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Hurricane Dorian Graphics
2019-08-30 22:51:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 30 Aug 2019 20:51:52 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 30 Aug 2019 20:51:52 GMT
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Hurricane Dorian Forecast Discussion Number 26
2019-08-30 22:50:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 302050 TCDAT5 Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 500 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2019 High resolution satellite images show that Dorian's cloud pattern has become much better organized, with a distinct eye surrounded by a ring of very deep convection and fair upper-level outflow. Satellite intensity estimates, both objectivs from CIMMS and subjective from TAFB and SAB, are in good agreement with the 100-kt winds recently measured by a reconnaissance aircraft. This is the intensity assigned to Dorian in this advisory. Since the upper-level environment is already becoming more favorable for intensification and Dorian will be over high sea surface temperatures, the NHC forecast calls for additional intensification. Dorian is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane as it moves through the northwestern Bahamas and near the east coast of the Florida peninsula in about 2 to 4 days. The ridge over the western Atlantic appears to be already building to the north of Dorian and is beginning to force the hurricane on a more west-northwest track or 300 degrees at 9 kt. The ridge is forecast to build even more and steer Dorian on a westward track for the next 3 to 4 days. However, the steering currents will then weaken, and this should result in a decrease in the hurricane's forward speed. Given the collapse of the steering currents, the track forecast by the end of the forecast period is highly uncertain, and any small deviation in the track could bring the core of the powerful hurricane well inland over the Florida, keep it near the coast, or offshore. The models have not been very consistent from run to run in terms of the timing of the northward turn, but there are more models now indicating that the turn could occur near the east coast of Florida instead of well inland. Given this latest change, the NHC forecast has been shifted just a little to the right at this time, but users should be prepared for additional adjustements to the left or right depending on future model trends. Based on the new forecast, a hurricane warning has been issued for poertions of the northwest Bahamas. However, given the slower forecast speed of Dorian, it is too soon to issue and watches for the Florida coast at this time. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening storm surge and devastating hurricane-force winds are likely in portions of the northwestern Bahamas, where a hurricane warning is in effect. Residents should execute their hurricane plan and listen to advice given by local emergency officials. 2. Life-threatening storm surge and devastating hurricane-force winds are likely along portions of the Florida east coast by early next week, but since Dorian is forecast to slow down and turn northward near the coast, it is too soon to determine when or where the highest surge and winds will occur. Residents should have their hurricane plan in place, know if they are in a hurricane evacuation zone, and listen to advice given by local emergency officials. 3. A prolonged period of storm surge, high winds and rainfall is possible in portions of Florida into next week, including the possibility of hurricane-force winds over inland portions of the Florida peninsula. 4. Heavy rains, capable of life-threatening flash floods, are expected over portions of the Bahamas and coastal sections of the southeastern United States this weekend through much of next week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 25.0N 70.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 31/0600Z 25.6N 72.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 31/1800Z 26.2N 73.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 01/0600Z 26.5N 75.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 01/1800Z 26.8N 76.9W 120 KT 140 MPH 72H 02/1800Z 27.0N 78.8W 120 KT 140 MPH 96H 03/1800Z 27.5N 80.4W 120 KT 140 MPH...NEAR FL EAST COAST 120H 04/1800Z 30.0N 81.5W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Avila
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Summary for Hurricane Dorian (AT5/AL052019)
2019-08-30 22:49:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE DORIAN HEADING FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... As of 5:00 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 the center of Dorian was located near 25.0, -70.7 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 970 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.
