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Tropical Storm DALILA Public Advisory Number 19
2013-07-04 10:31:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT THU JUL 04 2013 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 040831 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DALILA ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 200 AM PDT THU JUL 04 2013 ...DALILA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 108.9W ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DALILA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.9 WEST. DALILA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND DALILA COULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm DALILA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
2013-07-04 10:31:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUL 04 2013 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 040831 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM DALILA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 0900 UTC THU JUL 04 2013 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DALILA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 5 14 15 26 27 37 TROP DEPRESSION 11 36 40 40 44 46 46 TROPICAL STORM 88 56 43 41 29 26 16 HURRICANE 1 3 3 4 1 1 X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 1 3 3 4 1 1 X HUR CAT 2 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 40KT 35KT 30KT 30KT 25KT 25KT 20KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 8( 9) 3(12) 1(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) ISLA CLARION 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 9(10) 9(19) 2(21) X(21) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Storm DALILA Forecast Advisory Number 19
2013-07-04 10:31:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUL 04 2013 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 040831 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM DALILA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 0900 UTC THU JUL 04 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 108.9W AT 04/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 108.9W AT 04/0900Z AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 108.7W FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 17.4N 109.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 17.4N 110.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 17.5N 111.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 17.9N 113.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 18.5N 115.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 19.0N 118.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 19.0N 122.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 108.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm DALILA Graphics
2013-07-04 05:07:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 04 Jul 2013 02:41:22 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 04 Jul 2013 03:03:44 GMT
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Tropical Storm DALILA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
2013-07-04 04:39:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU JUL 04 2013 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 040238 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM DALILA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 0300 UTC THU JUL 04 2013 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DALILA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 3 9 16 19 29 29 TROP DEPRESSION 5 24 34 40 41 47 49 TROPICAL STORM 92 68 52 40 38 24 22 HURRICANE 3 5 5 4 2 1 1 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 3 5 4 4 2 1 1 HUR CAT 2 X X 1 X X X X HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 45KT 40KT 35KT 30KT 30KT 25KT 25KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 6( 7) 8(15) 2(17) 2(19) X(19) X(19) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 12(16) 1(17) 1(18) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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