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Hurricane Dorian Forecast Advisory Number 34
2019-09-01 22:55:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 01 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 012055 TCMAT5 HURRICANE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 2100 UTC SUN SEP 01 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM LANTANA TO THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE. A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO THE FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE. A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM JUPITER INLET TO THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE. A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO THE FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LANTANA TO THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH TO LANTANA * VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO THE FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS EXCLUDING ANDROS ISLAND * JUPITER INLET TO THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ANDROS ISLAND * NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH TO JUPITER INLET * VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO THE FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH TO JUPITER INLET A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH TO DEERFIELD BEACH * LAKE OKEECHOBEE A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN...AS ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 77.3W AT 01/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 910 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 160 KT WITH GUSTS TO 195 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT.......120NE 110SE 70SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 90SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 77.3W AT 01/2100Z AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 77.1W FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 26.7N 78.1W MAX WIND 155 KT...GUSTS 190 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 26.8N 78.7W MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 27.0N 79.0W MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 27.7N 79.5W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 30.0N 80.3W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 70SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 33.0N 78.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 36.5N 73.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.6N 77.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 02/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Summary for Hurricane Dorian (AT5/AL052019)
2019-09-01 21:57:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...EYE OF CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE DORIAN CRAWLING OVER THE ABACOS ISLANDS IN THE BAHAMAS... ...DORIAN'S FURY NOW AIMING TOWARD GRAND BAHAMA... As of 5:00 PM EDT Sun Sep 1 the center of Dorian was located near 26.6, -77.3 with movement W at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 910 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 185 mph.
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Hurricane Dorian Update Statement
2019-09-01 20:56:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Sep 01 2019 000 WTNT65 KNHC 011856 TCUAT5 Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 300 PM EDT Sun Sep 01 2019 ...CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 DORIAN MOVING ACROSS GREAT ABACO... This is a life-threatening situation. Residents in the Abacos should stay in their shelter. Do not venture into the eye if it passes over your location. Hazards: - Wind Gusts over 220 mph - Storm Surge 18 to 23 feet above normal tide levels with higher destructive waves These hazards will cause extreme destruction in the affected areas and will continue for several hours. SUMMARY OF 300 PM EDT...1900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.6N 77.2W ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM E OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...910 MB...26.87 INCHES $$ Forecaster Blake
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update statement
Summary for Hurricane Dorian (AT5/AL052019)
2019-09-01 20:56:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 DORIAN MOVING ACROSS GREAT ABACO... As of 3:00 PM EDT Sun Sep 1 the center of Dorian was located near 26.6, -77.2 with movement W at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 910 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 185 mph.
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Hurricane Dorian Public Advisory Number 33A
2019-09-01 19:46:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM EDT Sun Sep 01 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 011746 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 33A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 200 PM EDT Sun Sep 01 2019 ...EYE OF CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE DORIAN OVER THE ABACOS ISLANDS IN THE BAHAMAS... ...HEADING WITH ALL ITS FURY TOWARD GRAND BAHAMA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.5N 77.1W ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM OVER GREAT ABACO ISLAND ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...911 MB...26.90 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * North of Deerfield Beach to the Volusia/Brevard County Line A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Andros Island * North of Deerfield Beach to the Volusia/Brevard County Line A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Golden Beach to Deerfield Beach * Lake Okeechobee A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the east coast of Florida should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian, as additional watches or warnings may be required later today. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the extremely distinct eye of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 26.5 North, longitude 77.1 West. Dorian is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). A slower westward motion should continue for the next day or two, followed by a gradual turn toward the northwest. On this track, the core of extremely dangerous Hurricane Dorian will continue to pound Great Abaco today and the move near or over Grand Bahama Island tonight and Monday. The hurricane should move closer to the Florida east coast late Monday through Tuesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 185 mph (295 km/h) with higher gusts. Dorian is a extremely dangerous category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely, and Dorian is expected to remain a catastrophic hurricane during the next few days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The minimum central pressure measured by both NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance plane was 911 mb (26.90 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Catastrophic hurricane conditions are occurring in the Abacos Islands and will spread across Grand Bahama Island later today and tonight. Do not venture out into the eye, as winds will suddenly increase as the eye passes. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area in Florida by late Monday or early Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area on Monday and Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area by Monday night. STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 18 to 23 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds on the Abaco Islands and Grand Bahama Island. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Volusia/Brevard County Line to Jupiter Inlet FL...4 to 7 ft North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet FL...2 to 4 ft The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close the center of Dorian comes to the Florida east coast, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through late this week: Northwestern Bahamas...12 to 24 inches, isolated 30 inches. Coastal Carolinas...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. Central Bahamas and the Atlantic Coast from the Florida peninsula through Georgia...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. SURF: Large swells are already affecting east-facing shores of the Bahamas, the Florida east coast, and will spread northward along the southeastern United States coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. Hourly Tropical Cyclone Update statements will begin at 300 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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