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Hurricane Dorian Wind Speed Probabilities Number 26
2019-08-30 22:49:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 30 2019 645 FONT15 KNHC 302049 PWSAT5 HURRICANE DORIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 2100 UTC FRI AUG 30 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) FLORENCE SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) FLORENCE SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) COLUMBIA SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GEORGETOWN SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 25(29) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 30(37) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 24(27) AUGUSTA GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) AUGUSTA GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 35(45) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 20(26) 42(68) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 29(35) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) 40(57) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 27(30) WAYCROSS GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 24(38) 39(77) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 34(44) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 22(25) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 23(30) 40(70) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 32(40) JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 19(22) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 30(39) 37(76) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 36(49) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 23(31) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 18(22) 34(56) 26(82) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 22(26) 29(55) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 22(34) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 38(54) 28(82) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 23(25) 32(57) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 26(39) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 25(29) 38(67) 20(87) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 33(40) 25(65) ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) 23(44) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 49(62) 24(86) 9(95) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) 29(54) 16(70) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 21(31) 17(48) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 38(44) 33(77) 12(89) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 32(48) 18(66) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 20(26) 17(43) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) 57(78) 15(93) 4(97) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 38(40) 29(69) 9(78) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 27(47) 10(57) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 22(26) 55(81) 14(95) 2(97) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 45(48) 26(74) 3(77) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 28(50) 5(55) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) 53(74) 16(90) 3(93) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 34(36) 26(62) 4(66) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 23(39) 4(43) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 41(46) 29(75) 5(80) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 25(42) 4(46) MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 18(25) 4(29) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 32(37) 29(66) 4(70) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 24(36) 3(39) HOMESTEAD ARB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) 2(20) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 23(27) 23(50) 4(54) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) 2(19) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 21(37) 4(41) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 1(12) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 18(21) 41(62) 9(71) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 26(30) 7(37) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 6(21) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 19(22) 42(64) 11(75) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 31(35) 10(45) FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 8(26) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 42(58) 16(74) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 26(28) 15(43) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 10(23) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 41(56) 22(78) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 27(29) 23(52) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 15(30) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 34(45) 33(78) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 31(48) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 19(28) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 32(46) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 34(50) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 29(43) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 26(43) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 24(31) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) DESTIN EXEC AP 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) COLUMBUS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) COLUMBUS GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X 2( 2) 12(14) 56(70) 26(96) 2(98) X(98) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 28(29) 50(79) 7(86) X(86) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 45(54) 11(65) 1(66) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X 3( 3) 20(23) 33(56) 17(73) 4(77) X(77) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 14(30) 5(35) 1(36) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 3(14) 1(15) ANDROS 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 12(19) 18(37) 8(45) X(45) ANDROS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 6( 8) 2(10) 1(11) ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) GREAT EXUMA 34 1 2( 3) 5( 8) 4(12) 6(18) 4(22) X(22) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) SAN SALVADOR 34 1 8( 9) 10(19) 3(22) 5(27) 1(28) X(28) SAN SALVADOR 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MAYAGUANA 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Hurricane Dorian Public Advisory Number 26
2019-08-30 22:49:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 302049 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 500 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2019 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE DORIAN HEADING FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.0N 70.7W ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM E OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ABOUT 595 MI...960 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Warning for the northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Andros Island A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Interests in southern and central Florida should monitor the progress of Dorian. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the well-defined eye of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 25.0 North, longitude 70.7 West. Dorian is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A slower west-northwestward to westward motion should begin tonight and continue into early next week. On this track, the core of Dorian should move over the Atlantic well north of the southeastern and central Bahamas tonight and tomorrow, be near or over the northwestern Bahamas on Sunday, and be near the Florida east coast late Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Dorian is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Dorian is anticipated to remain an extremely dangerous hurricane while it moves near the northwestern Bahamas and approaches the Florida peninsula into early next week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area in the northwestern Bahamas by Sunday, with tropical storm winds beginning by Saturday night. STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds in the northwestern Bahamas. Near the coast,the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations this weekend into the middle of next week: Northwestern Bahamas...10 to 15 inches, isolated 20 inches. Coastal sections of the southeast United States...6 to 12 inches, isolated 18 inches. Central Bahamas...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. SURF: Swells are likely to begin affecting the east-facing shores of the Bahamas, the Florida east coast, and the southeastern United States coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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