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Home › dorian

 

Tag: dorian

Hurricane Dorian Graphics

2019-09-01 13:52:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 01 Sep 2019 11:52:45 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 01 Sep 2019 09:25:00 GMT

Tags: graphics hurricane hurricane graphics graphics hurricane

Hurricane Dorian Graphics

2019-09-01 11:00:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 01 Sep 2019 09:00:18 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 01 Sep 2019 09:00:18 GMT

Tags: graphics hurricane dorian

Hurricane Dorian Forecast Discussion Number 32

2019-09-01 10:59:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM EDT Sun Sep 01 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 010859 TCDAT5 Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 500 AM EDT Sun Sep 01 2019 Dorian continues to exhibit a well-defined eye surrounded by very cold cloud tops on satellite images. Observations from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft from several hours ago indicated that the intensity was still near 130 kt, and since the cloud pattern remains very impressive, it is assumed that Dorian has at least maintained that strength through the present time. The hurricane will remain in a fairly low-shear environment for the next few days, however since it is forecast to move quite slowly over the shallow waters of the northwesternnmost Bahamas through Monday, this would likely result in less available oceanic heat content. Therefore, a very slow weakening is anticipated to commence after 12 hours or so. The official intensity forecast is near the high end of the numerical guidance suite. The hurricane continues moving westward, or about 280/7 kt. A high pressure ridge to the north of Dorian should maintain this westward movement through today. By tonight, the global models show the ridge weakening, and this evolution should result in a slowing of the forward speed, with the hurricane becoming nearly stationary around 48 hours. In comparison to its earlier runs, the new ECMWF track forecast takes the system farther to the west during the next couple of days, and is the southwesternmost model through 48 hours. As a result, the official track forecast has been shifted a little west during that time frame. In 2 to 4 days, Dorian should turn northward in response to a trough over the eastern United States. By the end of the period, the flow on the south side of the trough should cause the cyclone to move northeastward near the Carolinas. The westward shift of the NHC track within the first 48 hours necessitates the change from a Tropical Storm Watch to a Tropical Storm Warning for a portion of the Florida east coast. Although the official track forecast does not show landfall, users should not focus on the exact track since a Florida landfall is still a distinct possibility. Key Messages: 1. A prolonged period of life-threatening storm surge, devastating hurricane-force winds, and heavy rains capable of producing life-threatening flash floods are expected on the Abaco Islands and Grand Bahama through Monday, and a hurricane warning is in effect for these areas. 2. A tropical storm warning is now in effect for a portion of the Florida east coast. Since Dorian is forecast to slow down and turn northward as it approaches the coast, life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds are still possible along portions of the Florida east coast by the middle part of this week. Residents should have their hurricane plan in place, know if they are in a hurricane evacuation zone, and listen to advice given by local emergency officials. 3. There is an increasing risk of strong winds and dangerous storm surge along the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina later this week. Residents in these areas should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian. 4. Heavy rains, capable of producing life-threatening flash floods, are possible over coastal sections of the southeast and lower mid-Atlantic regions of the United States through late this week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 26.4N 76.0W 130 KT 150 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 26.6N 77.1W 135 KT 155 MPH 24H 02/0600Z 26.7N 78.1W 125 KT 145 MPH 36H 02/1800Z 26.9N 78.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 03/0600Z 27.0N 79.0W 120 KT 140 MPH 72H 04/0600Z 28.9N 79.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 05/0600Z 31.8N 79.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 06/0600Z 34.5N 76.0W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Hurricane Dorian Wind Speed Probabilities Number 32

