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Hurricane Dorian Forecast Advisory Number 26

2019-08-30 22:49:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 30 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 302049 TCMAT5 HURRICANE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 2100 UTC FRI AUG 30 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS EXCLUDING ANDROS ISLAND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ANDROS ISLAND A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 70.7W AT 30/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 60SW 105NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 70.7W AT 30/2100Z AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 70.3W FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 25.6N 72.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 26.2N 73.8W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 26.5N 75.4W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 26.8N 76.9W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 27.0N 78.8W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 27.5N 80.4W...NEAR FL EAST COAST MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 30.0N 81.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.0N 70.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 31/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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Hurricane Dorian Graphics

2019-08-30 19:56:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 30 Aug 2019 17:56:41 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 30 Aug 2019 15:24:43 GMT

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Summary for Hurricane Dorian (AT5/AL052019)

2019-08-30 19:54:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE DORIAN POSES A SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO FLORIDA AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... ...HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE FINDS DORIAN IS NOW A MAJOR HURRICANE... As of 2:00 PM AST Fri Aug 30 the center of Dorian was located near 24.8, -70.3 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 970 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.

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Hurricane Dorian Public Advisory Number 25A

2019-08-30 19:54:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 200 PM AST Fri Aug 30 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 301754 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 25A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 200 PM AST Fri Aug 30 2019 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE DORIAN POSES A SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO FLORIDA AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... ...HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE FINDS DORIAN IS NOW A MAJOR HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.8N 70.3W ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM E OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ABOUT 625 MI...1005 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Northwestern Bahamas A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Interests in southern and central Florida should monitor the progress of Dorian. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 24.8 North, longitude 70.3 West. Dorian is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A slower west- northwestward to westward motion should begin tonight and continue into early next week. On this track, the core of Dorian should move over the Atlantic well north of the southeastern and central Bahamas today and tomorrow, be near or over the northwestern Bahamas on Sunday, and be near the Florida peninsula late Monday. Data from a reconnaissance plane indicate that with maximum sustained winds have increased to near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Dorian is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Dorian is anticipated to remain an extremely dangerous major hurricane while it moves near the northwestern Bahamas and approaches the Florida peninsula into early next week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The minimum central pressure recently estimated from an Air Force reconnaissance plane was 970 mb (28.64 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the northwestern Bahamas by Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Saturday night or Sunday morning. STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds in the northwestern Bahamas. Near the coast,the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations this weekend into the middle of next week: Northwestern Bahamas and coastal sections of the Southeast United States...6 to 12 inches, isolated 18 inches. Central Bahamas...1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. SURF: Swells are likely to begin affecting the east-facing shores of the Bahamas, the Florida east coast, and the southeastern United States coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila

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