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Hurricane Dorian Graphics
2019-08-30 04:55:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 30 Aug 2019 02:55:21 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 30 Aug 2019 03:24:35 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane Dorian (AT5/AL052019)
2019-08-30 04:54:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FIND A STRENGTHENING DORIAN... As of 11:00 PM AST Thu Aug 29 the center of Dorian was located near 23.3, -68.4 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 977 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.
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Hurricane Dorian Public Advisory Number 23
2019-08-30 04:54:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Aug 29 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 300254 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 1100 PM AST Thu Aug 29 2019 ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FIND A STRENGTHENING DORIAN... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.3N 68.4W ABOUT 295 MI...470 KM ENE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ABOUT 580 MI...930 KM E OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the northwestern and central Bahamas should monitor the progress of Dorian. Watches may be required for portions of this area on Friday. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 23.3 North, longitude 68.4 West. Dorian is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Friday. A west-northwestward to westward motion is forecast to begin by Friday night and continue into the weekend. On this track, Dorian should move over the Atlantic well east of the southeastern and central Bahamas tonight and on Friday, approach the northwestern Bahamas Saturday, and move near or over portions of the northwest Bahamas on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Dorian is expected to become a major hurricane on Friday and remain an extremely dangerous hurricane through the weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The latest minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter data is 977 mb (28.85 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations this weekend into early next week: The central Bahamas...1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches. The northwestern Bahamas...3 to 5 inches, isolated 7 inches. Coastal sections of the Southeast United States...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. SURF: Swells are likely to begin affecting the east-facing shores of the Bahamas and the southeastern United States coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane Dorian Wind Speed Probabilities Number 23
2019-08-30 04:54:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 30 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 300254 PWSAT5 HURRICANE DORIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 0300 UTC FRI AUG 30 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 8(12) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 13(25) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 12(19) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) WAYCROSS GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 14(20) 17(37) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 16(30) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) 21(41) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 25(35) 20(55) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 12(23) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 25(32) 24(56) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 15(24) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 34(46) 22(68) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 18(35) ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 12(19) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 38(39) 35(74) 11(85) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 26(34) 15(49) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 11(29) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 36(58) 17(75) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 24(28) 15(43) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 10(23) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 49(51) 33(84) 8(92) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 36(53) 13(66) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 26(32) 13(45) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 53(57) 30(87) 7(94) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 40(61) 12(73) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 30(38) 12(50) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 48(51) 32(83) 7(90) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 33(50) 13(63) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 24(30) 11(41) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) 38(62) 14(76) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 27(33) 13(46) MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 9(27) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 35(54) 15(69) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 22(27) 11(38) HOMESTEAD ARB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 8(21) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 26(41) 13(54) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 9(24) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 22(30) 14(44) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 8(17) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 36(44) 23(67) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 17(33) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 38(46) 24(70) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 21(38) FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 13(19) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 30(37) 28(65) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 21(33) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 11(17) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 28(34) 27(61) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 19(29) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20(24) 26(50) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 15(21) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 17(24) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 19(28) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) DESTIN EXEC AP 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 75(85) 10(95) 2(97) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 55(56) 20(76) 3(79) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 32(32) 23(55) 4(59) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) 50(69) 6(75) 3(78) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 31(33) 7(40) 2(42) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 5(22) 2(24) ANDROS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 27(35) 10(45) 4(49) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 4(13) 2(15) ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) GREAT EXUMA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) 12(23) 5(28) 1(29) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAN SALVADOR 34 X 2( 2) 11(13) 18(31) 8(39) 2(41) 1(42) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MAYAGUANA 34 1 1( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) 1(10) GRAND TURK 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 8(15) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) HAVANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Hurricane Dorian Forecast Advisory Number 23
2019-08-30 04:53:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 30 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 300253 TCMAT5 HURRICANE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 0300 UTC FRI AUG 30 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA ON FRIDAY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 68.4W AT 30/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 30SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 75SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 68.4W AT 30/0300Z AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 68.0W FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 24.3N 69.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 25.4N 71.1W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 26.0N 73.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 26.3N 74.7W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 26.8N 77.9W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 27.0N 79.8W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 27.5N 81.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.3N 68.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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