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Tropical Storm DALILA Forecast Discussion Number 18

2013-07-04 04:39:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT WED JUL 03 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 040239 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 800 PM PDT WED JUL 03 2013 SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS REVEALS THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN OF DALILA IS DETERIORATING FAST. AN SSMI/S MICROWAVE PASS...AROUND 0000 UTC...SHOWED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS REMOVED FROM A SHRINKING AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. FURTHERMORE... LATEST AVAILABLE SCATTEROMETER DATA SUGGEST THAT THE WINDS COULD BE LOWER THAN INDICATED. HOWEVER...SINCE I INHERITED A 60-KNOT STORM...I WOULD RATHER LOWER THE WINDS GRADUALLY...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 50 KNOTS. IT APPEARS THAT DRY AND STABLE AIR IS ALREADY AFFECTING THE CIRCULATION...AND THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS INCREASING SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL WEAKENING...BUT THIS PROCESS COULD OCCUR FASTER THAN FORECAST. DALILA HAS BARELY MOVED DURING THE DAY...TRAPPED TO THE SOUTH OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A SLOW WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS UNTIL DISSIPATION. THIS SCENARIO IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 17.6N 108.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 17.5N 109.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 17.4N 110.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 05/1200Z 17.5N 111.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 06/0000Z 17.6N 112.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 07/0000Z 18.0N 115.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 08/0000Z 18.5N 117.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 09/0000Z 19.0N 121.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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Summary for Tropical Storm DALILA (EP4/EP042013)

2013-07-04 04:38:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...DALILA FORECAST TO WEAKEN IN A HURRY... As of 8:00 PM PDT Wed Jul 3 the center of DALILA was located near 17.6, -108.4 with movement W at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

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Tropical Storm DALILA Public Advisory Number 18

2013-07-04 04:38:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT WED JUL 03 2013 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 040238 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DALILA ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 800 PM PDT WED JUL 03 2013 ...DALILA FORECAST TO WEAKEN IN A HURRY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.6N 108.4W ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DALILA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.4 WEST. DALILA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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Tropical Storm DALILA Forecast Advisory Number 18

2013-07-04 04:38:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC THU JUL 04 2013 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 040238 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM DALILA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 0300 UTC THU JUL 04 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 108.4W AT 04/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 45SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 108.4W AT 04/0300Z AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 108.2W FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 17.5N 109.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 17.4N 110.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 17.5N 111.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 17.6N 112.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 18.0N 115.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 18.5N 117.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 19.0N 121.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 108.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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