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Hurricane Dorian Public Advisory Number 36
2019-09-02 10:51:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Mon Sep 02 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 020850 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 36 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 500 AM EDT Mon Sep 02 2019 ...CATEGORY 5 DORIAN CONTINUES TO HAVE DEVASTATING IMPACTS ON GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.6N 78.2W ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM E OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...916 MB...27.05 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Bahamas has discontinued the Hurricane Warning for New Providence and Eleuthera, and the Hurricane Watch for Andros Island, in the northwestern Bahamas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Lantana to the Volusia/Brevard County Line A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * North of Deerfield Beach to south of Lantana * Volusia/Brevard County Line to the Mouth of the St. Mary's River A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Grand Bahama and the Abacos Islands in the northwestern Bahamas * Jupiter Inlet to the Volusia/Brevard County Line A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet * Volusia/Brevard County Line to the Mouth of the St. Mary's River A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Golden Beach to Deerfield Beach * Lake Okeechobee A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the east coast of Florida should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian, as additional watches or warnings may be required later today. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located by NOAA Doppler radar near latitude 26.6 North, longitude 78.2 West. Dorian is moving toward the west near 1 mph (2 km/h). A slow westward to west-northwestward motion is forecast during the next day or so, followed by a gradual turn toward the northwest and north. On this track, the core of extremely dangerous Hurricane Dorian will continue to pound Grand Bahama Island through much of today and tonight. The hurricane will move dangerously close to the Florida east coast tonight through Wednesday evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 165 mph (270 km/h) with higher gusts. Dorian is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Although gradual weakening is forecast, Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 916 mb (27.05 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Catastrophic hurricane conditions continue on Grand Bahama Island. Do not venture out into the eye, as winds will suddenly increase after the eye passes. Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area in Florida by late tonight or Tuesday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area on Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm warning area today and Tuesday, and are possible in the Tropical Storm watch area by tonight. STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 18 to 23 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds on Grand Bahama Island. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Water levels should very slowly subside on the Abaco Islands during the day. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Lantana to the Mouth of the St. Mary's River...4 to 7 ft North of Deerfield Beach to Lantana...2 to 4 ft The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close the center of Dorian comes to the Florida east coast, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through late this week: Northwestern Bahamas...12 to 24 inches, isolated 30 inches. Coastal Carolinas...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. Central Bahamas and the Atlantic Coast from the Florida peninsula through Georgia...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. SURF: Large swells are affecting east-facing shores of the Bahamas and the Florida east coast, and will spread northward along the southeastern United States coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A brief tornado is possible this afternoon into tonight along the immediate coast of east-central Florida. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Dorian Forecast Advisory Number 36
2019-09-02 10:50:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 02 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 020850 TCMAT5 HURRICANE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 0900 UTC MON SEP 02 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR NEW PROVIDENCE AND ELEUTHERA...AND THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR ANDROS ISLAND...IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LANTANA TO THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH TO SOUTH OF LANTANA * VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO THE MOUTH OF THE ST. MARY'S RIVER A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GRAND BAHAMA AND ABACOS ISLANDS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. * JUPITER INLET TO THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH TO JUPITER INLET * VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO THE MOUTH OF THE ST. MARY'S RIVER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH TO JUPITER INLET A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH TO DEERFIELD BEACH * LAKE OKEECHOBEE A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN...AS ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 78.2W AT 02/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 1 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 916 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 145 KT WITH GUSTS TO 175 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT.......120NE 110SE 80SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 90SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 78.2W AT 02/0900Z AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 78.1W FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 26.7N 78.7W MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 26.9N 79.0W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 27.6N 79.5W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 28.7N 80.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 31.3N 79.8W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 34.5N 76.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 38.5N 70.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.6N 78.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 02/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Summary for Hurricane Dorian (AT5/AL052019)
2019-09-02 09:56:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CATEGORY 5 DORIAN CONTINUES TO HAVE DEVASTATING IMPACTS ON GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND... As of 5:00 AM EDT Mon Sep 2 the center of Dorian was located near 26.6, -78.2 with movement W at 1 mph. The minimum central pressure was 916 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 165 mph.
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Hurricane Dorian Update Statement
2019-09-02 08:56:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon Sep 02 2019 007 WTNT65 KNHC 020656 TCUAT5 Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 300 AM EDT Mon Sep 02 2019 ...DORIAN'S EYE CRAWLING WESTWARD OVER GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND... This is a life-threatening situation. Residents on Grand Bahama Island should not leave their shelter when the eye passes over, as winds will rapidly increase on the other side of the eye. Residents in the Abacos should continue to stay in their shelter until conditions subside later today. Hazards: - Wind Gusts to 200 mph - Storm Surge 18 to 23 feet above normal tide levels with higher destructive waves These hazards will continue over Grand Bahama Island during most of the day, causing extreme destruction on the island. SUMMARY OF 300 AM EDT...0700 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.6N 78.1W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM E OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...170 MPH...275 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...916 MB...27.05 INCHES $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Hurricane Dorian (AT5/AL052019)
2019-09-02 08:56:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DORIAN'S EYE CRAWLING WESTWARD OVER GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND... As of 3:00 AM EDT Mon Sep 2 the center of Dorian was located near 26.6, -78.1 with movement W at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 916 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 170 mph.
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