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Hurricane Dorian Graphics

2019-09-01 22:57:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 01 Sep 2019 20:57:59 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 01 Sep 2019 21:24:49 GMT

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Hurricane Dorian Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map

2019-09-01 22:57:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Sun, 01 Sep 2019 20:57:29 GMT

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Hurricane Dorian Forecast Discussion Number 34

2019-09-01 22:56:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM EDT Sun Sep 01 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 012056 TCDAT5 Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 500 PM EDT Sun Sep 01 2019 The distinct eye of powerful Hurricane Dorian is moving over Great Abaco. The latest wind and pressure data from an Air Force reconnaissance plane just before the eye hit the island indicated that the winds reached 160 kt, which is the initial intensity for this advisory. It is not very often that we measure such strong winds. The minimum pressure measured by the plane was 910 mb. The eye has been shrinking, and an eyewall replacement cycle is possibly occurring. The effect of the island terrain and the eyewall replacement cycle should result in some slight fluctuations in intensity during the next 24 to 36 hours, but the hurricane will continue to be extremely dangerous one during that time. After 3 days, a more definite weakening trend should begin as the hurricane encounters stronger shear. Dorian however, it is forecast to remain a hurricane for the next 5 days. Dorian has slowed down even more and is now moving toward the west or 270 degrees at 4 kt. The steering currents are collapsing and Dorian is expected to slow down a little more, prolonging its catastrophic effects in the northwestern Bahamas. The NHC forecast calls for a slow west to west-northwest motion during the next 48 hours. A turn to the north and northeast with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected thereafter, as the mid-level trough over the eastern United States deepens. The current forecast is not very different from the previous one, and it is very close to the multi-model consensus TVCA. Both the deterministic and consensus tracks have shown the usual variability to the right or to the left from run to run, but the overall trend is for the hurricane to turn northward offshore but dangerously close to the Florida peninsula. Given the uncertainty in the track forecast and the anticipated increase in size of the hurricane, a Hurricane Warning and Storm Surge Warning have been issued for a portion of the Florida east coast. It is once again emphasized that although the official track forecast does not show landfall, users should not focus on the exact track. A small deviation to the left of the track could bring the intense core of the hurricane its dangerous winds closer to or onto the Florida coast. Key Messages: 1. A prolonged period of catastrophic winds and storm surge will affect the Abaco Islands and Grand Bahama Island tonight. Everyone there should take immediate shelter and not venture into the eye. 2. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of the Florida east coast through mid-week, and storm surge and hurricane warnings are in effect. Only a slight deviation to the left of the official forecast would bring the core of Dorian near or over the Florida east coast. Residents should listen to advice given by local emergency officials. 3. There is an increasing likelihood of strong winds and dangerous storm surge along the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina later this week. Residents in these areas should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian and listen to advice given by local emergency officials. 4. Heavy rains, capable of producing life-threatening flash floods, are expected over northern portions of the Bahamas and coastal sections of the southeast and lower mid-Atlantic regions of the United States through late this week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 26.6N 77.3W 160 KT 185 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 26.7N 78.1W 155 KT 180 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 26.8N 78.7W 145 KT 165 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 27.0N 79.0W 135 KT 155 MPH 48H 03/1800Z 27.7N 79.5W 125 KT 145 MPH 72H 04/1800Z 30.0N 80.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 05/1800Z 33.0N 78.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 06/1800Z 36.5N 73.5W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila

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Hurricane Dorian Wind Speed Probabilities Number 34

