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Tropical Storm DALILA Forecast Discussion Number 20
2013-07-04 16:55:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT THU JUL 04 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 041455 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 800 AM PDT THU JUL 04 2013 DRY AIR AND EASTERLY SHEAR HAS TAKEN ITS TOLL ON DALILA AS THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM HAS DIMINISHED VERY QUICKLY OVERNIGHT. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 35 KT WHICH IS A BLEND OF THE LATEST T-NUMBERS AND EARLIER OSCAT DATA. ALTHOUGH DALILA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER MARGINALLY WARM SSTS FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO...THE DRY AIR AND SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE CYCLONE. DALILA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 36 HOURS...BUT THIS COULD OCCUR SOONER IF ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION DOES NOT REDEVELOP. DALILA APPEARS TO BE MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 6 KT. A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST AS THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE SHIFTS EASTWARD. LATER IN THE PERIOD...SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT DALILA OR ITS REMNANTS COULD INTERACT WITH THE NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE TO THE SOUTHEAST. BECAUSE OF THIS POSSIBILITY... THE TRACK DURING THE POST-TROPICAL PHASE IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 17.4N 109.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 17.3N 110.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 17.4N 111.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 17.7N 113.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 06/1200Z 18.0N 114.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/1200Z 18.5N 116.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 08/1200Z 18.8N 118.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm DALILA Forecast Advisory Number 20
2013-07-04 16:54:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUL 04 2013 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 041454 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM DALILA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 1500 UTC THU JUL 04 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 109.8W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 90SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 109.8W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 109.5W FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 17.3N 110.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 17.4N 111.8W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 17.7N 113.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 18.0N 114.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 18.5N 116.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 18.8N 118.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 109.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm DALILA Graphics
2013-07-04 10:33:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 04 Jul 2013 08:33:10 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 04 Jul 2013 08:31:43 GMT
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Tropical Storm DALILA Forecast Discussion Number 19
2013-07-04 10:32:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT THU JUL 04 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 040832 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 200 AM PDT THU JUL 04 2013 DALILA CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO ONGOING MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT...WITH THE CENTER NOW ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE REMAINING CONVECTION. BASED MAINLY ON CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO AN UNCERTAIN 45 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 265/4. A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD STEER DALILA GENERALLY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO...THAT DALILA OR ITS REMNANTS COULD INTERACT WITH THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHEAST. SHOULD THIS INTERACTION OCCUR...DALILA COULD MOVE MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. THE CURRENT SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...CAUSING DALILA TO STEADILY WEAKEN. IN ADDITION...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AFTER 48 HOURS. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR DALILA TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...AND TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT BOTH OF THESE EVENTS COULD OCCUR EARLIER THAN FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 17.5N 108.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 17.4N 109.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 05/0600Z 17.4N 110.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 05/1800Z 17.5N 111.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 06/0600Z 17.9N 113.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 07/0600Z 18.5N 115.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 08/0600Z 19.0N 118.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 09/0600Z 19.0N 122.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Summary for Tropical Storm DALILA (EP4/EP042013)
2013-07-04 10:31:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DALILA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES WESTWARD... As of 2:00 AM PDT Thu Jul 4 the center of DALILA was located near 17.5, -108.9 with movement W at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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