2019-09-01 10:52:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 01 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 010852 PWSAT5 HURRICANE DORIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 0900 UTC SUN SEP 01 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 130 KTS...150 MPH...240 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) OCEANA NAS VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) ELIZABETH CTY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 18(22) ROCKY MT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 42(50) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 17(29) FAYETTEVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 35(43) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) CHERRY PT NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 41(56) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 27(29) NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 40(56) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 26(29) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 33(48) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) SURF CITY NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 30(48) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 16(20) WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 30(34) 28(62) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 26(36) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 12(34) FLORENCE SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) FLORENCE SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 7(26) COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 25(27) 26(53) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 13(20) LITTLE RIVER 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 35(41) 23(64) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 17(32) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 34(38) 19(57) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 9(22) GEORGETOWN SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 38(44) 12(56) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 5(23) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 39(47) 6(53) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 2(21) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 4(22) AUGUSTA GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 39(48) 3(51) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 2(18) SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) KINGS BAY GA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 20(25) 32(57) 1(58) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 19(23) X(23) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 10(12) 23(35) 1(36) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) WAYCROSS GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 5(10) 37(47) 31(78) X(78) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 27(39) 1(40) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) X(19) JACKSONVILLE 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 20(26) 28(54) 1(55) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) X(19) JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 17(24) 15(39) X(39) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) DAYTONA BEACH 34 1 2( 3) 4( 7) 9(16) 43(59) 15(74) X(74) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 21(23) 12(35) X(35) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) X(10) THE VILLAGES 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 7(12) 26(38) 11(49) 1(50) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 7( 8) 5(13) X(13) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) ORLANDO FL 34 1 2( 3) 7(10) 16(26) 35(61) 7(68) 1(69) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 19(24) 5(29) X(29) ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 3(12) X(12) COCOA BEACH FL 34 2 9(11) 39(50) 21(71) 23(94) 1(95) X(95) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 14(22) 41(63) 5(68) X(68) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 31(38) 3(41) X(41) PATRICK AFB 34 1 4( 5) 22(27) 21(48) 37(85) 3(88) X(88) PATRICK AFB 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 9(13) 35(48) 4(52) X(52) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 17(21) 2(23) X(23) FT PIERCE FL 34 2 31(33) 43(76) 12(88) 10(98) X(98) X(98) FT PIERCE FL 50 X 2( 2) 24(26) 23(49) 29(78) 2(80) X(80) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) 8( 8) 15(23) 29(52) 1(53) X(53) W PALM BEACH 34 2 46(48) 34(82) 10(92) 5(97) 1(98) X(98) W PALM BEACH 50 1 5( 6) 31(37) 18(55) 17(72) 1(73) X(73) W PALM BEACH 64 X 1( 1) 13(14) 14(28) 19(47) X(47) X(47) FT LAUDERDALE 34 2 31(33) 36(69) 15(84) 7(91) 1(92) X(92) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X 4( 4) 16(20) 15(35) 12(47) X(47) X(47) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 7(13) 11(24) X(24) X(24) MIAMI FL 34 1 6( 7) 21(28) 17(45) 11(56) 2(58) X(58) MIAMI FL 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) 8(19) 1(20) X(20) MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 1 4( 5) 12(17) 15(32) 11(43) 1(44) X(44) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 6(13) 1(14) X(14) HOMESTEAD ARB 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) MARATHON FL 34 1 3( 4) 5( 9) 10(19) 10(29) 1(30) X(30) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) KEY WEST FL 34 1 2( 3) 4( 7) 5(12) 7(19) 1(20) X(20) NAPLES FL 34 1 1( 2) 5( 7) 8(15) 14(29) 2(31) X(31) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) FT MYERS FL 34 1 2( 3) 4( 7) 10(17) 16(33) 3(36) X(36) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) VENICE FL 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) 13(24) 4(28) X(28) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) TAMPA FL 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) 16(27) 6(33) X(33) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 19(28) 9(37) 1(38) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) 1(13) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 7(14) X(14) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) X(11) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) X(11) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) GRAND BAHAMA 34 54 45(99) 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GRAND BAHAMA 50 3 78(81) 14(95) 1(96) 2(98) X(98) X(98) GRAND BAHAMA 64 1 50(51) 25(76) 5(81) 6(87) X(87) X(87) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 21 34(55) 7(62) 6(68) 4(72) X(72) X(72) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 2 3( 5) 4( 9) 3(12) 3(15) X(15) X(15) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ANDROS 34 2 4( 6) 6(12) 7(19) 7(26) X(26) X(26) ANDROS 50 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GREAT EXUMA 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) 3( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) SAN SALVADOR 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) HAVANA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CIENFUEGOS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Summary for Hurricane Dorian (AT5/AL052019)

2019-09-01 10:51:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE DORIAN EXPECTED TO HIT THE ABACO ISLANDS AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND LATER TODAY... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS...AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED... As of 5:00 AM EDT Sun Sep 1 the center of Dorian was located near 26.4, -76.0 with movement W at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 934 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 150 mph.

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