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Hurricane DALILA Forecast Discussion Number 16
2013-07-03 16:42:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT WED JUL 03 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 031442 TCDEP4 HURRICANE DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 800 AM PDT WED JUL 03 2013 DALILA APPEARS TO HAVE UNDERGONE ANOTHER STRUCTURAL TRANSFORMATION...AND A 0935 UTC MICROWAVE IMAGE FROM TRMM INDICATED THAT THE INNER-CORE HAD BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED. A CONSENSUS OF OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 1200 UTC IS ABOUT 70 KT...HOWEVER THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED A LITTLE SINCE THEN...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD AT 65 KT. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH...AND SUGGESTS THAT DALILA WILL REMAIN NEAR HURRICANE INTENSITY FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT...STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED WHILE DALILA MOVES INTO AN AREA OF COLDER WATER AND STRONGER SHEAR...AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS DIAGNOSTIC OUTPUT. DALILA IS STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE CENTER OF DALILA REMAINS DIFFICULT TO FIND...HOWEVER EXTRAPOLATING THE POSITION OF THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE AS INDICATED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED TRMM PASS YIELDS AN ESTIMATED MOTION OF 240/3. DALILA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO...BEFORE TURNING TO THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY WEST-NORTHWEST WHILE THE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO ITS NORTH PROPAGATES EASTWARD. THE DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE STILL VARIES GREATLY ON HOW QUICKLY DALILA WILL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY NEAR THAT OF THE GFS...WHICH HAS BEEN A GOOD PERFORMER FOR THIS STORM THUS FAR. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 17.8N 108.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 17.6N 108.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 17.2N 109.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 17.1N 110.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 05/1200Z 17.1N 111.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 06/1200Z 17.5N 114.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 07/1200Z 18.5N 116.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 08/1200Z 19.0N 119.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER PASCH/ZELINSKY
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Hurricane DALILA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2013-07-03 16:41:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUL 03 2013 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 031441 PWSEP4 HURRICANE DALILA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 1500 UTC WED JUL 03 2013 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DALILA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X 1 1 4 12 29 TROP DEPRESSION X 2 6 8 21 39 49 TROPICAL STORM 42 47 58 56 63 46 22 HURRICANE 58 51 36 35 12 3 1 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 55 43 29 28 11 3 1 HUR CAT 2 3 6 5 6 1 X X HUR CAT 3 X 2 1 2 X X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 65KT 65KT 60KT 60KT 50KT 40KT 30KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BARRA NAVIDAD 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 2 7( 9) 18(27) 9(36) 3(39) X(39) X(39) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ISLA CLARION 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 22(31) 6(37) 2(39) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) $$ FORECASTER PASCH/ZELINSKY
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Summary for Hurricane DALILA (EP4/EP042013)
2013-07-03 16:41:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DALILA MOVING SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD... As of 8:00 AM PDT Wed Jul 3 the center of DALILA was located near 17.8, -108.0 with movement WSW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 987 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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Hurricane DALILA Public Advisory Number 16
2013-07-03 16:41:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT WED JUL 03 2013 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 031441 TCPEP4 BULLETIN HURRICANE DALILA ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 800 AM PDT WED JUL 03 2013 ...DALILA MOVING SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 108.0W ABOUT 255 MI...415 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 240 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DALILA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.0 WEST. DALILA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD TRACK WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ALTHOUGH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED...SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY DALILA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM NEAR ZIHUATANEJO TO CABO CORRIENTES. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH/ZELINSKY
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Hurricane DALILA Forecast Advisory Number 16
2013-07-03 16:41:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUL 03 2013 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 031440 TCMEP4 HURRICANE DALILA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 1500 UTC WED JUL 03 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 108.0W AT 03/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 240 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 108.0W AT 03/1500Z AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 107.8W FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 17.6N 108.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 17.2N 109.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 17.1N 110.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 17.1N 111.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 17.5N 114.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 18.5N 116.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 19.0N 119.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 108.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH/ZELINSKY
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