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Tropical Storm Rene Forecast Advisory Number 20
2020-09-12 04:40:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 12 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 120240 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM RENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020 0300 UTC SAT SEP 12 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 42.4W AT 12/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 20SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 42.4W AT 12/0300Z AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 41.9W FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 22.4N 44.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 20SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 24.1N 45.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 25.7N 47.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 26.8N 47.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 27.1N 47.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 26.8N 48.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 25.9N 50.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 24.8N 54.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N 42.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Rene Graphics
2020-09-12 01:41:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 11 Sep 2020 23:41:22 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 11 Sep 2020 23:41:22 GMT
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Tropical Storm Rene Forecast Discussion Number 19
2020-09-11 22:52:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Sep 11 2020 062 WTNT43 KNHC 112051 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Rene Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 500 PM AST Fri Sep 11 2020 Deep convection has increased over the western semicircle of the circulation and is re-forming near the center. Based on a blend of subjective Dvorak classifications and ADT values from UW-CIMSS, the current intensity estimate remains at 35 kt. Hopefully we will get a scatterometer pass over the system soon to give a better intensity estimate. Some strengthening is anticipated during the next day or so, but increasing shear should halt the intensification process, and bring about weakening, thereafter. The official intensity forecast is above the latest model consensus. Rene continues to move west-northwestward and should gradually turn to the right while it moves around the western periphery of a mid-level high pressure system for the next couple of days. In the latter half of the forecast period, a blocking high to the north and northwest of Rene should force the cyclone to turn toward the west and west-southwest. The new official track forecast has been shifted to the southwest of the previous one in 3-5 days, following the latest guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/2100Z 20.7N 41.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 12/0600Z 21.7N 42.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 12/1800Z 23.3N 44.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 13/0600Z 24.9N 46.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 13/1800Z 26.4N 47.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 14/0600Z 27.0N 47.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 14/1800Z 27.0N 48.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 15/1800Z 26.5N 50.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 16/1800Z 25.0N 53.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Tropical Storm Rene (AT3/AL182020)
2020-09-11 22:51:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...RENE SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 5:00 PM AST Fri Sep 11 the center of Rene was located near 20.7, -41.1 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Rene Public Advisory Number 19
2020-09-11 22:51:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Sep 11 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 112051 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rene Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 500 PM AST Fri Sep 11 2020 ...RENE SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.7N 41.1W ABOUT 1165 MI...1875 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rene was located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 41.1 West. Rene is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the northwest followed by a turn toward the north-northwest is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, but a weakening trend will likely begin by late Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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