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Hurricane Dorian Forecast Advisory Number 35
2019-09-02 04:56:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 02 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 020256 TCMAT5 HURRICANE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 0300 UTC MON SEP 02 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD FROM FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE TO THE MOUTH OF THE ST. MARY'S RIVER. A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD FROM FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE TO THE MOUTH OF THE ST. MARY'S RIVER. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LANTANA TO THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH TO LANTANA * VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO THE MOUTH OF THE ST. MARY'S RIVER A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS EXCLUDING ANDROS ISLAND * JUPITER INLET TO THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ANDROS ISLAND * NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH TO JUPITER INLET * VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO THE MOUTH OF THE ST. MARY'S RIVER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH TO JUPITER INLET A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH TO DEERFIELD BEACH * LAKE OKEECHOBEE A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN...AS ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 77.9W AT 02/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 914 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 155 KT WITH GUSTS TO 190 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT.......120NE 110SE 100SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 60SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 77.9W AT 02/0300Z AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 77.7W FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 26.8N 78.5W MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 26.9N 79.0W MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 27.3N 79.3W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 28.2N 79.8W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 30.6N 80.2W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 33.5N 77.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 37.5N 71.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.6N 77.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 02/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Summary for Hurricane Dorian (AT5/AL052019)
2019-09-02 03:53:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 DORIAN MAKES LANDFALL ON THE EASTERN END OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND... As of 11:00 PM EDT Sun Sep 1 the center of Dorian was located near 26.6, -77.9 with movement W at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 914 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 180 mph.
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Hurricane Dorian Update Statement
2019-09-02 02:53:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 PM EDT Sun Sep 01 2019 199 WTNT65 KNHC 020053 TCUAT5 Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 900 PM EDT Sun Sep 01 2019 ...CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 DORIAN CONTINUES TO BATTER THE ABACOS... ...EYE NEARING EASTERN END OF GRAND BAHAMA... This is a life-threatening situation. Residents in the Abacos should continue to stay in their shelter as the northern eyewall of Dorian remains over the area. Residents in eastern Grand Bahama are experiencing the western eyewall. Do not leave your shelter as the eye passes over, as winds will rapidly increase on the other side of the eye. Hazards: - Wind Gusts over 220 mph - Storm Surge 18 to 23 feet above normal tide levels with higher destructive waves These hazards will cause extreme destruction in the affected areas and will continue for several hours. SUMMARY OF 900 PM EDT...0100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.6N 77.7W ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM E OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...915 MB...27.02 INCHES $$ Forecaster Latto
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Summary for Hurricane Dorian (AT5/AL052019)
2019-09-02 02:53:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 DORIAN CONTINUES TO BATTER THE ABACOS... ...EYE NEARING EASTERN END OF GRAND BAHAMA... As of 9:00 PM EDT Sun Sep 1 the center of Dorian was located near 26.6, -77.7 with movement W at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 915 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 185 mph.
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Hurricane Dorian Public Advisory Number 34A
2019-09-02 01:46:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM EDT Sun Sep 01 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 012346 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 34A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 800 PM EDT Sun Sep 01 2019 ...CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 DORIAN POUNDING GREAT ABACO AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.6N 77.6W ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM E OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...915 MB...27.02 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Lantana to the Volusia/Brevard County Line A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * North of Deerfield Beach to Lantana * Volusia/Brevard County Line to the Flagler/Volusia County Line A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island * Jupiter Inlet to the Volusia/Brevard County Line A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Andros Island * North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet * Volusia/Brevard County Line to the Flagler/Volusia County Line A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Golden Beach to Deerfield Beach * Lake Okeechobee A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the east coast of Florida should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian, as additional watches or warnings may be required later today. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the distinct eye of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 26.6 North, longitude 77.6 West. Dorian is moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slower westward to west-northwestward motion is forecast during the next day or two, followed by a gradual turn toward the northwest. On this track, the core of extremely dangerous Hurricane Dorian will continue to pound Great Abaco and Grand Bahama islands tonight and Monday. The hurricane will move dangerously close to the Florida east coast late Monday through Tuesday night. Maximum sustained winds remain near 185 mph (295 km/h) with higher gusts. Dorian is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely, and Dorian is expected to remain a catastrophic hurricane during the next few days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The minimum central pressure recently measured by an Air Force reconnaissance plane was 915 mb (27.02 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Catastrophic hurricane conditions continue in the Abacos Islands and are beginning to spread across Grand Bahama Island. Do not venture out into the eye, as winds will suddenly increase as the eye passes. Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area in Florida by late Monday or Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area on Monday and Tuesday and are possible in the tropical storm watch area by Monday night. STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 18 to 23 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds on the Abaco Islands and Grand Bahama Island. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Flagler/Volusia County Line to Lantana FL...4 to 7 ft North of Deerfield Beach to Lantana FL...2 to 4 ft The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close the center of Dorian comes to the Florida east coast, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through late this week: Northwestern Bahamas...12 to 24 inches, isolated 30 inches. Coastal Carolinas...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. The Atlantic Coast from the Florida peninsula through Georgia...3 to 6 inches, isolated 9 inches. Southeastern Virginia...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. Central Bahamas...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. SURF: Large swells are affecting east-facing shores of the Bahamas and the Florida east coast, and will spread northward along the southeastern United States coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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