2019-09-01 22:55:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 01 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 012055 PWSAT5 HURRICANE DORIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 2100 UTC SUN SEP 01 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 160 KTS...185 MPH...295 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) CAPE HENLOPEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) CAPE HENLOPEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 31(33) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) WALLOPS CDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 24(28) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) NORFOLK NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 25(30) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) NORFOLK VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 28(33) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) OCEANA NAS VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 33(42) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) ELIZABETH CTY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 4(12) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 10(21) RALEIGH NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 18(30) ROCKY MT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) ROCKY MT NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 43(64) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 32(39) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 21(24) 11(35) FAYETTEVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) FAYETTEVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 2(14) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) 31(55) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 18(25) CHERRY PT NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 31(33) 33(66) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 30(41) NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 18(23) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 32(35) 31(66) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 28(40) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 16(21) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 32(35) 22(57) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 14(25) SURF CITY NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 34(39) 17(56) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 11(24) WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 44(57) 12(69) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 28(29) 13(42) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 9(24) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 29(35) 5(40) FLORENCE SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 2(11) FLORENCE SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 19(26) 2(28) COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) COLUMBIA SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 40(47) 10(57) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 6(25) LITTLE RIVER 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 44(63) 7(70) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 28(30) 7(37) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 3(18) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 44(56) 6(62) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 23(25) 4(29) GEORGETOWN SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) 41(62) 2(64) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 24(28) 2(30) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 1(12) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 25(28) 34(62) 1(63) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 22(28) X(28) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 16(24) 1(25) AUGUSTA GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 28(32) 28(60) 1(61) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 18(26) X(26) SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) KINGS BAY GA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 46(54) 16(70) X(70) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 13(32) X(32) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 22(27) 16(43) X(43) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) X(10) WAYCROSS GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) MAYPORT NS FL 34 1 2( 3) 4( 7) 14(21) 54(75) 9(84) 1(85) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 36(38) 13(51) 1(52) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 11(28) X(28) JACKSONVILLE 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 6(10) 44(54) 14(68) X(68) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 10(28) X(28) JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) GAINESVILLE FL 34 1 1( 2) 3( 5) 6(11) 31(42) 7(49) X(49) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 2(13) 1(14) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) DAYTONA BEACH 34 1 3( 4) 6(10) 29(39) 41(80) 4(84) X(84) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 37(47) 3(50) X(50) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 1(19) X(19) THE VILLAGES 34 1 2( 3) 4( 7) 14(21) 30(51) 5(56) X(56) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 13(16) 1(17) X(17) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) ORLANDO FL 34 2 3( 5) 13(18) 30(48) 24(72) 3(75) X(75) ORLANDO FL 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 11(13) 23(36) 2(38) X(38) ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 1(15) X(15) COCOA BEACH FL 34 3 33(36) 31(67) 24(91) 7(98) X(98) X(98) COCOA BEACH FL 50 1 2( 3) 15(18) 35(53) 23(76) 1(77) X(77) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 24(27) 24(51) 2(53) X(53) PATRICK AFB 34 2 13(15) 30(45) 32(77) 15(92) 1(93) X(93) PATRICK AFB 50 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 30(39) 25(64) 1(65) X(65) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 17(31) 1(32) X(32) FT PIERCE FL 34 11 61(72) 18(90) 7(97) 2(99) 1(99) X(99) FT PIERCE FL 50 2 14(16) 31(47) 28(75) 9(84) 1(85) X(85) FT PIERCE FL 64 X 2( 2) 17(19) 26(45) 12(57) X(57) X(57) W PALM BEACH 34 26 60(86) 9(95) 3(98) 1(99) X(99) X(99) W PALM BEACH 50 2 34(36) 24(60) 14(74) 3(77) 1(78) X(78) W PALM BEACH 64 X 8( 8) 19(27) 12(39) 3(42) X(42) X(42) FT LAUDERDALE 34 13 60(73) 15(88) 3(91) 2(93) X(93) X(93) FT LAUDERDALE 50 2 18(20) 17(37) 9(46) 2(48) X(48) X(48) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X 3( 3) 7(10) 4(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) MIAMI FL 34 2 25(27) 19(46) 6(52) 4(56) X(56) X(56) MIAMI FL 50 1 2( 3) 6( 9) 4(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) MIAMI FL 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 2 12(14) 14(28) 6(34) 5(39) X(39) X(39) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 1 1( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) HOMESTEAD ARB 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MARATHON FL 34 2 3( 5) 8(13) 5(18) 4(22) X(22) X(22) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KEY WEST FL 34 1 3( 4) 4( 8) 3(11) 4(15) X(15) X(15) NAPLES FL 34 1 3( 4) 6(10) 8(18) 7(25) 1(26) X(26) NAPLES FL 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) FT MYERS FL 34 1 3( 4) 7(11) 10(21) 9(30) 2(32) X(32) FT MYERS FL 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) VENICE FL 34 1 2( 3) 4( 7) 8(15) 9(24) 2(26) X(26) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TAMPA FL 34 1 2( 3) 4( 7) 8(15) 16(31) 3(34) X(34) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 9(15) 26(41) 5(46) X(46) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 8(11) 4(15) X(15) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 9(12) 4(16) X(16) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 3(14) X(14) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 8(11) 2(13) X(13) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) GRAND BAHAMA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GRAND BAHAMA 50 94 6(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GRAND BAHAMA 64 43 45(88) 5(93) 1(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 50 11(61) 7(68) 2(70) 2(72) X(72) X(72) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 2 2( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ANDROS 34 3 4( 7) 6(13) 3(16) 3(19) X(19) X(19) GREAT EXUMA 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAN SALVADOR 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HAVANA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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Hurricane Dorian Public Advisory Number 34

