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Hurricane Dorian Public Advisory Number 33
2019-09-01 16:56:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sun Sep 01 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 011456 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 1100 AM EDT Sun Sep 01 2019 ...DORIAN BECOMES THE STRONGEST HURRICANE IN MODERN RECORDS FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. ...CATASTROPHIC CONDITIONS OCCURING IN THE ABACOS ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.5N 76.8W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM ENE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH...285 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...913 MB...26.96 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the east coast of Florida from north of Deerfield Beach to the Volusia/Brevard County Line. A Storm Surge Watch has also been issued from north of Deerfield Beach to the Volusia/Brevard County Line. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Lake Okeechobee. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * North of Deerfield Beach to the Volusia/Brevard County Line A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Andros Island * North of Deerfield Beach to the Volusia/Brevard County Line A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Golden Beach to Deerfield Beach * Lake Okeechobee A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the east coast of Florida should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian, as additional watches or warnings may be required later today. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the extremely distinct eye of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 26.5 North, longitude 76.8 West. Dorian is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). A slower westward motion should continue for the next day or two, followed by a gradual turn toward the northwest. On this track, the core of extremely dangerous Hurricane Dorian will continue to move over Great Abaco and move near or over Grand Bahama Island later tonight and Monday. The hurricane should move closer to the Florida east coast late Monday through Tuesday night. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 180 mph (285 km/h) with higher gusts. Dorian is a extremely dangerous category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely, but Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next few days. Dorian has grown larger in size. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm- force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). Ham radio reports indicate that Hope Town in the Abacos just reported wind gust to 100 mph. The minimum central pressure measured by both NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance plane was 913 mb (26.96 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Catastrophic hurricane conditions are occurring in the Abacos Islands and will spread across Grand Bahama Island later today and tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area in Florida by late Monday or early Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area on Monday and Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area by Monday night. STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 18 to 23 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds on the Abaco Islands and Grand Bahama Island. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Volusia/Brevard County Line to Jupiter Inlet FL...4 to 7 ft North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet FL...2 to 4 ft The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close the center of Dorian comes to the Florida east coast, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through late this week: Northwestern Bahamas...12 to 24 inches, isolated 30 inches. Coastal Carolinas...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. Central Bahamas and the Atlantic Coast from the Florida peninsula through Georgia...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. SURF: Large swells are already affecting east-facing shores of the Bahamas, the Florida east coast, and will spread northward along the southeastern United States coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Hurricane Dorian Forecast Advisory Number 33
2019-09-01 16:55:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 01 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 011455 TCMAT5 HURRICANE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 1500 UTC SUN SEP 01 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH TO THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE. A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH TO THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH TO THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS EXCLUDING ANDROS ISLAND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ANDROS ISLAND * NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH TO THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH TO SEBASTIAN INLET A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH TO DEERFIELD BEACH * LAKE OKEECHOBEE A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN...AS ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 76.8W AT 01/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 913 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 155 KT WITH GUSTS TO 190 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT.......120NE 110SE 70SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 90SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 76.8W AT 01/1500Z AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 76.5W FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 26.6N 77.7W MAX WIND 150 KT...GUSTS 185 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 26.8N 78.5W MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 27.0N 79.0W MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 27.4N 79.4W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 130SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 29.7N 80.2W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 150SE 70SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 32.5N 79.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 35.5N 74.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.5N 76.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 01/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Summary for Hurricane Dorian (AT5/AL052019)
2019-09-01 15:30:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DORIAN BECOMES THE STRONGEST HURRICANE IN MODERN RECORDS FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. ...CATASTROPHIC CONDITIONS OCCURING IN THE ABACOS ISLANDS... As of 11:00 AM EDT Sun Sep 1 the center of Dorian was located near 26.5, -76.8 with movement W at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 913 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 180 mph.
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Summary for Hurricane Dorian (AT5/AL052019)
2019-09-01 13:52:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...EYEWALL OF NOW CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE DORIAN ABOUT TO HIT THE ABACO ISLANDS WITH DEVASTATING WINDS... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO EXPECTED... As of 8:00 AM EDT Sun Sep 1 the center of Dorian was located near 26.5, -76.5 with movement W at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 927 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 160 mph.
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Hurricane Dorian Public Advisory Number 32A
2019-09-01 13:52:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM EDT Sun Sep 01 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 011152 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 32A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 800 AM EDT Sun Sep 01 2019 ...EYEWALL OF NOW CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE DORIAN ABOUT TO HIT THE ABACO ISLANDS WITH DEVASTATING WINDS... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO EXPECTED... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.5N 76.5W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM E OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...927 MB...27.37 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Andros Island A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Golden Beach to Deerfield Beach A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in southern and central Florida should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian. Additional watches or warnings may be required for portions of the east coast of Florida today. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the distinct eye of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 26.5 North, longitude 76.5 West. Dorian is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a slower westward motion should occur for the next day or two, followed by a gradual turn toward the northwest. On this track, the core of extremely dangerous Hurricane Dorian should be moving over Great Abaco soon, and continue near or over Grand Bahama Island later tonight and Monday. The hurricane should move closer to the Florida east coast late Monday through Tuesday night. Data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane which just penetrated the eye of Dorian indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher gusts. Dorian is now a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely, but Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next few days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). Elbow Cay in the Abaco Islands just reported winds of 35 mph (56 km/h) The minimum central pressure just measured by an Air Force plane was 927 mb (27.37 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Devastating hurricane conditions are expected in the Abacos Islands very soon and these conditions will spread across Grand Bahama Island later today. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area on Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area by Monday night. STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 15 to 20 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds on the Abaco Islands and Grand Bahama Island. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through late this week: Northwestern Bahamas...12 to 24 inches, isolated 30 inches. Coastal Carolinas...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. Central Bahamas and the Atlantic Coast from the Florida peninsula through Georgia...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. SURF: Large swells will affect the east-facing shores of the Bahamas, the Florida east coast, and the southeastern United States coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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