2019-09-01 22:55:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM EDT Sun Sep 01 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 012055 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 500 PM EDT Sun Sep 01 2019 ...EYE OF CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE DORIAN CRAWLING OVER THE ABACOS ISLANDS IN THE BAHAMAS... ...DORIAN'S FURY NOW AIMING TOWARD GRAND BAHAMA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.6N 77.3W ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM E OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...910 MB...26.88 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from Lantana to the Volusia/Brevard County Line. A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from the Volusia/Brevard County Line to the Flagler/Volusia County Line. A Hurricane Warning has been issued from Jupiter Inlet to the Volusia/Brevard County Line. A Hurricane Watch has been issued from the Volusia/Brevard County Line to the Flagler/Volusia County Line SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Lantana to the Volusia/Brevard County Line A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * North of Deerfield Beach to Lantana * Volusia/Brevard County Line to the Flagler/Volusia County Line A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island * Jupiter Inlet to the Volusia/Brevard County Line A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Andros Island * North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet * Volusia/Brevard County Line to the Flagler/Volusia County Line A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Golden Beach to Deerfield Beach * Lake Okeechobee A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the east coast of Florida should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian, as additional watches or warnings may be required later today. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the distinct eye of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 26.6 North, longitude 77.3 West. Dorian is moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slower westward to west-northwestward motions should continue for the next day or two, followed by a gradual turn toward the northwest. On this track, the core of extremely dangerous Hurricane Dorian will continue to pound Great Abaco this evening and move near or over Grand Bahama Island tonight and Monday. The hurricane will move dangerously close to the Florida east coast late Monday through Tuesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 185 mph (295 km/h) with higher gusts. Dorian is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely, and Dorian is expected to remain a catastrophic hurricane during the next few days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The last minimum central pressure measured by an Air Force reconnaissance plane a couple of hours ago was 910 mb (26.88 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Catastrophic hurricane conditions are occurring in the Abacos Islands and will spread across Grand Bahama Island tonight. Do not venture out into the eye, as winds will suddenly increase as the eye passes. Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area in Florida by late Monday or Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area on Monday and Tuesday and are possible in the tropical storm watch area by Monday night. STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 18 to 23 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds on the Abaco Islands and Grand Bahama Island. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Volusia/Brevard County Line to Jupiter Inlet FL...4 to 7 ft North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet FL...2 to 4 ft The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close the center of Dorian comes to the Florida east coast, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through late this week: Northwestern Bahamas...12 to 24 inches, isolated 30 inches. Coastal Carolinas...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. The Atlantic Coast from the Florida peninsula through Georgia...3 to 6 inches, isolated 9 inches. Southeastern Virginia...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. Central Bahamas...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. SURF: Large swells are already affecting east-facing shores of the Bahamas, the Florida east coast, and will spread northward along the southeastern United States coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Avila

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